非线性时间序列门限自回归模型在环境空气质量预报中的应用

门限自回归模型作为1种利用历史资料对非线性时间序列进行描述从而进行预测的数学模型，多年来在各种统计领域中均取得良好的效果。根据非线性时间序列的门限自回归模型（简称TAR）的基本思路，利用环境空气自动监测系统历史监测数据资料，建立了浦东新区环境空气质量的预报计算模型。通过统计检验，检查使用TAR模型预测浦东新区环境空气质量与实际监测情况的符合程度。讨论了该模型在监测工作中的应用可行性。     

水解作为污水生物脱氮预处理工艺的可行性研究

通过现场中试对水解过程有机物的降解和SS去除情况进行分析，并通过批量实验对比了水解前后污水的反硝化速率。结果表明：采用厌氧水解取代初沉池作为生物脱氮的预处理工艺，可以有效提高后续生物处理工艺的效率，并可补充一定量的反硝化碳源。     

基于ARCGIS的安徽省地震应急快速反应系统

地震给人类带来了严重的灾害,建立地震应急快速反应系统能够使人们快速响应地震,快速组织有效的救援行动.本文介绍了利用GIS技术计算地震的影响范围,对地震造成的灾害进行评估,同时给出相应的救援建议.     

GIS支持下的水文生态效应评价混合型专家系统设计初探

文章从人工神经网络(ANN)、专家系统(ES)各自的优势和不足出发，结合地理信息系统(GIS)技术的特点，介绍了水文生态效应评价的混合型专家系统(HEMES)的基本结构模式和各模块的功能。然后抓住ANN、ES、GIS的共同作用因子一专家知识，从数据库结构、C 类方面探讨了三者集成的问题，并根据集成的思想探讨了相关功能设计。指出HEMES是一种更准确、易操作的评价技术，可作为相关管理、决策者的辅助工具。     

液氯泄漏事故模拟分析

针对1996年1月21日在西班牙发生的一起液氯泄漏事故的后果进行了模拟分析。模拟分析结果同事故实际所造成的后果是一致的。表明采用基于数学模型的事故后果模拟分析具有一定程度的可靠性。对于救灾和对重大危险源编制应急事故预案有一定程度的指导意义。     

采掘诱发地震的成因及对策

根据煤或岩体的赋存特征及采动后的受力特点，将采矿及掘进等工程进行过程中诱发的地震灾害分为三类，即完整煤岩体受压应力作用的失稳、顶底板受拉应力型地震及断层走滑受剪型诱发地震。文章在分别分析其成因的基础上，研究了采矿诱发三种类型地震的发生条件，提出了防治发生诱发地震的对策。     

煤层气勘探开发和利用的环境影响分析

煤层气是煤层中自生自储的一种非常规天然气，其成分主要是甲烷。与煤和石油比较，煤层气是一种清洁能源，因此加快煤层气的开发和利用，能改善能源结构，缓和能源紧张状况，减少环境污染。根据煤层气的特点，详细分析了其对于大气环境、水环境以及土壤、植物的影响因素后指出：开发利用煤层气对大气环境的影响利大于弊，而对水体、土壤、农作物等则产生一系列不利影响。     

Geochemical characteristics of dissolved rare earth elements in acid mine drainage from abandoned high-As coal mining area,southwestern China

Acid mine drainage (AMD) represents a major source of water pollution in the small watershed of Xingren coalfield in southwestern Guizhou Province. A detailed geochemical study was performed to investigate the origin, distribution, and migration of REEs by determining the concentrations of REEs and major solutes in AMD samples, concentrations of REEs in coal, bedrocks, and sediment samples, and modeling REEs aqueous species. The results highlighted that all water samples collected in the mining area are identified as low pH, high concentrations of Fe, Al, SO₄ ^2? and distinctive As and REEs. The spatial distributions of REEs showed a peak in where it is nearby the location of discharging of AMD, and then decrease significantly with distance away from the mining areas. Lots of labile REEs have an origin of coal and bedrocks, whereas the acid produced by the oxidation of pyrite is a prerequisite to cause the dissolution of coal and bedrocks, and then promoting REEs release in AMD. The North American Shale Composite (NASC)-normalized REE patterns of coal and bedrocks are enriched in light REEs (LREEs) and middle REEs (MREEs) relative to heavy REEs (HREEs). Contrary to these solid samples, AMD samples showed slightly enrichment of MREEs compared with LREEs and HREEs. This behavior implied that REEs probably fractionate during acid leaching, dissolution of bedrocks, and subsequent transport, so that the MREEs is primarily enriched in AMD samples. Calculation of REEs inorganic species for AMD demonstrated that sulfate complexes (Ln(SO₄)⁺and Ln(SO₄)₂ ^?) predominate in these species, accounting for most of proportions for the total REEs species. The high concentrations of dissolved SO₄ ^2? and low pH play a decisive role in controlling the presence of REEs in AMD, as these conditions are necessary for formation of stable REEs-sulfate complexes in current study. The migration and transportation of REEs in AMD are more likely constrained by adsorption and co-precipitation of Fe-Al hydroxides/hydroxysulfate. In addition, the MREEs is preferentially captured by poorly crystalline Fe-Al hydroxides/hydroxysulfate, which favors that sediments also preserve NASC-normalized patterns with MREEs enrichment in the stream.

     

Use of historical and contemporary distribution of mammals in China to inform conservation

A systematic understanding of dynamic animal extinction trajectories for different regions in a nation like China is critically important to developing practical conservation strategies. We explored historical and contemporary changes in terrestrial mammalian diversity to determine how diversity in each of the 5 regions in China has changed over time and to examine the conservation potential of these regions. We used records from databases on Pleistocene mammalian fossils and historical distribution records (1175–2020) for Primates (as a case study) to reconstruct evolutionary and historical distribution trajectories of the 11 orders of terrestrial mammals and to predict their prospective survival based on the national conservation strategy applied. The results indicated that since the Pleistocene, 4–5 mammalian orders have been lost in the northeast, 3 in central China, 2 along the coast, and 1 in the northwest. In the southwest, all 11 orders were maintained. Contemporarily, the coast and southwest had the highest and second-highest species densities. The southwest region and southeastern sections of the northwest region were the most historically and contemporarily diverse areas, which suggests that they should be the first priority for protected area (PA) designation. The central and coastal areas should be secondarily prioritized. In these 2 regions, conservation should focus on human coexistence with nature. Less attention should be paid to the PA in the northeast and western northwest because in these areas ecosystems are depauperate and the climate is harsh. Conservation in these areas should focus principally on avoiding further human encroachment on natural areas. Article impact statement: Historical and contemporary patterns of extinction can be a basis for mammalian conservation strategies.     

Effect of Environmental Regulation on High-quality Economic Development in China—An Empirical Analysis Based on Dynamic Spatial Durbin Model

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - In 2017, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China put forward the concept of high-quality economic development, indicating that the...