Rethinking the assessment of photochemical modelin systems in air quality planning applications

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency provides guidelines for demonstrating that future 8-hr ozone (O3) design values will be at or below the National Ambient Air Quality Standards on the basis of the application of photochemical modeling systems to simulate the effect of emission reductions. These guidelines also require assessment of the model simulation against observations. In this study, we examined the link between the simulated relative responses to emission reductions and model performance as measured by operational evaluation metrics, a part of the model evaluation required by the guidance, which often is the cornerstone of model evaluation in many practical applications. To this end, summertime O3 concentrations were simulated with two modeling systems for both 2002 and 2009 emission conditions. One of these two modeling systems was applied with two different parameterizations for vertical mixing. Comparison of the simulated base-case 8-hr daily maximum O3 concentrations showed marked model-to-model differences of up to 20 ppb, resulting in significant differences in operational model performance measures. In contrast, only relatively minor differences were detected in the relative response of O3 concentrations to emission reductions, resulting in differences of a few ppb or less in estimated future year design values. These findings imply that operational model evaluation metrics provide little insight into the reliability of the actual model application in the regulatory setting (i.e., the estimation of relative changes). In agreement with the guidance, it is argued that more emphasis should be placed on the diagnostic evaluation of O3-precursor relationships and on the development and application of dynamic and retrospective evaluation approaches in which the response of the model to changes in meteorology and emissions is compared with observed changes. As an example, simulated relative O3 changes between 1995 and 2007 are compared against observed changes. It is suggested that such retrospective studies can serve as the starting point for targeted diagnostic studies in which individual aspects of the modeling system are evaluated and refined to improve the characterization of observed changes.     

Laboratory Characterization of Modified Tapered Element Oscillating Microbalance Samplers

Abstract

Laboratory tests with generated aerosols were conducted to test the efficacy of two recent design modifications to the well-established tapered element oscillating microbalance (TEOM) continuous particulate matter (PM) mass monitor. The two systems tested were the sample equilibration system-equipped TEOM monitor operating at 30 °C, which uses a Nafion dryer as part of the sample inlet, and the differential TEOM monitor, which adds a switched electrostatic precipitator and uses a self-referencing algorithm to determine “true PM mass.” Test aerosols included ammonium sulfate, ammonium nitrate, sodium chloride, copper (II) sulfate, and mixed aerosols. Aerosols were generated with an atomizer or a vibrating orifice generator and were equilibrated in a 450-L slow flow chamber before being sampled. Relative humidity in the chamber was varied between 10 and 90%, and step changes in humidity were executed while generating aerosol to test the response of the instruments. The sample equilibration system-equipped TEOM monitor does reduce, but not totally eliminate, the sensitivity of the TEOM mass monitor to changes in humidity. The differential TEOM monitor gives every indication of being a very robust technique for the continuous real-time measurement of ambient aerosol mass, even in the presence of semi-volatile particles and condensable gases.     

An Operational Assessment of the Application of the Relative Reduction Factors in the Demonstration of Attainment of the 8-Hr Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard

Abstract

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in 1997 revised the 1-hr ozone (O₃) National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) to one based on an 8-hr average, resulting in potential nonattainment status for substantial portions of the eastern United States. The regulatory process provides for the development of a state implementation plan that includes a demonstration that the projected future O₃ concentrations will be at or below the NAAQS based on photochemical modeling and analytical techniques.

In this study, four photochemical modeling systems, based on two photochemical models, Community Model for Air Quality and the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions, and two emissions processing models, Sparse Matrix Optimization Kernel for Emissions and Emissions Modeling System, were applied to the eastern United States, with emphasis on the northeastern Ozone Transport Region in terms of their response to oxides of nitrogen and volatile organic carbon-focused controls on the estimated design values. With the 8-hr O₃ NAAQS set as a bright-line test, it was found that a given area could be termed as being in or out of attainment of the NAAQS depending upon the modeling system. This suggests the need to provide an estimate of model-to-model uncertainty in the relative reduction factor (RRF) for a better understanding of the uncertainty in projecting the status of an area's attainment. Results indicate that the model-to-model differences considered in this study introduce an uncertainty of the future estimated design value of ～3–5 ppb.     

A diagnostic comparison of measured and model-predicted speciated VOC concentrations

This study compares speciated model-predicted concentrations (i.e., mixing ratios) of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) with measurements from the Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Stations (PAMS) network at sites within the northeastern US during June–August of 2006. Measurements of total non-methane organic compounds (NMOC), ozone (O₃), oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) and reactive nitrogen species (NO_y) are used for supporting analysis. The measured VOC species were grouped into the surrogate classes used by the Carbon Bond IV (CB4) chemical mechanism. It was found that the model typically over-predicted all the CB4 VOC species, except isoprene, which might be linked to overestimated emissions. Even with over-predictions in the CB4 VOC species, model performance for daily maximum O₃ was typically within ±15%. Analysis at an urban site in NY, where both NMOC and NO_x data were available, suggested that the reasonable ozone performance may be possibly due to compensating overestimated NO_x concentrations, thus modulating the NMOC/NO_x ratio to be in similar ranges as that of observations.     

Dynamic evaluation of a regional air quality model: Assessing the emissions-induced weekly ozone cycle

Air quality models are used to predict changes in pollutant concentrations resulting from envisioned emission control policies. Recognizing the need to assess the credibility of air quality models in a policy-relevant context, we perform a dynamic evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system for the “weekend ozone effect” to determine if observed changes in ozone due to weekday-to-weekend (WDWE) reductions in precursor emissions can be accurately simulated. The weekend ozone effect offers a unique opportunity for dynamic evaluation, as it is a widely documented phenomenon that has persisted since the 1970s. In many urban areas of the Unites States, higher ozone has been observed on weekends than weekdays, despite dramatically reduced emissions of ozone precursors (nitrogen oxides [NO_x] and volatile organic compounds [VOCs]) on weekends. More recent measurements, however, suggest shifts in the spatial extent or reductions in WDWE ozone differences. Using 18 years (1988–2005) of observed and modeled ozone and temperature data across the northeastern United States, we re-examine the long-term trends in the weekend effect and confounding factors that may be complicating the interpretation of this trend and explore whether CMAQ can replicate the temporal features of the observed weekend effect. The amplitudes of the weekly ozone cycle have decreased during the 18-year period in our study domain, but the year-to-year variability in weekend minus weekday (WEWD) ozone amplitudes is quite large. Inter-annual variability in meteorology appears to influence WEWD differences in ozone, as well as WEWD differences in VOC and NO_x emissions. Because of the large inter-annual variability, modeling strategies using a single episode lasting a few days or a few episodes in a given year may not capture the WEWD signal that exists over longer time periods. The CMAQ model showed skill in predicting the absolute values of ozone concentrations during the daytime. However, early morning NO_x concentrations were underestimated and ozone levels were overestimated. Also, the modeled response of ozone to WEWD differences in emissions was somewhat less than that observed. This study reveals that model performance may be improved by (1) properly estimating mobile source NO_x emissions and their temporal distributions, especially for diesel vehicles; (2) reducing the grid cell size in the lowest layer of CMAQ; and, (3) using time-dependent and more realistic boundary conditions for the CMAQ simulations.     

An Approach for the Aggregation of Aerodynamic Surface Parameters in Calculating the Turbulent Fluxes over Heterogeneous Surfaces in Atmospheric Models

Experimental evidence indicates that there is a significant departure of the wind profile above the underlying surface consisting of patches of solid and liquid parts, and plant communities with different morphological from that predicted by the logarithmic relationship, which gives the values larger than those observed. This situation can seriously affect the transfer of momentum, heat and water vapor from the surface fluxes into the atmosphere.The object of this paper is to generalize the calculation of the exchange of momentum between the atmosphere and a very heterogeneous surface, find a general equation for the wind speed profile in a roughness sublayer under neutral conditions, and, then, derive aggregated roughness length and displacement height over the grid cell. The suggested expression for the wind profile is compared with some earlier approaches, using a common parameterization of aerodynamic parameters over the grid cell, and the observations obtained at an experimental site in Philadelphia, PA.     

An assessment of the emissions inventory processing systems EMS-2001 and SMOKE in grid-based air quality models

In the United States, emission processing models such as Emissions Modeling System-2001 (EMS-2001), Emissions Preprocessor System-Version 2.5 (EPS2.5), and the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) model are currently being used to generate gridded, hourly, speciated emission inputs for urban and regional-scale photochemical models from aggregated pollutant inventories. In this study, two models, EMS-2001 and SMOKE, were applied with their default internal data sets to process a common inventory database for a high ozone (O3) episode over the eastern United States using the Carbon Bond IV (CB4) chemical speciation mechanism. A comparison of the emissions processed by these systems shows differences in all three of the major processing steps performed by the two models (i.e., in temporal allocation, spatial allocation, and chemical speciation). Results from a simulation with a photochemical model using these two sets of emissions indicate differences on the order of +/- 20 ppb in the predicted 1-hr daily maximum O3 concentrations. It is therefore critical to develop and implement more common and synchronized temporal, spatial, and speciation cross-reference systems such that the processes within each emissions model converge toward reasonably similar results. This would also help to increase confidence in the validity of photochemical grid model results by reducing one aspect of modeling uncertainty.     

Laboratory characterization of modified tapered element oscillating microbalance samplers

Laboratory tests with generated aerosols were conducted to test the efficacy of two recent design modifications to the well-established tapered element oscillating microbalance (TEOM) continuous particulate matter (PM) mass monitor. The two systems tested were the sample equilibration system-equipped TEOM monitor operating at 30 degrees C, which uses a Nafion dryer as part of the sample inlet, and the differential TEOM monitor, which adds a switched electrostatic precipitator and uses a self-referencing algorithm to determine "true PM mass." Test aerosols included ammonium sulfate, ammonium nitrate, sodium chloride, copper (II) sulfate, and mixed aerosols. Aerosols were generated with an atomizer or a vibrating orifice generator and were equilibrated in a 450-L slow flow chamber before being sampled. Relative humidity in the chamber was varied between 10 and 90%, and step changes in humidity were executed while generating aerosol to test the response of the instruments. The sample equilibration system-equipped TEOM monitor does reduce, but not totally eliminate, the sensitivity of the TEOM mass monitor to changes in humidity. The differential TEOM monitor gives every indication of being a very robust technique for the continuous real-time measurement of ambient aerosol mass, even in the presence of semi-volatile particles and condensable gases.     

Demonstrating attainment of the air quality standards: integration of observations and model predictions into the probabilistic framework

This paper introduces an integrated observational-modeling approach to transform the deterministic nature of attainment demonstrations of the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) into the probabilistic framework. While the methods presented here can be used to address any air quality standard that is based on extreme values, this paper focuses on the application to the 1-hr and 8-hr NAAQS for ozone. Extreme value statistics and resampling techniques are applied to estimate the probability of exceeding the NAAQS for both 1-hr and 8-hr ozone concentrations. Within the integrated observation-modeling analysis approach, we show that the model-to-model differences in the predicted responses to emission reductions are smaller than the model-to-model differences in predicted absolute ozone concentrations. We illustrate that the emission reductions stemming from a real-world emission control strategy would substantially reduce the probability of exceeding the NAAQS over a large portion of the eastern United States, especially for the 8-hr average ozone concentrations.     

An assessment of the sensitivity and reliability of the relative reduction factor approach in the development of 8-hr ozone attainment plans

The updated regulatory framework for demonstrating that future 8-hr ozone (O3) design values will be at or below the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) provides guidelines for the development of a State Implementation Plan (SIP) that includes methods based on photochemical modeling and analytical techniques. One of the suggested approaches is the relative reduction factor (RRF) for estimating the efficacy of emission reductions. In this study, the sensitivity of model-predicted responses towards emission reductions to the choice of meteorology and chemical mechanisms was examined. While the different modeling simulations generally were found to be in agreement on whether predicted future-year design values would be above or below the NAAQS for 8-hr O3 at a majority of the monitoring locations in the eastern United States, differences existed for a small percentage of monitors (approximately 6.4%). Another issue investigated was the ability of the attainment demonstration procedure to predict changes in monitored O3 design values. A retrospective analysis was performed by comparing predicted O3 design values from model simulations using emission estimates for 1996 and 2001 with monitored O3 design values for 2001. Results indicated that an average gross error of approximately 5 ppb was present between modeled and observed design values and that, at approximately 27% of all sites, model-predicted and observed design values disagreed as to whether the design value was above or below the NAAQS. Retrospective analyses such as the one presented in this study can provide valuable insights into the strengths and limitations of modeling and analysis techniques used to predict future design values over time periods of a decade or more for the purpose of developing SIPs. Furthermore, such analyses could provide avenues for improvement and added confidence in the use of the RRF approach for addressing attainment of the NAAQS.