The ozone productivity of n-propyl bromide: Part 2--An exception to the Maximum Incremental Reactivity Scale

In an earlier paper the ozone-forming potential of n-propyl bromide (NPB) was studied with a new methodology designed to address issues associated with a marginal smog-forming compound. However, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) subsequently revised its policy and now recommends using the Maximum Incremental Reactivity (MIR) scale to rank the ozone-forming potential of all volatile organic compounds (VOCs), including those of marginal ozone productivity. Nevertheless, EPA contemplated exceptions to the box-model-derived MIR scale by allowing use of photochemical grid-model simulations for case specific reactivity assessments. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) also uses the MIR scale and CARB has a Reactivity Scientific Advisory Committee that can consider exceptions to the MIR scale. In this study, grid-model simulations that were recommended by EPA are used to evaluate the incremental ozone impacts of NPB using an update to the chemical mechanism developed in an earlier paper. New methods of analysis of the grid-model output are further developed here to quantify the relative reactivities between NPB and ethane over a wide range of conditions. The new grid-model-based analyses show that NPB is significantly different and generally less in ozone-forming potential (i.e., reactivity) than predicted by the box-model-based MIR scale relative to ethane, EPA's "bright-line" test for non-VOC status. Although NPB has low reactivity compared to typical VOCs on any scale, the new grid-model analyses developed here show that NPB is far less reactive (and even has negative reactivity) compared to the reactivity predicted by the MIR scale.     

Waste Minimization in the Manufacture of Flexible Polyurethane Foams: Quantification of Auxiliary Blowing Agent Volatilization

Experimental investigations were conducted to quantify the volatilization dynamics of blowing agent loss and to examine innovative means to maintain safe worker conditions while simultaneously recovering the auxiliary blowing agent. Methylene chloride-blown polyurethane foams with representative formulations were prepared to determine overall weight loss, auxiliary blowing agent weight loss and foam temperature profiles versus time. Approximately 60 percent of the methylene chloride is lost within the first ten minutes of the process; the residual 40 percent is lost slowly by diffusion over 24 hours. Based on the collected data, a model was developed which predicts tunnel concentrations of methylene chloride as a function of formulation, tunnel length, conveyor speed and air flow. Retrofit of a foam line to isolate the tunnel and drastically reduce exhaust flows will eliminate worker exposure to isocyanates and significantly increase tunnel concentrations of the auxiliary blowing agent. This increase in ambient blowing agent concentration should allow for recovery by conventional means. A project to demonstrate this isolation/concentration/ recovery/recycle strategy is currently underway at a North Carolina foamer.     

Pragmatic estimation of a spatio-temporal air quality model with irregular monitoring data

Statistical analyses of health effects of air pollution have increasingly used GIS-based covariates for prediction of ambient air quality in “land use” regression models. More recently these spatial regression models have accounted for spatial correlation structure in combining monitoring data with land use covariates. We present a flexible spatio-temporal modeling framework and pragmatic, multi-step estimation procedure that accommodates essentially arbitrary patterns of missing data with respect to an ideally complete space by time matrix of observations on a network of monitoring sites. The methodology incorporates a model for smooth temporal trends with coefficients varying in space according to Partial Least Squares regressions on a large set of geographic covariates and nonstationary modeling of spatio-temporal residuals from these regressions. This work was developed to provide spatial point predictions of PM_2.5 concentrations for the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air) using irregular monitoring data derived from the AQS regulatory monitoring network and supplemental short-time scale monitoring campaigns conducted to better predict intra-urban variation in air quality. We demonstrate the interpretation and accuracy of this methodology in modeling data from 2000 through 2006 in six U.S. metropolitan areas and establish a basis for likelihood-based estimation.     

Waiting for Peace: Perspectives from Action-oriented Research on the Humanitarian Impasse in the Caucasus

Cease-fires in the Caucasus during the past five years have prevented large-scale life-threatening emergencies and created space for peace negotiations. Yet genuine conflict resolution and normalisation have proven elusive, frustrating the return of uprooted populations and constraining reconstruction. This paper reviews a series of seven strategy sessions held in Moscow and the Caucasus in late 1998 to reflect upon the performance of humanitarian agencies and stimulate greater synergies with diplomatic actors. An experiment in promoting discussion of recently conducted independent policy research throughout the north and south Caucasus, the series resulted in a fresh look at the issues in the region and at agency headquarters. The generic nature of the policy challenges gives the experience potential relevance well beyond the region.     

Constituency Bias in a Federal Resource Management Agency: a Confirmatory Analysis

In a 1989 article, Ben Twight and Fremont Lyden compared the attitudes of national forest managers in the United States in 1981 with those of its major constituents to assess the extent to which the U.S. Forest Service was biased: were the beliefs and values of agency employees concerning resource management more representative of one of two major constituent groups, environmentalists and forest utilizers? The research tested Culhane's (Public Lands Politics: Interest Group Influence on the Forest Service and the Bureau of Land Management. Baltimore, Maryland: John Hopkins University Press. 1981) theory that the Forest Service occupies a middle ground in its attitudes relative to those of its environmental and utilization constituencies. They concluded that the agency did not; ideologically, district rangers were quite close to the Forest Service's utilizer constituency and relatively far from its environmentalist constituency. Given recent changes in the attitudes of Forest Services managers, the present study sought to answer the question: what do these changes reveal about the ideological position of the agency in 1981 vis a vis its position in 1990, and what are their implications for continuing concerns over the agency's representation of all interest groups? The response to survey questions of four groups—1990 district rangers and district rangers, environmentalists and forest utilizers in 1981—were combined for statistical comparison. Discriminant analyses were conducted to clarify the differences in the groups. Although the hypothesized bias of the Forest Service toward the traditional utilizer position was confirmed, the results also suggested that managers' values and attitudes had changed over the decade. The major issue underlying this bias—preservation versus utilization of resources—no longer adequately represented the agency's position, which has been fragmented into concerns with multiple issues.     

Channel change,sediment transport,and fish habitat in a coastal stream: Effects of an extreme event

A study on sediment transport and channel change was conducted on Zayante Creek and the lower San Lorenzo River in Santa Cruz County, California. A rainstorm with a recurrence interval locally in excess of 150 years occurred during the study year, 1982 WY. Stream surveys indicated that significant aggradation occurred during and after the peak flood. Upper study reaches were substantially recovered after high flows of early April, but the lower study reaches still had significant filling of pools and burial of riffles by sand. Increases in width-depth ratio were minor and localized in upper reaches, but were significant in lower reaches. Large inputs of sand, primarily from landsliding, altered the sediment transport regime. A higher proportion of the bedload is now transported by lower flows than before the January event. Roads and sand quarries contributed significantly to sediment input to the stream. A proposed dam may alter the sediment transport regime of Zayante Creek. Mitigating the effects of this dam on downstream fish habitat may require occasional bankfull discharges.     

Lack of evidence for nepotism by workers tending queens of the polygynous termite <Emphasis Type="Italic">Nasutitermes corniger</Emphasis>

Kin selection theory predicts that workers in social insect colonies should preferentially aid close relatives over less related or unrelated individuals if such behaviors increase inclusive fitness. For example, a worker in a polygynous (multiple-queen) colony is predicted to tend its own mother rather than an unrelated queen if this nepotistic behavior increases its mother’s reproductive success in excess of costs. Despite predictions, experimental tests conducted in the social Hymenoptera have found no clear evidence of nepotism. No tests for nepotism have been carried out in the Isoptera (termites), another major insect taxon showing highly developed sociality. We tested for nepotistic behavior in the termite Nasutitermes corniger by determining if workers preferentially fed and groomed their mothers in a laboratory assay. We collected workers from nine naturally occurring multiple-queen colonies as they tended queens and determined their parentage using highly variable microsatellite markers. Our results provide no evidence that workers tend their mothers in preference to co-occurring queens. The absence of evidence for nepotism is consistent with previous results reported from numerous studies of eusocial hymenopterans.     

Conceptual development of a harmonised method for tracking change and evaluating policy in the agri-environment: The Agri-environmental Footprint Index

An aggregated farm-level index, the Agri-environmental Footprint Index (AFI), based on multiple criteria methods and representing a harmonised approach to evaluation of EU agri-environmental schemes is described. The Index uses a common framework for the design and evaluation of policy that can be customised to locally relevant agri-environmental issues and circumstances. Evaluation can be strictly policy-focused, or broader and more holistic in that context-relevant assessment criteria that are not necessarily considered in the evaluated policy can nevertheless be incorporated. The Index structure is flexible, and can respond to diverse local needs. The process of Index construction is interactive, engaging farmers and other relevant stakeholders in a transparent decision-making process that can ensure acceptance of the outcome, help to forge an improved understanding of local agri-environmental priorities and potentially increase awareness of the critical role of farmers in environmental management. The structure of the AFI facilitates post-evaluation analysis of relative performance in different dimensions of the agri-environment, permitting identification of current strengths and weaknesses, and enabling future improvement in policy design. Quantification of the environmental impact of agriculture beyond the stated aims of policy using an ‘unweighted’ form of the AFI has potential as the basis of an ongoing system of environmental audit within a specified agricultural context.     

OPTIMAL LONG-TERM SCHEDULING OF STORMWATER DRAINAGE REHABILITATION1

ABSTRACT: A mathematical model is developed to optimally schedule long-term stormwater infrastructure rehabilitation activities. The model is capable of considering multiple rehabilitation projects and is driven by overall cost eensiderations. Rehabilitation activities are scheduled based on perceived reliabilities and future deterioration expected within the specified planning horizon. Future growth within the stormwater drainage basin is incorporated using chance constraints that limit the likelihood that a stormwater discharge exceeds system conveyance capacity. Model structure and development are discussed, and a hypothetical example using a drainage network is presented.