Catastrophic Reproductive Failure, Terrestrial Survival, and Persistence of the Marbled Salamander

Abstract:  Wide variation in reproductive success is common among amphibians that breed in seasonal ponds, but persistence of adults can buffer against these fluctuations, particularly for long-lived species. We hypothesized that the frequent episodes of catastrophic failure of the marbled salamander ( Ambystoma opacum ) enhance the importance of high terrestrial survival. At Rainbow Bay in South Carolina reproductive success was poor (<1 metamorph/breeding female) in nearly half of the 22 years that the species bred. Complete failure occurred in 6 of 22 years. To study catastrophic failure, we adapted an age-structured, individual-based model with density-dependent growth and survival of larvae. The model was based on extensive data from local field studies and experiments. With consistently good survival in the pond stages, the simulated population required survival probabilities in the upland stages (juveniles and adults) near 0.5/year to persist and near 0.8/year to achieve the increases observed. Catastrophic failure, occurring randomly with probability 0.5/year, created additional fluctuations in the population, raised the thresholds of survival required for persistence, and caused extinction under conditions that were otherwise favorable. The marbled salamander at Rainbow Bay is not at great risk of extinction because of catastrophic failure, but the risk increases dramatically if life span is decreased or frequency of failure is increased. Any reduction in terrestrial survival will have deleterious consequences by reducing the breeding populations at equilibrium, even if it does not jeopardize persistence. Our model provides assessments of risk that can be applied to poorly studied species with similar life histories, such as the endangered flatwoods salamander ( A. cingulatum ).     

Effects of Historic Livestock Grazing on Vegetation at Chaco Culture National Historic Park, New Mexico

Abstract:   Livestock grazing is the most ubiquitous land use in western North America, yet it rarely has been studied in a controlled manner because of the lack of large areas free of grazing. We compared the ecological effects of three grazing treatments—long-term protection, short-term protection, and currently grazed—at Chaco Culture National Historic Park in northern New Mexico. Chaco has a long history of human habitation and is now one of the largest grazing exclosures in the American West. We studied the effects of livestock grazing on the cover of plants, soil crusts, and plant species richness at six sites with different potential natural vegetation. Species richness was higher under long-term protection than under current grazing at all six sites. Trends in shrub and grass response varied significantly across the six sites. Shrub cover increased with long-term protection at four upland sites, and grass cover increased with protection at four sites. The response of Chaco vegetation to release from grazing varied significantly according to each site's ecological potential, determined in part by edaphic and topographic characteristics. These nuances in vegetation response represent natural ecological variation and contrast with the notions of widespread shrub "invasion" often inferred in the past.     

Species Imperilment and Spatial Patterns of Development in the United States

Abstract:  Conservation biologists and others hypothesize that humankind's "ecological footprint" is affected not only by the sheer intensity of human activity but also by its spatial arrangement. We used a multivariate statistical model and state-level data to evaluate correlations between species imperilment and the level and spatial distribution of human settlement and infrastructure development in the United States. The level of human activity—measured by the number of people and households, incidence of roads, and intensity of nighttime lights—was significantly correlated with the ecological imperilment of species. Our regression models consistently showed that a 1% increase in the level of human activity across the United States was associated with about a 0.25% increase in the proportion of plant and animal species considered at risk of extinction by The Nature Conservancy. The distribution of human activity did not affect species imperilment. Our results point to rising levels of human activity—and not some particular (e.g., sprawling) distribution of human activity—as the most relevant anthropogenic factor explaining biodiversity loss in the United States.     

Targeting Conservation Action through Assessment of Protection and Exurban Threats

Abstract:   Landscape-level assessments of biodiversity strive to guide land-use planning and conservation activities by providing information about areas of high biodiversity value and low protection status. I developed a methodology to assess the level of threat to conservation of biodiversity to help guide conservation action. This method incorporates socioeconomic indicators of risk, including developed and roaded areas, and measures the proportion of conservation lands affected by developed areas. In addition, I developed a metric called conservation potential to measure the degree of fragmentation of patches caused by development. As an illustration I applied this methodology to Colorado (U.S.A.). Protection levels were determined by examining land ownership, resulting in protected lands (status levels 1 and 2) and unprotected lands (status levels 3 and 4). Areas were considered threatened (at risk) if a land-cover patch had >20% roaded area, >15% developed area, or was highly fragmented. Although 24 of 43 natural land-cover types were unprotected (49% of the state), 9 additional types were threatened. Combining conservation-status protection levels with patterns of threat targets the geographic area where conservation action is needed, provides a way to determine where so-called protected areas are at risk, and allows conservation strategies to be better refined.     

Designatable Units for Status Assessment of Endangered Species

Abstract:  Species status assessment and the conservation of biological diversity may require defining units below the species level to portray probabilities of extinction accurately and to help set priorities for conservation efforts. What those units should be has been debated in the scientific literature largely in terms of evolutionarily significant units (ESUs), but this discourse has had little impact on government policy with regard to status assessment. As with species concepts, the variously proposed ESU concepts have not been resolvable into a single approach. The need for a practicable procedure to identify infraspecific entities for status assignment is the motivation behind employing designatable units (DUs). In aid of a policy to prevent elements of biodiversity from becoming extinct or extirpated, DUs are determined during the process of resolving a species' conservation status according to broadly applicable guidelines. The procedure asks whether putative DUs are distinguishable based on a reliably established taxonomy or a well-corroborated phylogeny, compelling evidence of genetic distinction, range disjunction, and/or biogeographic distinction as long as extinction probabilities also differ. The language of the DU approach avoids wording that implies value judgments concerning evolutionary importance or significance. Because species conservation status assessment is not science but, rather, the use of science to further policy, DUs contribute to a precautionary approach to listing whereby status may be assessed even though knowledge of systematic relationships below the species level may be lacking or unresolved. The pragmatic approach of using DUs has been adopted by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada for status assessment of species under the Canadian Species at Risk Act.     

Conservation Value of Non-Native Banteng in Northern Australia

Abstract:  The global species extinction crisis has provided the impetus for elaborate translocation, captive breeding, and cloning programs, but more extreme actions may be necessary. We used mitochondrial DNA, Y-chromosome, and nuclear lactoferrin-encoding gene sequencing to identify a wild population of a pure-strain endangered bovid ( Bos javanicus ) introduced into northern Australia over 150 years ago. This places the Australian population in a different conservation category relative to its domesticated conspecific in Indonesia (i.e., Bali cattle) that has varying degrees of introgression from other domesticated Bos spp. The success of this endangered non-native species demonstrates that although risky, the deliberate introduction of threatened exotic species into non-native habitat may provide, under some circumstances, a biologically feasible option for conserving large herbivores otherwise imperiled in their native range.     

Fecundity as a Basis for Risk Assessment of Nonindigenous Freshwater Molluscs

Abstract:  The most efficient way to reduce future damages from nonindigenous species is to prevent the introduction of harmful species. Although ecologists have long sought to predict the identity of such species, recent methodological advances promise success where previous attempts failed. We applied recently developed risk assessment approaches to nonindigenous freshwater molluscs at two geographic scales: the Laurentian Great Lakes basin and the 48 contiguous states of the United States. We used data on natural history and biogeography to discriminate between established freshwater molluscs that are benign and those that constitute nuisances (i.e., cause environmental and/or economic damage). Two statistical techniques, logistic regression and categorical tree analysis, showed that nuisance status was positively associated with fecundity. Other aspects of natural history and biogeography did not significantly affect likelihood of becoming a nuisance. We then used the derived statistical models to predict the chance that 15 mollusc species not yet in natural ecosystems would cause damage if they become established. We also tested whether time since establishment is related to the likelihood that nonindigenous mollusc species in the Great Lakes and United States would cause negative impacts. No significant relationship was evident at the U.S. scale, but recently established molluscs within the Great Lakes were more likely to cause negative impacts. This may reflect changing environmental conditions, changing patterns of trade, or may be an indication of "invasional meltdown." Our quantitative analyses could be extended to other taxa and ecosystems and offer a number of improvements over the qualitative risk assessments currently used by U.S. (and other) government agencies.