Using environmental heterogeneity to plan for sea‐level rise

Environmental heterogeneity is increasingly being used to select conservation areas that will provide for future biodiversity under a variety of climate scenarios. This approach, termed conserving nature's stage (CNS), assumes environmental features respond to climate change more slowly than biological communities, but will CNS be effective if the stage were to change as rapidly as the climate? We tested the effectiveness of using CNS to select sites in salt marshes for conservation in coastal Georgia (U.S.A.), where environmental features will change rapidly as sea level rises. We calculated species diversity based on distributions of 7 bird species with a variety of niches in Georgia salt marshes. Environmental heterogeneity was assessed across six landscape gradients (e.g., elevation, salinity, and patch area). We used 2 approaches to select sites with high environmental heterogeneity: site complementarity (environmental diversity [ED]) and local environmental heterogeneity (environmental richness [ER]). Sites selected based on ER predicted present‐day species diversity better than randomly selected sites (up to an 8.1% improvement), were resilient to areal loss from SLR (1.0% average areal loss by 2050 compared with 0.9% loss of randomly selected sites), and provided habitat to a threatened species (0.63 average occupancy compared with 0.6 average occupancy of randomly selected sites). Sites selected based on ED predicted species diversity no better or worse than random and were not resilient to SLR (2.9% average areal loss by 2050). Despite the discrepancy between the 2 approaches, CNS is a viable strategy for conservation site selection in salt marshes because the ER approach was successful. It has potential for application in other coastal areas where SLR will affect environmental features, but its performance may depend on the magnitude of geological changes caused by SLR. Our results indicate that conservation planners that had heretofore excluded low‐lying coasts from CNS planning could include coastal ecosystems in regional conservation strategies.     

Probabilistic Flood Inundation Forecasting Using Rating Curve Libraries

One approach for performing uncertainty assessment in flood inundation modeling is to use an ensemble of models with different conceptualizations, parameters, and initial and boundary conditions that capture the factors contributing to uncertainty. However, the high computational expense of many hydraulic models renders their use impractical for ensemble forecasting. To address this challenge, we developed a rating curve library method for flood inundation forecasting. This method involves pre‐running a hydraulic model using multiple inflows and extracting rating curves, which prescribe a relation between streamflow and stage at various cross sections along a river reach. For a given streamflow, flood stage at each cross section is interpolated from the pre‐computed rating curve library to delineate flood inundation depths and extents at a lower computational cost. In this article, we describe the workflow for our rating curve library method and the Rating Curve based Automatic Flood Forecasting (RCAFF) software that automates this workflow. We also investigate the feasibility of using this method to transform ensemble streamflow forecasts into local, probabilistic flood inundation delineations for the Onion and Shoal Creeks in Austin, Texas. While our results show water surface elevations from RCAFF are comparable to those from the hydraulic models, the ensemble streamflow forecasts used as inputs to RCAFF are the largest source of uncertainty in predicting observed floods.     

Determination of optimum polymeric coagulant in palm oil mill effluent coagulation using multiple-objective optimisation on the basis of ratio analysis (MOORA)

The main limitation of a conventional palm oil mill effluent (POME) ponding system lies in its inability to completely decolourise effluent. Decolourisation of effluent is aesthetically and environmentally crucial. However, determination of the optimum process parameters is becoming more complex with the increase of the number of coagulants and responses. The primary objective of this study is to determine the optimum polymeric coagulant in the coagulation–flocculation process of palm oil mill effluent by considering all output responses, namely lignin–tannin, low molecular mass coloured compounds (LMMCC), chemical oxygen demand (COD), ammonia nitrogen (NH₃-N), pH and conductivity. Here, multiple-objective optimisation on the basis of ratio analysis (MOORA) is employed to discretely measure multiple response characteristics of five different types of coagulants as a function of assessment value. The optimum coagulant is determined based on the highest assessment value and was identified as QF25610 (cationic polyacrylamide). On the other hand, the lowest assessment value was represented by AN1800 (anionic polyacrylamide). This study highlights the simplicity of MOORA approach in handling various input and output parameters, and it may be useful in other wastewater treatment processes as well.     

Modelling remediation scenarios in historical mining catchments

Local remediation measures, particularly those undertaken in historical mining areas, can often be ineffective or even deleterious because erosion and sedimentation processes operate at spatial scales beyond those typically used in point-source remediation. Based on realistic simulations of a hybrid landscape evolution model combined with stochastic rainfall generation, we demonstrate that similar remediation strategies may result in differing effects across three contrasting European catchments depending on their topographic and hydrologic regimes. Based on these results, we propose a conceptual model of catchment-scale remediation effectiveness based on three basic catchment characteristics: the degree of contaminant source coupling, the ratio of contaminated to non-contaminated sediment delivery, and the frequency of sediment transport events.     

Development of vegetative and generative organs in magnetic orientation types of radish in a weak permanent magnetic field

Experiments have been performed to evaluate the impact of weak permanent horizontal magnetic field of about 400 A/m on seed formation in the main magnetic orientation types of radish, the north-south (NS) and west-east (WE) types. The results show that external magnetic field exposure retards plant progression through all stages of ontogeny but does not alter the ratio of NS and WE types. Under its effect, the numbers of pods and seeds and seed weight decrease in the NS-type but increase in the WS-type plants. Therefore, external magnetic field acts as an ecological factor that differentiates the responses of radish plants depending on the type of their magnetic orientation. Differences in the sensitivity of plants to magnetic field exposure are explained by specific features of their physiological status.     

The WTO,ecology, and Russia: The time to make decisions

The relationship between the principle of free trade and nature conservation is one of the most acute and multifaceted problems in international business. The diversity of WTO activities implies the necessity of interdisciplinary studies utilizing the expertise and experience of specialists in international law and ecologists. In this paper, provisions of the WTO set of agreements and procedures for dispute settlement within the WTO framework are considered as applied to environmental protection.     

Seasonal dynamics of heart rate variability in three murine rodent species

Seasonal dynamics of heart rate variability in individuals of late summer and autumn generations have been studied in three rodent species kept in a vivarium: the striped field mouse (Apodemus agrarius), bank vole (Clethrionomys glareolus), and northern red-backed vole (Cl. rutilus). It has been shown that the cardiac function of the rodents in autumn and winter is mainly controlled by autonomic mechanisms: the heart rate is slow, cardiovascular control systems are relaxed. During the winter-spring transition, the role of central cardiovascular circuits increases because of the necessity to activate all body systems by spring.     

Climate change impacts on vegetation and water cycle in the Euro-Mediterranean region,studied by a likelihood approach

Scientific community and policy-makers share the common interest in identifying and evaluating potential impacts of climate change on ecosystems, relying mainly on probabilistic methods of exploring the risks. In this perspective, the concept of ensemble forecasting makes possible to handle uncertainties associated with climate risk analysis by focusing on a range of potential or probable impact scenarios rather than actualizing a single case. In this paper, an ensemble of simulations based on the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) model was used to investigate the uncertainty upon predictions of the future Euro-Mediterranean vegetation distribution, carbon dynamics, and water budget. Twenty simulations from past to future were based on the combination of different climate inputs, vegetation model parameterizations, and configurations. The evaluation of results combined the separate deterministic future projections from the LPJ model into a single probabilistic projection, associating a likelihood degree in accordance with the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change terminology. Results projected a general critical situation in terms of water availability, made more serious if considering that also the occurrence of extreme-related events, e.g., fires, is expected to become more frequent as favored by more recurrent drought episodes. Although more uncomfortable climate conditions were projected for vegetation, net primary production (NPP) was predicted to increase due to the potential enrichment of CO₂ in atmosphere and its fertilization effects on vegetation. The combination of rising NPP and fire frequency may shape the carbon cycle components, as the carbon losses by fire also were projected to increase.     

Probabilistic impacts of climate change on flood frequency using response surfaces II: Scotland

This paper uses a sensitivity framework approach to look at the probabilistic impacts of climate change on 20-year return period flood peaks, by applying a set of typical response surfaces alongside the probabilistic UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) for 10 river-basin regions over Scotland. The first paper of the pair used the same approach for 10 river-basin regions over England and Wales. This paper develops the methodology for Scotland, by first enabling better estimation of the response type of Scottish catchments. Then, as for England and Wales, the potential range of impacts is shown for different types of catchment in each river-basin region in Scotland, and regional average impact ranges are estimated. Results show clear differences in impacts between catchments of different types and between regions. The Argyll and West Highland regions show the highest impacts, while the North-East Scotland region shows the lowest impacts. The overall ranges are generally smaller for Scotland than England and Wales.     

Riparian rehabilitation planning in an urban–rural gradient: Integrating social needs and ecological conditions

In the present context of global change and search for sustainability, we detected a gap between restoration and society: local communities are usually only considered as threats or disturbances when planning for restoration. To bridge this gap, we propose a landscape design framework for planning riparian rehabilitation in an urban–rural gradient. A spatial multi-criteria analysis was used to assess the priority of riversides by considering two rehabilitation objectives simultaneously—socio-environmental and ecological—and two sets of criteria were designed according to these objectives. The assessment made it possible to identify 17 priority sites for riparian rehabilitation that were associated with different conditions along the gradient. The double goal setting enabled a dual consideration of citizens, both as beneficiaries and potential impacts to rehabilitation, and the criteria selected incorporated the multi-dimensional nature of the environment. This approach can potentially be adapted and implemented in any other anthropic–natural interface throughout the world.