Armageddon Versus Extinction

Note from the Editor : Some readers may feel that topics such as politics and religion are inappropriate for a scientific journal. Our "Conservation in Context" column, however, is intended to cover the entire spectrum of the context within which the science of conservation biology must operate. Thus, we freely and openly explore topics in this column that ordinarily are not addressed in scientific journals, to better understand the real-world constraints and opportunities that define how conservation science is applied in a complex world.     

Correlations among Extinction Risks Assessed by Different Systems of Threatened Species Categorization

Abstract:  Many different systems are used to assess levels of threat faced by species. Prominent ones are those used by the World Conservation Union, NatureServe, and the Florida Game and Freshwater Fish Commission (now the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission). These systems assign taxa a threat ranking by assessing their demographic and ecological characteristics. These threat rankings support the legislative protection of species and guide the placement of conservation programs in order of priority. It is not known, however, whether these assessment systems rank species in a similar order. To resolve this issue, we assessed 55 mainly vertebrate taxa with widely differing life histories under each of these systems and determined the rank correlations among them. Moderate, significant positive correlations were seen among the threat rankings provided by the three systems (correlations 0.58–0.69). Further, the threat rankings for taxa obtained using these systems were significantly correlated to their rankings based on predicted probability of extinction within 100 years as determined by population viability analysis (correlations 0.28–0.37). The different categorization systems, then, yield related but not identical threat rankings, and these rankings are associated with predicted extinction risk.     

Trends in Sex Ratios of Turtles in the United States: Implications of Road Mortality

Abstract:  Road mortality has been implicated as a significant demographic force in turtles, particularly for females, which are killed disproportionately on overland nesting movements. Moreover, the United States' road network has expanded dramatically over the last century. We therefore predicted that historical trends in sex ratios of turtle populations would be male biased. To test this prediction, we synthesized published estimates of population-level sex ratios in freshwater and terrestrial turtles in the United States (165 estimates for 36 species, published 1928–2003). Our analysis suggests that the proportion of males in populations has increased linearly ( p = 0.001); the trend in male bias is synchronized with the expansion of the surfaced portion of the road network since 1930; sex ratios became more male biased in states with higher densities of roads; and populations have become more male biased in aquatic species, in which movement differentials between males and females are greatest, and are least biased in semiaquatic and terrestrial species, in which overland movements are more comparable between sexes. Our results suggest an ongoing depletion of breeding females from wild turtle populations over the last century because of many factors, including, and perhaps chiefly, road mortality.     

Physiological and Morphological Response Patterns of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Populus deltoides</Emphasis> to Alluvial Groundwater Pumping

We examined the physiological and morphological response patterns of plains cottonwood [Populus deltoides subsp. monilifera (Aiton) Eck.] to acute water stress imposed by groundwater pumping. Between 3 and 27 July 1996, four large pumps were used to withdraw alluvial groundwater from a cottonwood forest along the South Platte River, near Denver, Colorado, USA. The study was designed as a stand-level, split-plot experiment with factorial treatments including two soil types (a gravel soil and a loam topsoil over gravel), two water table drawdown depths (∼0.5 m and >1.0 m), and one water table control (no drawdown) per soil type. Measurements of water table depth, soil water potential (Ψ_s), predawn and midday shoot water potential (Ψ_pd and Ψ_md), and D/H (deuterium/hydrogen) ratios of different water sources were made in each of six 600-m² plots prior to, during, and immediately following pumping. Two additional plots were established and measured to examine the extent to which surface irrigation could be used to mitigate the effects of deep drawdown on P. deltoides for each soil type. Recovery of tree water status following pumping was evaluated by measuring stomatal conductance (g _s ) and xylem water potential (Ψ_xp) on approximately hourly time steps from before dawn to mid-afternoon on 11 August 1996 in watered and unwatered, deep-drawdown plots on gravel soils. P. deltoides responded to abrupt alluvial water table decline with decreased shoot water potential followed by leaf mortality. Ψ_pd and percent leaf loss were significantly related to the magnitude of water table declines. The onset and course of these responses were influenced by short-term variability in surface and ground water levels, acting in concert with physiological and morphological adjustments. Decreases in Ψ_pd corresponded with increases in Ψ_md, suggesting shoot water status improved in response to stomatal closure and crown dieback. Crown dieback caused by xylem cavitation likely occurred when Ψ_pd reached −0.4 to −0.8 MPa. The application of surface irrigation allowed trees to maintain favorable water status with little or no apparent cavitation, even in deep-drawdown plots. Two weeks after the partial canopy dieback and cessation of pumping, g _s and Ψ_xp measurements indicated that water stress persisted in unwatered P. deltoides in deep-drawdown plots.     

Identifying and Managing Threatened Invertebrates through Assessment of Coextinction Risk

Abstract: Invertebrates with specific host species may have a high probability of extinction when their hosts have a high probability of extinction. Some of these invertebrates are more likely to go extinct than their hosts, and under some circumstances, specific actions to conserve the host may be detrimental to the invertebrate. A critical constraint to identifying such invertebrates is uncertainty about their level of host specificity. We used two host‐breadth models that explicitly incorporated uncertainty in the host specificity of an invertebrate species. We devised a decision protocol to identify actions that may increase the probability of persistence of a given dependent species. The protocol included estimates from the host‐breadth models and decision nodes to identify cothreatened species. We applied the models and protocol to data on 1055 insects (186 species) associated with 2 threatened (as designated by the Australian Government) plant species and 19 plant species that are not threatened to determine whether any insect herbivores have the potential to become extinct if the plant becomes extinct. According to the host‐breadth models, 18 species of insect had high host specificity to the threatened plant species. From these 18 insects, the decision protocol highlighted 6 species that had a high probability of extinction if their hosts were to become extinct (3% of all insects examined). The models and decision protocol have added objectivity and rigor to the process of deciding which dependent invertebrates require conservation action, particularly when dealing with largely unknown and speciose faunas.