Meeting emission targets under uncertainty—the case of Finnish non-emission-trading sector

The European Union (EU) has set a target to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at least 10 % below the 2005 levels by 2020 in the non-Emission Trading Sector (non-ETS). As part of this, each Member State has a binding national emission limitation target for the non-ETS sector. Finland’s target, examined as a case study in this paper, is to reduce emissions at least 16 % below 2005 levels by 2020. The objective of this study is to find cost optimal mitigation portfolios that meet Finland’s reduction target and to analyze the risks of not attaining the emission target or exceeding the assumed costs. The question was addressed with a stochastic optimization model, Stochastic Optimization of non-ETS Emissions (SONETS) selecting separate mitigation measures that meet the target on expectation. The results show that optimal portfolios include relatively high uncertainty both in costs and achieved reductions. The prices of crude oil and diesel, and the abatement cost of reducing hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions seem to account for the majority of uncertainty regarding total costs. The baseline predictions for various non-ETS subsectors (such as transport and agriculture) were found to have the greatest contribution to the uncertainty of attaining emission target. The results also show that some abatement actions are chosen in nearly all efficient portfolios, while other actions are seldom chosen. For example replacing oil burners in the end of technical life time or recovery of methane (CH₄) from waste are often chosen whereas ban of landfilling of organic waste is chosen extremely seldom. It also seems that the results are somewhat sensitive to the inclusion or exclusion of the interdependencies of mitigation measures.     

Prenatal diagnosis and outcomes of five cases of mosaicism for an isochromosome of 20q

Five cases of mosaicism for an isochromosome of 20q have been detected from a total of 50 000 cases analysed for prenatal diagnosis by amniocentesis. Karyotypes were designated mos 46,X_/46,X_,i(20q). In all cases, the abnormal cell line was detected in more than one primary culture, thus fulfilling the criterion for true (level III) mosaicism. Indications for prenatal diagnosis were parental anxiety (two cases), low maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) (two cases), and high maternal serum AFP (one case). Level II ultrasounds on all five fetuses were normal, and the abnormal cell line was never detected in fetal blood and/or cord blood. All five pregnancies were continued and had normal outcomes, with birth weights ranging from 2.4 to 3.8 kg. The development of all five children has been normal, with the oldest child in the study now 4 years of age. We suggest that the abnormal cell line in each case was of extrafetal origin, and that this may be one of the more common examples of this phenomenon, occurring in approximately 1/10000 prenatal diagnoses. Mosaicism i(20q) may have been missed in the past because of the higher resolution necessary to detect this subtle change.     

Uncommon chromosomal mosaicism in chorionic villi

Three cases of unusual chromosomal mosaicism are reported for which the cytogenetic data show inconsistent findings between CVS and AC or fetal tissue, and which cannot be explained simply by non-disjunction. For case 1, in CVS the karyotype was 46,XY, whereas lymphocytes and fibroblasts revealed 69,XXY. DNA fingerprinting indicated one paternal and two maternal chromosome sets, the latter most probably due to omission of maternal meiosis II. For case 2, in CVS mos 46,XX/47,XX,+mar de novo was observed. Amniotic fluid cells had the karyotype 46,XX. The origin of the marker chromosome might be explained by at least two events of unknown order (a somatic chromosome/chromatid deletion and non-disjunction of the homologous chromosome). In case 3 (CVS: mos 46,XY/46,XY,19q+ de novo; amniotic fluid cells, lymphocytes, and fibroblasts: 46,XY), the surplus of chromosome material in 19q+ might be explained on the basis of a somatic translocation. The idea of a chimera is less convincing, as the mosaic finding is restricted to one tissue. Furthermore, there was no hint of a vanishing twin. Hitherto, no case of structural chromosome mosaicism in CVS has been reconfirmed in fetal tissues.     

Costs and benefits of subordinate queens in colonies of the ant,<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Leptothorax gredleri</Emphasis>

Queens of some species of social insects form dominance hierarchies in which only the top-ranking individual reproduces. Such unequal partitioning of reproduction can be stable when subordinate queens increase their inclusive fitness indirectly by helping to rear a related dominant queen's offspring. We investigated whether subordinate queens of the ant, Leptothorax gredleri, affect the reproductive success of the dominant queen. In laboratory colonies with two queens, first eggs were laid approximately 20 days later than in colonies with a single queen, presumably due to aggressive competition among nestmate queens. Nevertheless, two-queen colonies produced on average more brood than one-queen colonies, although egg laying was completely or almost completely monopolized by one single queen. The presence of a subordinate queen therefore appears to increase the productivity of the dominant.     

The effect of metapleural gland secretion on the growth of a mutualistic bacterium on the cuticle of leaf-cutting ants

In Acromyrmex octospinosus leaf-cutting ants the metapleural glands produce an array of antibiotic compounds that serve as a general defence against unwanted microbes on the cuticle. Leaf-cutting ants also grow mutualistic Pseudonocardiaceae bacteria on their cuticle that produce antibiotics controlling a microfungal parasite of their fungus gardens. Interaction between this bacterium and gland secretion therefore seems unavoidable. We document the typical development of bacterial growth on the cuticle of young major workers, show that growth starts a few days after eclosion, and that the maximal cover is reached after 2–3 weeks and gradually declines when workers mature. Experimental closure of the metapleural glands had no effect on the initial exponential growth phase of the bacterium, but significantly reduced the cover during the decline phase. The age-dependent abundance of the bacterium and its partial dependence on metapleural gland secretion support the hypothesis that the abundance of this mutualist is actively regulated.     

Synthesis and structure-activity relationship of diene modified analogs of<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Matsucoccus</Emphasis> sex pheromones

The biological activity of the Matsucoccus spp. sex pheromones and diene modified analogs has been tested in forests of Israel and Portugal in order to explore the structure-activity relationship of the pine bast scale pheromone/kairomone system. The response of the adult predatory bugs, Elatophilus hebraicus and E. crassicornis and of the brown lacewing, Hemerobius stigma is more selective than that of the conspecific Matsucoccus males. The removal of the terminal methyl group from the diene terminus of both pheromones 1 and 2 eliminates all kairomonal activity but retains moderate pheromonal activity. Addition of a methyl group to the diene terminus of pheromones 1 and 2 sustains full pheromonal and kairomonal activities of the Elatophilus spp. but eliminates entirely the kairomonal activity of H. stigma. Subtle designed alterations in the structure of the diene group, typical of all Matsucoccus pheromones, change the mode of the kairomonal activity markedly.     

Congenital limb deficiencies in newborn infants: prevalence,characteristics and prenatal diagnosis

Congenital limb deficiency (CLD) occurs in 0.54 to 0.59/1000 live-born infants and varies according to its anatomic location, type and cause. Our aim was to present a fetus with a prenatal ultrasonographic diagnosis of CLD (transverse reduction deficiency of the left upper limb), and to determine the prevalence and clinical characteristics of CLD at a tertiary medical centre in Israel. Among 78 500 live-born infants, there were 24 cases of CLD (0.31/1000): 45.8% of the CLD cases with affected upper limbs, 45.8% with affected lower limbs, and 8.4% with both limbs affected; 88.4% of the limb deficiencies were longitudinal and 11.6% were transverse; and, 33.3% (8/24) of the affected newborn infants had additional congenital anomalies. We conclude that CLD is not an infrequent finding in live-born infants. Comprehensive ultrasonography of the fetus allows early prenatal diagnosis of CLD and provides the parents with important information and helps them in their decision regarding the fate of the pregnancy. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.