Incorporating Uncertainty into Management Models for Marine Mammals

Abstract: Good management models and good models for understanding biology differ in basic philosophy. Management models must facilitate management decisions despite large amounts of uncertainty about the managed populations. Such models must be based on parameters that can be estimated readily, must explicitly account for uncertainty, and should be simple to understand and implement. In contrast, biological models are designed to elucidate the workings of biology and should not be constrained by management concerns. We illustrate the need to incorporate uncertainty in management models by reviewing the inadequacy of using standard biological models to manage marine mammals in the United States. Past management was based on a simple model that, although it may have represented population dynamics adequately, failed as a management tool because the parameter that triggered management action was extremely difficult to estimate for the majority of populations. Uncertainty in parameter estimation resulted in few conservation actions. We describe a recently adopted management scheme that incorporates uncertainty and its resulting implementation. The approach used in this simple management scheme, which was tested by using simulation models, incorporates uncertainty and mandates monitoring abundance and human-caused mortality. Although the entire scheme may be suitable for application to some terrestrial and marine problems, two features are broadly applicable: the incorporation of uncertainty through simulations of management and the use of quantitative management criteria to translate verbal objectives into levels of acceptable risk.     

Shifts in Microbial Communities, Microbial Biomass and Organic Matter Mineralization for Three Mediterranean Soils Contaminated By Metals

Microbial communities (phospholipid fatty acid pattern, bacterial growing strategies, eco-physiological index (EPI) and total bacteria counts, as a number of heterotrophic cuhurable bacteria), substrate-induced respiration (SIR), and nitrogen mineralization were studied in three Mediterranean soils at three different depth levels (A, B and C). Soils were experimentally treated with a final concentration of 1000 ppm of trace metals (Cu²⁺, Zn²⁺, Al³⁺, Fe²⁺, Pb²⁺, Ni²⁺, Mn²⁺, Cr³⁺ and Cd²⁺). Soils were stored in 571 plastic containers for one year, and watered with 1001 during this period. Leachate was recovered through a bottom tap. Samples of the three depths were studied. Soil microbial communities showed different effects to other studies presented in the literature, but carried out on non-Mediterranean soils. Dramatic differences were found between treated soils and untreated ones, but not between soils or horizons. the treated soil displayed a decrease in CFUs, SIR N-mineralization and EPI together with a dominance of r-growing strategists. the relative moles percent of several PLFAs, especially 15:0, 16: 1ω7, cy17: 0, br18:0 and 18: 1ω7 decreased because of the pollution of soils, whereas 10Me16, 18:2ω6, cy19:0, i16:0 and br17:0 showed higher values than in untreated soils.     

Phytostabilization of semiarid soils residually contaminated with trace elements using by-products: sustainability and risks

We investigated the efficiency of various by-products (sugarbeet lime, biosolid compost and leonardite), based on single or repeated applications to field plots, on the establishment of a vegetation cover compatible with a stabilization strategy on a multi-element (As, Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn) contaminated soil 4-6 years after initial amendment applications. Results indicate that the need for re-treatment is amendment- and element-dependent; in some cases, a single application may reduce trace element concentrations in above-ground biomass and enhance the establishment of a healthy vegetation cover. Amendment performance as evaluated by % cover, biomass and number of colonizing taxa differs; however, changes in plant community composition are not necessarily amendment-specific. Although the translocation of trace elements to the plant biotic compartment is greater in re-vegetated areas, overall loss of trace elements due to soil erosion and plant uptake is usually smaller compared to that in bare soil.     

Integrating Landscape Analysis and Planning: A Multi-Scale Approach for Oriented Management of Tourist Recreation

Tourism and landscape are interdependent concepts. Nature- and culture-based tourism are now quite well developed activities and can constitute an excellent way of exploiting the natural resources of certain areas, and should therefore be considered as key objectives in landscape planning and management in a growing number of countries. All of this calls for careful evaluation of the effects of tourism on the territory. This article focuses on an integrated spatial method for landscape analysis aimed at quantifying the relationship between preferences of visitors and landscape features. The spatial expression of the model relating types of leisure and recreational preferences to the potential capacity of the landscape to meet them involves a set of maps showing degrees of potential visitor satisfaction. The method constitutes a useful tool for the design of tourism planning and management strategies, with landscape conservation as a reference.     

A novel approach to predict aquatic toxicity from molecular structure

The main aim of the study was to develop quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models for the prediction of aquatic toxicity using atom-based non-stochastic and stochastic linear indices. The used dataset consist of 392 benzene derivatives, separated into training and test sets, for which toxicity data to the ciliate Tetrahymena pyriformis were available. Using multiple linear regression, two statistically significant QSAR models were obtained with non-stochastic (R2=0.791 and s=0.344) and stochastic (R2=0.799 and s=0.343) linear indices. A leave-one-out (LOO) cross-validation procedure was carried out achieving values of q2=0.781 (scv=0.348) and q2=0.786 (scv=0.350), respectively. In addition, a validation through an external test set was performed, which yields significant values of Rpred2 of 0.762 and 0.797. A brief study of the influence of the statistical outliers in QSAR's model development was also carried out. Finally, our method was compared with other approaches implemented in the Dragon software achieving better results. The non-stochastic and stochastic linear indices appear to provide an interesting alternative to costly and time-consuming experiments for determining toxicity.     

Mercury concentrations in wild mink (Mustela vison) and river otters (Lontra canadensis) collected from eastern and Atlantic Canada: relationship to age and parasitism

Total mercury (Hg) concentrations were measured in the fur, brain and liver of wild mink (Mustela vison) and river otters (Lontra canadensis) collected from eastern and Atlantic Canada. Total Hg concentrations in fur were strongly correlated with levels in the brain and liver. There was no difference in tissue concentrations between male and female mink; however, female otters had significantly higher fur, brain and liver Hg levels than males. Similarly, there was not a significant relationship between Hg concentration and age of mink, whereas in otters, Hg concentrations in all three tissues decreased significantly with age. In both species, only a very small percentage of the variability in Hg concentration was explained by age. After adjusting the data for site-to-site differences in Hg levels, Hg concentrations in the fur of mink infected by the parasite, Dioctophyma renale, were found to be significantly higher than Hg levels in uninfected mink.     

Enhancing community-based disaster preparedness with information technology

A critical component of community-based disaster preparedness (CBDP) is a local resource database of suppliers providing physical, information and human resources for use in disaster response. Maintenance of such a database can become a collaborative responsibility among community-based non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and public and private community organisations. In addition to mobilising resources, this process raises awareness within the community and aids in assessing local knowledge and resources. This paper presents the results of a pilot study on implementing a community-based resource database through collaboration with local American Red Cross chapters and public and private community organisations. The design of the resource database is described. The resource database is accessible via the internet and offline using laptops and handheld Personal Digital Assistants. The study concludes that CBDP is strengthened through a combination of appropriate information technology and collaborative relationships between NGOs and community-based organisations.