Accounting for Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Case Study of Hector's Dolphin Mortality due to Gillnet Entanglement

Abstract: Uncertainties about biological data and human effects often delay decisions on management of endangered species. Some decision makers argue that uncertainty about the risk posed to a species should lead to precautionary decisions, whereas others argue for delaying protective measures until there is strong evidence that a human activity is having a serious effect on the species. We have developed a method that incorporates uncertainty into the estimate of risk so that delays in action can be reduced or eliminated. We illustrate our method with an actual situation of a deadlock over how to manage Hector's dolphin ( Cephalorhychus hectori ). The management question is whether sufficient risk is posed to the dolphins by mortalities in gillnets to warrant regulating the fisheries. In our quantitative risk assessment, we use a population model that incorporates both demographic ( between-individual) and environmental ( between-year) stochasticity. We incorporate uncertainty in estimates of model parameters by repeatedly running the model for different combinations of survival and reproductive rates. Each value is selected at random from a probability distribution that represents the uncertainty in estimating that parameter. Before drawing conclusions, we perform sensitivity analyses to see whether model assumptions alter conclusions and to recommend priorities for future research. In this example, uncertainty did not alter the conclusion that there is a high risk of population decline if current levels of gillnet mortality continue. Sensitivity analyses revealed this to be a robust conclusion. Thus, our analysis removes uncertainty in the scientific data as an excuse for inaction.     

Materials,fuels, upgrading,economy, and life cycle assessment of the pyrolysis of algal and lignocellulosic biomass: a review

Climate change issues are calling for advanced methods to produce materials and fuels in a carbon–neutral and circular way. For instance, biomass pyrolysis has been intensely investigated during the last years. Here we review the pyrolysis of algal and lignocellulosic biomass with focus on pyrolysis products and mechanisms, oil upgrading, combining pyrolysis and anaerobic digestion, economy, and life cycle assessment. Products include oil, gas, and biochar. Upgrading techniques comprise hot vapor filtration, solvent addition, emulsification, esterification and transesterification, hydrotreatment, steam reforming, and the use of supercritical fluids. We examined the economic viability in terms of profitability, internal rate of return, return on investment, carbon removal service, product pricing, and net present value. We also reviewed 20 recent studies of life cycle assessment. We found that the pyrolysis method highly influenced product yield, ranging from 9.07 to 40.59% for oil, from 10.1 to 41.25% for biochar, and from 11.93 to 28.16% for syngas. Feedstock type, pyrolytic temperature, heating rate, and reaction retention time were the main factors controlling the distribution of pyrolysis products. Pyrolysis mechanisms include bond breaking, cracking, polymerization and re-polymerization, and fragmentation. Biochar from residual forestry could sequester 2.74 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per ton biochar when applied to the soil and has thus the potential to remove 0.2–2.75 gigatons of atmospheric carbon dioxide annually. The generation of biochar and bio-oil from the pyrolysis process is estimated to be economically feasible.

     

Recycling food and agriculture by-products to mitigate climate change: a review

Food loss and waste is a major issue affecting food security, environmental pollution, producer profitability, consumer prices, and climate change. About 1.3 billion tons of food products are yearly lost globally, with China producing approximately 20 million tons of soybean dregs annually. Here, we review food and agricultural byproducts with emphasis on the strategies to convert this waste into valuable materials. Byproducts can be used for animal and plant nutrition, biogas production, food, extraction of oils and bioactive substances, and production of vinegar, wine, edible coatings and organic fertilizers. For instance, bioactive compounds represent approximately 8–20% of apple pomace, 5–17% of orange peel, 10–25% of grape seeds, 3–15% of pomegranate peel, and 2–13% of date palm seeds. Similarly, the pharmaceutical industry uses approximately 6.5% of the total output of gelatin derived from fish bones and animal skin. Animals fed with pomegranate peel and olive pomace improved the concentration of deoxyribonucleic acid and protein, the litter size, the milk yield, and nest characteristics. Biogas production amounts to 57.1% using soybean residue, 53.7% using papaya peel, and 49.1% using sugarcane bagasse.

     

Obtaining species: sample size considerations

Suppose fish are to be sampled from a stream. A fisheries biologist might ask one of the following three questions: ‘How many fish do I need to catch in order to see all of the species?’, ‘How many fish do I need to catch in order to see all species whose relative frequency is more than 5%?’, or ‘How many fish do I need to catch in order to see a member from each of the species A, B, and C?’. This paper offers a practical solution to such questions by setting a target sample size designed to achieve desired results with known probability. We present three sample size methods, one we call ‘exact’ and the others approximate. Each method is derived under assumed multinomial sampling, and requires (at least approximate) independence of draws and (usually) a large population. The minimum information needed to compute one of the approximate methods is the estimated relative frequency of the rarest species of interest. Total number of species is not needed. Choice of a sample size method depends largely on available computer resources. One approximation (called the ‘Monte Carlo approximation’) gets within ±6 units of exact sample size, but usually requires 20–30 minutes of computer time to compute. The second approximation (called the ‘ratio approximation’) can be computed manually and has relative error under 5% when all species are desired, but can be as much as 50% or more too high when exact sample size is small. Statistically, this problem is an application of the ‘sequential occupancy problem’. Three examples are given which illustrate the calculations so that a reader not interested in technical details can apply our results.     

Stable lead isotope profiles in smelter and general urban communities: a comparison of environmental and blood measures

High-precision lead isotope ratios and lead concentrations have been compared statistically and graphically in women of child-bearing age (n = 77) from two smelter communities and one general urban community to evaluate the relative contributions to blood lead of tissue lead stores and lead from the contemporaneous environment (soil, floor dust, indoor airborne dust, water, food). Blood lead (PbB) contents were generally low (e.g. <10 g dL^–1). Statistically significant isotopic differences in blood and environmental samples were observed between the three cities although isotopic differences in blood for individual subjects living in close proximity (200 m radius) was as large as the differences within a city. No single environmental measure dominated the biological isotope profile and in many cases the low levels of blood lead meant that their isotopic profiles could be easily perturbed by relatively small changes of environmental exposure. Apportioning of sources using lead isotopes is possibly not feasible, nor cost effective, when blood lead levels are <5 g dL^–1. Interpretations based on statistical analyses of city-wide data do not give the same conclusions as when the houses are considered individually. Aggregating data from multiple subjects in a study such as this obscures potentially useful information. Most of the measures employed in this study, and many other similar studies, are markers of only short-to-medium integration of lead exposure. Serial sampling of blood and longer sampling times, especially for household variables, should provide more meaningful information.     

A seasonal study of arsenic in groundwater,Snohomish County,Washington, USA

A series of arsenic poisonings near Granite Falls in Snohomish County, Washington, were identified during 1985–87. An initial investigation revealed the source of arsenic exposure to be high levels of arsenic in well water. A large number of wells in eastern Snohomish County were tested, residents were interviewed and sources of contamination, both natural and man-made, were investigated. More than 70 private drinking-water wells were found to contain elevated levels of arsenic . One well contained 33 mg As L^–1. The finding of elevated arsenic levels in a previously approved drinking-water well for a restaurant, plus suggestions of symptoms consistent with arsenic poisoning among people with wells with no detectable arsenic, raised concern over possible temporal variation in arsenic levels. To evaluate this temporal variation, a 12-month study of arsenic in groundwater was conducted in selected wells near Granite Falls. The 12-month study of 26 wells, conducted between February 1988 and January 1989, found arsenic levels for individual wells to vary from one to 19 fold over time. Because of this variability, four out of the eight wells with arsenic levels close to the Maximum Contamination Level (MCL) of 0.050 mg As L^–1 would have been considered safe on the basis of a single sample, but would have exceeded the MCL at another time of the year.In areas with a high occurrence of arsenic contaminated drinking water, approval of well water prior to the sale of a house or issuance of a building permit which is based on a single arsenic test may result in later findings of unacceptable drinking water. When the arsenic is near the MCL, it may be prudent to follow well-water arsenic concentrations over time to assure that the arsenic level remains within acceptable bounds. If lower arsenic standards are adopted for drinking water, the issue of temporal variation around the standard will become a matter of more widespread concern.To whom correspondence should be addressed. The contents of this paper do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the US Environmental Protection Agency.     

Non-timber forest products and village livelihoods in Rajasthan,India: adaptation in a changing environment

This paper presents the results of research conducted between 2009 and 2014 in the village of Khanda Sharol in the state of Rajasthan, India. Our research objective was to determine how the livelihoods of village residents have been affected by the intensification of forest use, and the resulting loss of domestic access to traditionally used forest resources. Results indicate that changes in forest cover have resulted in a loss of livelihood options for village residents. Yet rather than being victimized by environmental change processes, this paper shows how villagers have responded by partnering with public and private actors to develop a community protected forest area that is now helping villagers to meet their livelihood needs. These findings suggest that sustainable livelihoods in rural regions of India require committed and scaled approaches involving local, public, and private actors.     

21世纪可替代脊椎动物进行生态毒性测试的方法：过去二十年的发展和现状综述

替代脊椎动物进行化学物质和污染物危害评估的方法已成为越来越重要的需求。现在首先要考虑的是当启动一个脊椎动物生态毒性测试,必须确保不必要的脊椎动物生物的使用尽可能最小化。对于一些监管目的,脊椎动物的使用对环境风险评估(ERA)已经被禁止,而在其他情况下生物测试的数量已经大大减少了,或者测试程序严格精简了。然而,想要获得能够完全替代脊椎动物提供环境危害数据的方法仍有很长的路要走。动物替代品的发展不仅仅是基于道德的考虑,也可以降低执行脊椎动物生态毒性测试的成本以及在某些情况下能够提供更好的信息旨在改进环境风险评估。本文集中综述了在过去的几十年里生态毒性评估替代方法所发生的重大的进展。
精选自Adam Lillicrap, Scott Belanger, Natalie Burden, David Du Pasquier, Michelle R. Embry, Marlies Halder, Mark A. Lampi, Lucy Lee, Teresa Norberg-King, Barnett A. Rattner, Kristin Schirmer, Paul Thomas. Alternative approaches to vertebrate ecotoxicity tests in the 21st century: a review of developments over the last two decades and current status. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: Volume 35, Issue 11, pages 2637–2646, November 2016. DOI: 10.1002/etc.3603
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/etc.3603/full