STOCHASTIC WATER QUALITY ANALYSIS USING RELIABILITY METHOD1

ABSTRACT: This study developed a QUAL2E‐Reliability Analysis (QUAL2E‐RA) model for the stochastic water quality analysis of the downstream reach of the main Han River in Korea. The proposed model is based on the QUAL2E model and incorporates the Advanced First‐Order Second‐Moment (AFOSM) and Mean‐Value First‐Order Second‐Moment (MFOSM) methods. After the hydraulic characteristics from standard step method are identified, the optimal reaction coefficients are then estimated using the Broyden‐Fletcher‐Goldfarb‐Shanno (BFGS) method. Considering variations in river discharges, pollutant loads from tributaries, and reaction coefficients, the violation probabilities of existing water quality standards at several locations in the river were computed from the AFOSM and MFOSM methods, and the results were compared with those from the Monte Carlo method. The statistics of the three uncertainty analysis methods show that the outputs from the AFOSM and MFOSM methods are similar to those from the Monte Carlo method. From a practical model selection perspective, the MFOSM method is more attractive in terms of its computational simplicity and execution time.     

COMPARATIVE STUDY OF OPTIMIZATION TECHNIQUES FOR IRRIGATION PROJECT PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: This study presents three optimization techniques for on‐farm irrigation scheduling in irrigation project planning: namely the genetic algorithm, simulated annealing and iterative improvement methods. The three techniques are applied to planning a 394.6 ha irrigation project in the town of Delta, Utah, for optimizing economic profits, simulating water demand, and estimating the crop area percentages with specific water supply and planted area constraints. The comparative optimization results for the 394.6 ha irrigated project from the genetic algorithm, simulated annealing, and iterative improvement methods are as follows: (1) the seasonal maximum net benefits are $113,826, $111,494, and $105,444 per season, respectively; and (2) the seasonal water demands are 3.03*10³ m³, 3.0*10³ m³, and 2.92*10³ m³ per season, respectively. This study also determined the most suitable four parameters of the genetic algorithm method for the Delta irrigated project to be: (1) the number of generations equals 800, (2) population size equals 50, (3) probability of crossover equals 0.6, and (4) probability of mutation equals 0.02. Meanwhile, the most suitable three parameters of simulated annealing method for the Delta irrigated project are: (1) initial temperature equals 1,000, (2) number of moves equal 90, and (3) cooling rate equals 0.95.     

对我国水资源可持续利用的一点思考

按照“认识——规划——建设”的思路,分析了我国水资源开发利用中所面临的主要问题和挑战,提出水资源可持续开发利用的策略和对策,特别提出分质供水和中水回用相结合的供水方式,作出了各地区重点建设项目的构想。     

Lead phytoextraction from contaminated soil with high-biomass plant species

In this study, cabbage [Brassica rapa L. subsp. chinensis (L.) Hanelt cv. Xinza No 1], mung bean [Vigna radiata (L.) R. Wilczek var. radiata cv. VC-3762], and wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv. Altas 66) were grown in Pb-contaminated soils. Application of ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid (EDTA) (3.0 mmol of EDTA/kg soil) to the soil significantly increased the concentrations of Pb in the shoots and roots of all the plants. Lead concentrations in the cabbage shoots reached 5010 and 4620 mg/kg dry matter on Days 7 and 14 after EDTA application, respectively. EDTA was the best in solubilizing soil-bound Pb and enhancing Pb accumulation in the cabbage shoots among various chelates (EDTA, diethylenetriaminepentaacetic acid [DTPA], hydroxyethylenediaminetriacetic acid [HEDTA], nitrilotriacetic acid [NTA], and citric acid). Results of the sequential chemical extraction of soil samples showed that the Pb concentrations in the carbonate-specifically adsorbed and Fe-Mn oxide phases were significantly decreased after EDTA treatment. The results indicated that EDTA solubilized Pb mainly from these two phases in the soil. The relative efficiency of EDTA enhancing Pb accumulation in shoots (defined as the ratio of shoot Pb concentration to EDTA concentration applied) was highest when 1.5 or 3.0 mmol EDTA/kg soil was used. Application of EDTA in three separate doses was most effective in enhancing the accumulation of Pb in cabbage shoots and decreased mobility of Pb in soil compared with one- and two-dose application methods. This approach could help to minimize the amount of chelate applied in the field and to reduce the potential risk of soluble Pb movement into ground water.     

AN ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF GROUND WATER RECHARGE IN THE TUCSON BASIN1

ABSTRACT: Bringing water from Colorado River via the Central Arizona Project was perceived as the sole solution for Tucson Basin's water problem. Soon after Central Arizona Project's water arrived in Tucson in 1992, its quality provoked a quarrel over its use for potable purposes. A significant outcome of that quarrel was the enactment of the 1995 Proposition 200. The Proposition 200 precludes the use of Central Arizona Project's water for potable purposes, unless it is treated. Yet, it encourages using it for non‐potable purposes and for replenishing the Tucson aquifer through recharge. This paper examines the economic issues involved in utilizing Central Arizona Project's water for recharge. Four planning scenarios were designed to measure and compare the costs and benefits with and without Central Arizona Project's water recharge. Cost‐benefit analysis was utilized to measure recharge costs and benefits and to derive a rough estimate of cost savings from preventing land subsidence. The results indicate that the institutional requirements can be met with Central Arizona Project's water recharge. The economic benefits from reducing pumping cost and saving groundwater are not economically significant. Yet, when combining the use of Central Arizona Project's water for recharge and non‐potable purposes, it demonstrates positive net economic benefits.     

FLOOD STAGE FORECASTING WITH SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINES1

ABSTRACT: Machine learning techniques are finding more and more applications in the field of forecasting. A novel regression technique, called Support Vector Machine (SVM), based on the statistical learning theory is explored in this study. SVM is based on the principle of Structural Risk Minimization as opposed to the principle of Empirical Risk Minimization espoused by conventional regression techniques. The flood data at Dhaka, Bangladesh, are used in this study to demonstrate the forecasting capabilities of SVM. The result is compared with that of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based model for one‐lead day to seven‐lead day forecasting. The improvements in maximum predicted water level errors by SVM over ANN for four‐lead day to seven‐lead day are 9.6 cm, 22.6 cm, 4.9 cm and 15.7 cm, respectively. The result shows that the prediction accuracy of SVM is at least as good as and in some cases (particularly at higher lead days) actually better than that of ANN, yet it offers advantages over many of the limitations of ANN, for example in arriving at ANN's optimal network architecture and choosing useful training set. Thus, SVM appears to be a very promising prediction tool.     

A COST‐BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF WATER QUALITY PROTECTION IN THE CATAWBA BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The primary objective of this study was to perform a cost‐benefit analysis of maintaining the current level of water quality in the Catawba River basin. Economic benefits were estimated using a stated preference survey method designed to value respondents' willingness to pay for a management plan to protect water quality in the Catawba basin over time. From the surveys conducted with 1,085 area residents, we calculated an annual mean willingness to pay of $139 for the management plan, or more than $75.4 million for all taxpayers in the area. Over the five‐year time horizon in which respondents were asked to pay for the management plan, this resulted in a total economic benefit of $340.1 million. The Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework model was used to estimate the amount of management activities needed to protect the current level of water quality in the basin over time. Based on the model results, the total cost of the management plan was calculated to be $244.8 million over a ten‐year period. The resulting cost‐benefit analysis indicated that the potential benefits of this management plan would outweigh the costs by more than $95 million.     

我国农业面源污染的控制与管理研究

主要通过我国污染源普查和2013年环境公报介绍了我国农业面源污染的现状,并从土壤侵蚀、农业化肥及农药、畜禽粪尿污染、农村生活污水和固体废弃物垃圾、大气干湿沉降、航运污染等方面介绍了我国污染源农业面源污染的成因,结合对土地利用方式、农业活动和田间管理、畜禽粪便及垃圾污染、社会经济因素等农业面源污染的影响因素的分析,分别从技术措施、法律措施和经济措施3方面入手提出了我国面源污染的控制和管理措施。