Skill and uncertainty of a regional air quality model ensemble

Recently several regional air quality projects were carried out to support the negotiation under the Clean Air For Europe (CAFE) programme by predicting the impact of emission control policies with an ensemble of models. Within these projects, CITYDELTA and EURODELTA, the fate of air quality at the scale of European cities or that of the European continent was studied using several models. In this article we focus on the results of EURODELTA. The predictive skill of the ensemble of models is described for ozone, nitrogen dioxide and secondary inorganic compounds, and the uncertainty in air quality modelling is examined through the model ensemble spread of concentrations.For ozone daily maxima the ensemble spread origin differs from one region to another. In the neighbourhood of cities or in mountainous areas the spread of predicted values does not span the range of observed data, due to poorly resolved emissions or complex-terrain meteorology. By contrast in Atlantic and North Sea coastal areas the spread of predicted values is found to be larger than the observations. This is attributed to large differences in the boundary conditions used in the different models. For NO₂ daily averages the ensemble spread is generally too small compared with observations. This is because models miss highest values occurring in stagnant meteorology in stable boundary layers near cities. For secondary particulate matter compounds the simulated concentration spread is more balanced, observations falling nearly equiprobably within the ensemble, and the spread originates both from meteorology and aerosol chemistry and thermodynamics.     

Limitations of Long-Path Averaging Instruments

ABSTRACT

Long-path averaging instruments measure the average velocity or concentration of a substance or substances over an averaging path. These measurements are then often used for calculation of the average concentration and mass flow rate of the substance. The purpose of this paper is to describe some of the limitations of these instruments and to suggest ways in which these limitations can be minimized. Two limitations were examined: measuring concentration in a single dimension (e.g., ignoring the variation in concentration over the width of the sample plane), and deriving an average concentration without considering velocity effects. The resultant errors will be application-specific.

Estimates of the second source of error can be obtained from the covariance of concentration and velocity profiles over the path length. Unfortunately, suitable field data were not available, and to illustrate the method, estimates of the error were obtained for a range of possible concentration and velocity profiles. Errors of 50% or greater in the mass flow were incurred for the concentration and velocity profiles considered. This error was reduced to a negligible level by segmenting the averaging path length. It is recommended that velocity and concentration profiles be obtained for a broad range of applications to enable the importance of covariance errors to be better assessed.     

Compliance with and ecosystem function of biodiversity offsets in North American and European freshwaters

Land-use change via human development is a major driver of biodiversity loss. To reduce these impacts, billions of dollars are spent on biodiversity offsets. However, studies evaluating offset project effectiveness that examine components such as the overall compliance and function of projects remain rare. We reviewed 577 offsetting projects in freshwater ecosystems that included the metrics project size, type of aquatic system (e.g., wetland and creek), offsetting measure (e.g., enhancement, restoration, and creation), and an assessment of the projects’ compliance and functional success. Project information was obtained from scientific and government databases and gray literature. Despite considerable investment in offsetting projects, crucial problems persisted. Although compliance and function were related to each other, a high level of compliance did not guarantee a high degree of function. However, large projects relative to area had better function than small projects. Function improved when projects targeted productivity or specific ecosystem features and when multiple complementary management targets were in place. Restorative measures were more likely to achieve targets than creating entirely new ecosystems. Altogether the relationships we found highlight specific ecological processes that may help improve offsetting outcomes.     

Cost and Benefits of Road Dust Control in Seattle’s Industrial Valley

The paving of gravel roads with an average daily traffic (ADT) over 15 is a least cost method for reducing suspended particulate In the air in Seattle. It is also a good business investment when the ADT exceeds 100. Clean roads, gutters, and parking lots may reduce or eliminate Seattle’s most serious environmental constraint on economic development. In a study done in Seattle’s Duwamish Valley the impact of road dust on air quality was measured by obtaining dust emission factors for vehicles traveling at 10, 20, and 30 mph on gravel as well as dusty paved roads. A University of Washington Mark II Cascade Impactor was mounted on a trailer and towed behind a car to determine the concentration and size distribution of this dust. It was found that each vehicle mile at 20 mph on unpaved roads contributed 7.0 Ib of dust to the air, 1.9 Ib consisting of particles smaller than 10 microns in diameter and 0.24 Ib below 2 microns. Three to eight percent by weight of this respirable dust was free silica, which is potentially toxic. The quantity of dust generated varies as an exponent of the speed. The concentrations of dust found in the air near a dry gravel road with an ADT of 250 reached 584 μg/m3 for an 8 hr work day. A 24 hr suspended particulate reading of 463 μg/m3 total and 3.83 μg/m3 free silica was found beside a dusty paved road with an ADT of 18,000. Nineteen miles of gravel roads and 110 miles of dusty paved roads contributed 2700 tons/year of particulate, of which 700 tons were below 10 microns. Paving or oiling such roads will produce benefits of $3,881,000 yearly in household cleaning, health care, sewer, vehicle operation, and road maintenance costs as well as an increase in property values. Clean roads can lower the cost of clean air in Seattle.     

Wheat leaf epicuticular characteristics as rust inhibitors

Abstract

Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) trichomes influence wheat leaf rust (Puccinia recondita Rob. ex Desm.) germling elongation as a function of the external element (i.e. ‐ Ca, Si, P, CI) concentration. Basal cells of multicellular trichomes have a high Ca content; and, Ca²⁺ has been shown to inhibit elongation of primary roots. Evaluation of epicuticular wax composition in the intracellular areas of epidermal cells might explain the disorganized growth in those locations.     

Assessing the Potential Impacts to Riparian Ecosystems Resulting from Hemlock Mortality in Great Smoky Mountains National Park

Hemlock Woolly Adelgid (Adelges tsugae) is spreading across forests in eastern North America, causing mortality of eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis [L.] Carr.) and Carolina hemlock (Tsuga caroliniana Engelm.). The loss of hemlock from riparian forests in Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP) may result in significant physical, chemical, and biological alterations to stream environments. To assess the influence of riparian hemlock stands on stream conditions and estimate possible impacts from hemlock loss in GSMNP, we paired hardwood- and hemlock-dominated streams to examine differences in water temperature, nitrate concentrations, pH, discharge, and available photosynthetic light. We used a Geographic Information System (GIS) to identify stream pairs that were similar in topography, geology, land use, and disturbance history in order to isolate forest type as a variable. Differences between hemlock- and hardwood-dominated streams could not be explained by dominant forest type alone as forest type yields no consistent signal on measured conditions of headwater streams in GSMNP. The variability in the results indicate that other landscape variables, such as the influence of understory Rhododendron species, may exert more control on stream conditions than canopy composition. The results of this study suggest that the replacement of hemlock overstory with hardwood species will have minimal impact on long-term stream conditions, however disturbance during the transition is likely to have significant impacts. Management of riparian forests undergoing hemlock decline should, therefore, focus on facilitating a faster transition to hardwood-dominated stands to minimize long-term effects on water quality.     

Pollutant Transport During a Regional O3 Episode in the Mid-Atlantic States

ABSTRACT

Ozone (O₃) concentrations in the Baltimore-Washington (B-W) metropolitan area frequently exceed the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) in the summer months. The most extreme O₃ events occur in multi-day high O₃ episodes.¹ These events can be regional in scale, with O₃ concentrations exceeding the NAAQS at numerous locations along the eastern U.S. seaboard, and are typically associated with slow-moving or stagnant high pressure systems.^2-5 In the B-W region, the most extreme events typically occur with surface high pressure overhead or just west of the region and an upper air high-pressure area (ridge) to the west or northwest.¹ Besides providing conditions conducive to local O₃ production (subsidence and strong low-level inversions, weak horizontal winds, little cloud cover), this weather pattern may also result in transport of O₃ and its precursors from heavily industrialized areas west and north of the B-W region. In this paper, observations and back trajectories made during the severe regional O₃ event of July 12-15, 1995, are used to confirm the hypothesis that significant regional-scale transport of O₃ and its precursors occur during extreme O₃ events of the standard type in the B-W area.     

Source, concentration, and distribution of elemental mercury in the atmosphere in Toronto, Canada

Atmospheric gaseous elemental mercury [GEM] at 1.8, 4, and 59 m above ground, in parking lots, and in indoor and outdoor air was measured in Toronto City, Canada from May 2008-July 2009. The average GEM value at 1.8 m was 1.89 ± 0.62 ng m(-3). The GEM values increased with elevation. The average GEM in underground parking lots ranged from 1.37 to 7.86 ng m(-3) and was higher than those observed from the surface parking lots. The GEM in the indoor air ranged from 1.21 to 28.50 ng m(-3), was higher in the laboratories than in the offices, and was much higher than that in the outdoor air. All these indicate that buildings serve as sources of mercury to the urban atmosphere. More studies are needed to estimate the contribution of urban areas to the atmospheric mercury budget and the impact of indoor air on outdoor air quality and human health.     

An investigation into the likely impact of oxy-coal retrofit on fire-side corrosion behavior in utility boilers

Real-time electrochemical measurements of corrosion rate were performed to evaluate the respective corrosion rates of one boiler waterwall material (SA210) and three boiler superheater materials (T22, P91 and 347H) while firing Utah Western bituminous, Illinois high-sulfur bituminous and Powder River Basin (PRB) sub-bituminous coals in a 1.5 MW pulverized coal-fired furnace. The raw average measured corrosion rates were very low, between 0.0003 and 0.016 mm/year (0.012 and 0.63 mils/year) for most materials under air- and oxy-fired conditions. For some high-sulfur conditions measured corrosion rates were as high as 0.72 mm/year (28 mils/year). Waterwall corrosion rates decreased consistently when converting from air- to oxy-firing while superheater corrosion rates generally increased, although they were less than twice the air-fired rate under most conditions. Corrosion rates for the lower alloyed materials (SA210 and T22) increased significantly during transients from reducing to oxidizing conditions. Measured increases in the corrosion rate of 347H material under high sulfur and low temperature conditions, and associated decrease in corrosion rate at higher temperatures on this alloy, were consistent with the formation of trisulphates in the superheater deposits. The increase of corrosion rate with increased metal temperatures was demonstrated, as was the consistently repeatable nature of the observed results.