Synthesis of ecosystem vulnerability to climate change in the Netherlands shows the need to consider environmental fluctuations in adaptation measures

Climate change impacts on individual species are various and range from shifts in phenology and functional properties to changes in productivity and dispersal. The combination of impacts determines future biodiversity and species composition, but is difficult to evaluate with a single method. Instead, a comparison of mutually independent approaches provides information and confidence in patterns observed beyond what may be achieved in individual approaches. Here, we carried out such comparison to assess which ecosystem types in the Netherlands appear most vulnerable to climate change impacts, as arising from changes in hydrology, nutrient conditions and dispersal limitations. We thus combined meta-analyses of species range shifts with species distribution modelling and ecohydrological modelling with expert knowledge in two respective impact studies. Both impact studies showed that nutrient-poor ecosystems and ecosystem types with fluctuating water tables—like hay meadows, moist heathlands and moorlands—seem to be most at risk upon climate change. A subsequent meta-analysis of species–environmental stress relations indicated that particularly endangered species are adversely affected by the combination of drought and oxygen stress, caused by fluctuating moisture conditions. This implies that adaptation measures should not only aim to optimise mean environmental conditions but should also buffer environmental extremes. Major uncertainties in the assessment included the quantitative impacts of vegetation-hydrology feedbacks, vegetation adaptation and interactions between dispersal capacity and traits linked to environmental selection. Once such quantifications become feasible, adaptation measures may be tailor-made and optimised to conserve vulnerable ecosystem types.     

Ants use directionless odour cues to recall odour-associated locations

Ants are key model organisms in the study of navigation and memory formation. Many ants learn food locations very quickly and with high accuracy. But can individual ants learn multiple separate food locations, associate them with a cue, and then correctly recall the food location and navigate towards it when later presented with that cue? In this experiment, we sequentially trained Lasius niger foragers to two scented feeders at either end of a T-maze. The next day, an odour cue corresponding to one of the food sources was presented to the ants in the air, on the substrate and via trophallaxis with nest mates. Trained foragers accurately navigated to the correct side of the T-maze (89 % correct decisions), but only after the first 10 min of testing. This demonstrates the ability of ants to perform associative recall, forming clear associates between odour cues and food locations and using these associations to navigate to food sources. We also found that trained ants in the first 10 min of testing showed no preference for the correct side (57 % correct decisions), which may be related to the motivational state of the ants tested. Ants with different motivational states (whether they are ‘scouting’ or ‘recruited’) made use of route memories in a completely different manner. This highlights the importance of taking account of motivational states when performing behavioural experiments.     

Effectiveness of unit-based pricing of waste in the Netherlands: Applying a general equilibrium model

Differential and variable rates (DVR) in waste collection charging give a price incentive to households to reduce their waste and increase recycling. International empirical evidence confirms the effectiveness of DVR schemes, with limited unwanted side effects. In the Netherlands, currently some 20% of the population is charged at DVR. This is less than in several other countries. Taking into account differences between types of households and dwellings, this study analyses various scenarios for extended use of DVR in the Netherlands. The analysis shows that further penetration of DVR is a cost-effective instrument for waste reduction and more recycling. Moreover, DVR can itself be seen as a necessary condition for the successful implementation of other economic instruments, such as waste taxes. It is therefore recommended to stimulate municipalities to adopt DVR schemes in the Netherlands, accompanied by the provision of adequate facilities for waste separation by households. Before introducing DVR in ‘very strongly urbanized’ municipalities (i.e. the 12 largest cities in the Netherlands) a pilot experiment in one of them might be useful to test the behavioral response in this category.     

Urban aerosol evolution and particle formation during wintertime temperature inversions

Aerosol temporal and spatial distributions during wintertime temperature inversions in Gothenburg, Sweden, have been characterized by ground-based and airborne particle measurements combined with lidar measurements. Ground inversions frequently developed during evenings and nights with stable cold conditions, and the low wintertime insolation often resulted in near neutral boundary layer conditions during day-time. Under these conditions ground level aerosol concentrations peaked during morning rush hours and often remained relatively high throughout the day due to inefficient ventilation. The particle number concentrations decreased slowly with increasing altitude within the boundary layer, and measurements slightly above the boundary layer suggested limited entrainment of polluted air into the free troposphere. High concentrations of ultrafine particles were observed throughout the boundary layer up to altitudes of 1100 m, which suggested that nucleation took place within the residual layer during the night and early morning. Recently formed particles were also observed around midday when the layer near ground was ventilated by mixing into the boundary layer, which indicated that ultrafine particles were either transported down from the residual layer to ground level or formed when the polluted surface layer mixed with the cleaner air above.     

Assessment of the Netherlands’ Flood Risk Management Policy Under Global Change

Climate change and sea level rise urge low-lying countries to draft adaption policies. In this context, we assessed whether, to what extent and when the Netherlands’ current flood risk management policy may require a revision. By applying scenarios on climate change and socio-economic development and performing flood simulations, we established the past and future changes in flood probabilities, exposure and consequences until about 2050. We also questioned whether the present policy may be extended much longer, applying the concept of ‘policy tipping points’. Climate change was found to cause a significant increase of flood risk, but less than economic development does. We also established that the current flood risk management policy in the Netherlands can be continued for centuries when the sea level rise rate does not exceed 1.5 m per century. However, we also conclude that the present policy may not be the most attractive strategy, as it has some obvious flaws.     

Complex chemical communication in the crazy ant <Emphasis Type="Italic">Paratrechina longicornis</Emphasis> Latreille (Hymenoptera: Formicidae)

Summary. The formicine ant Paratrechina longicornis is known for its extremely opportunistic foraging behaviour. Only a single trail pheromone source, the rectum, was previously described from this ant. Our detailed examination of this ant’s chemical communication system revealed the presence of at least four sources of pheromones. Rectum, poison sac, and Dufour gland contain orientation components with decreasing effectiveness and persistence (in the sequence mentioned) as well as attractants with increasing effectiveness. Furthermore, the mandibular gland contains repellents, and a releaser of defensive behaviour. This set of various signals of different strength and persistence allows an extraordinary degree of flexibility and efficiency in the collective behaviour of P. longicornis, especially food exploitation, and thus may contribute to this insect’s overall ecological success.     

Architecture of 54 moist-forest tree species: traits, trade-offs, and functional groups

Tree architecture is an important determinant of the height extension, light capture, and mechanical stability of trees, and it allows species to exploit the vertical height gradient in the forest canopy and horizontal light gradients at the forest floor. Tropical tree species partition these gradients through variation in adult stature (Hmax) and light demand. In this study we compare 22 architectural traits for 54 Bolivian moist-forest tree species. We evaluate how architectural traits related to Hmax vary with tree size, and we present a conceptual scheme in which we combine the two axes into four different functional groups. Interspecific correlations between architecture and Hmax varied strongly from negative to positive, depending on the reference sizes used. Stem height was positively related to Hmax at larger reference diameters (14-80 cm). Species height vs. diameter curves often flattened toward their upper ends in association with reproductive maturity for species of all sizes. Thus, adult understory trees were typically shorter than similar-diameter juveniles of larger species. Crown area was negatively correlated with Hmax at small reference heights and positively correlated at larger reference heights (15-34 m). Wide crowns allow the small understory species to intercept light over a large area at the expense of a reduced height growth. Crown length was negatively correlated with Hmax at intermediate reference heights (4-14 m). A long crown enables small understory species to maximize light interception in a light-limited environment. Light-demanding species were characterized by orthotropic stems and branches, large leaves, and a monolayer leaf arrangement. They realized an efficient height growth through the formation of narrow and shallow crowns. Light demand turned out to be a much stronger predictor of tree architecture than Hmax, probably because of the relatively low, open, and semi-evergreen canopy at the research site. The existence of four functional groups (shade-tolerant, partial-shade-tolerant, and long- and short-lived pioneer) was confirmed by the principal component and discriminant analysis. Both light demand and Hmax capture the major variation in functional traits found among tropical rain forest tree species, and the two-way classification scheme provides a straightforward model to understand niche differentiation in tropical forests.     

The suitability of a single intertidal fish trap for the assessment of long-term trends in fish and epibenthic invertebrate populations

The suitability of a single intertidal fish trap for the assessment of long-term trends in fish and epibenthic invertebrate relies upon the assumption of an on-average constant sampling fraction from the study population. This assumption was examined by comparing trends over years in five different traps within the study area. For some species, like cod, the traps showed more or less parallel fluctuations. This is in agreement with the assumption. However, for other species, like mackerel, the assumption was invalidated by distinct trends over years.Publication no. 62 of the project Applied Scientific Research Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (BEWON)