Coping with uncertainty: a call for a new science-policy forum

The scientific and policy worlds have different goals, which can lead to different standards for what constitutes "proof" of a change or phenomena, and different approaches for characterizing and conveying uncertainty and risk. These differences can compromise effective communication among scientists, policymakers, and the public, and constrain the types of socially compelling questions scientists are willing to address. In this paper, we review a set of approaches for dealing with uncertainty, and illustrate some of the errors that arise when science and policy fail to coordinate correctly. We offer a set of recommendations, including restructuring of science curricula and establishment of science-policy forums populated by leaders in both arenas, and specifically constituted to address problems of uncertainty.     

The effects of light and thallus scour from<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Ecklonia radiata</Emphasis> canopy on an associated foliose algal assemblage: the importance of photoacclimation

Kelp canopies have long been recognised for their influence on the structure of algal assemblages on sublittoral reefs. In Marmion Lagoon, Western Australia, we investigated how a canopy of the small kelp Ecklonia radiata affected the associated foliose algal assemblage and what potential mechanisms were responsible for the effects we observed. Light levels and physical abrasion (thallus scour) by an E. radiata canopy were manipulated in an orthogonal fixed-factor experiment that revealed that changes in light, but not thallus scour, had a significant effect on the composition of the algal assemblage. Reduced light levels were associated with a decrease in the Shannon-Wiener diversity index and an increased dominance of the foliose algae Pterocladia lucida and Rhodymenia sonderi. Photobiological investigations of three foliose species, P. lucida, R. sonderi and Chauviniella coriifolia indicated that they were able to photoacclimate to low light levels by increasing thallus absorption by up to 11%. Photoacclimation was also evident by an increase in the maximum rate of electron transport under low-light conditions. We conclude that the E. radiata canopy in Marmion Lagoon structures the foliose algal assemblage through the modification of the light environment and that this effect may be mediated by differences in the ability of different species of foliose algae to photoacclimate.Communicated by M.S. Johnson, Crawley     

Sperm competition in horseshoe crabs (Limulus polyphemus)

Male horseshoe crabs have two mating tactics. Some males come ashore attached to a female (clasping the posterior margin of the females' carapace with their modified pedipalps) and nest with her on the intertidal portion of the beach during the high tide. Other males come ashore unattached and crowd around nesting couples. Fertilization is external and unattached males that are in contact with a pair, i.e. satellite males, release sperm, so the assumption has been that they are fertilizing eggs. We conducted a paternity analysis to determine the proportion of eggs fertilized by attached and satellite males. Pairs with one satellite were observed during nesting on beaches in Florida and Delaware and their eggs were collected and reared to the late trilobite or first instar horseshoe crab stage. DNA was extracted from these offspring and from each adult (female, attached and satellite male) for use in paternity analysis. A Limulus-specific hypervariable microsatellite locus was identified and primers were constructed to amplify this locus via the polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Genotypes of putative parents and offspring were determined by resolving length variants of these PCR products on acrylamide gels. This allowed us to determine parentage of the offspring. We demonstrate that satellite males fertilized 40% of the eggs on average, attached males fertilized 51% and 4% of the eggs that were laid by the female were fathered neither by the attached male nor by the satellite (and 5% could not be determined unambiguously). There is high variability in the success of satellite males, ranging from 0 to 88%. Part of this variability can be explained by the position of the satellite relative to the attached male. We discuss the mechanics of fertilization and the possible advantages for multiple mating in this species.     

Prenatal detection of monosomy 21 mosaicism

We report a case of chromosomal mosaicism for monosomy 21 revealed in amniotic fluid cell culture. Ultrasound examination at 19 weeks' gestation showed in utero growth retardation and a complex cardiac malformation. A repeated amniocentesis confirmed the presence of monosomy 21 mosaicism. In view of the sonographically detected fetal abnormalities, termination of pregnancy was elected.     

The role of environmental and fisheries multi-controls in white seabream (Diplodus sargus) artisanal fisheries in Portuguese coast

Evaluating the effects of fishing and environmental factors on fish populations are fundamental tenets of fisheries science. In this study, we assess associations between environmental variables (sea surface temperature; North Atlantic Oscillation index; upwelling; wind magnitude; westerly winds; northerly winds; river discharge) and fishing variables (fishing effort) in Diplodus sagus catch rates accounting for regional analyses (northwest coast; southwest coast and Algarve—Algarve south coast). Different time series models for data fitting (multi-model approach) were used. The models were lagged, according to species fishing recruitment age based on the hypothesis that fisheries catches depend on larvae recruitment and survivorship. D. sargus catch rates across areas were unrelated to fishing effort but correlated to environmental variables, with seasonal events explaining much of the variability in trends. On the northwestern coast, the catch rates were mainly set by sea surface temperature (SST) and wind magnitude; however, southwestern coast catch rates were set by NAO winter. On the south coast, only one statistical model (SST, upwelling and westerly winds) associated spring conditions with D. sargus catch rates. The multi-model approach revealed autumn, winter and spring seasonal effects to be related with northwest, southwest and Algarve coastal catch rates, respectively, indicating a possible coastal longitudinal gradient related with given periods of spawning and larval availability. The metadata analysis yielded different results from the regional analyses. In summary, marine resource management should take regional environment characteristics and variability into account when determining sustainable catch rates in given areas for species with high habitat site fidelity.     

Development of a distance-to-roadway proximity metric to compare near-road pollutant levels to a central site monitor

The primary objective of the Detroit Exposure and Aerosol Research Study (DEARS) was to compare air pollutant concentrations measured at various neighborhoods, or exposure monitoring areas (EMAs), throughout a major metropolitan area to levels measured at a central site or community monitor. One of the EMAs was located near a busy freeway (annual average daily traffic (AADT) of ～130,000) so that impacts of mobile sources could be examined. Air pollution concentrations from the roadway-proximate sites were compared to the central site monitor. The volatile organic compounds (VOCs) selected (benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, m,p- and o-xylene, 1,3 butadiene, 1,3,5-trimethylbenzene and 4-ethyltoluene) are typically associated with mobile sources. Gradients were also evident that demonstrated the amplification of pollutant levels near the roadway compared to the community monitor. A novel distance-to-roadway proximity metric was developed to plot the measurements and model these gradients. Effective distance represents the actual distance an air parcel travels from the middle of a roadway to a site and varies as a function of wind direction, whereas perpendicular distance is a fixed distance oriented normal to the roadway. Perpendicular distance is often used as a proxy for exposures to traffic emissions in epidemiological studies.Elevated concentrations of all the compounds were found for both a summer and winter season. Effective distance was found to be a statistically significant (p < 0.05) univariate predictor for concentrations of toluene, ethylbenzene, m,p-xylene and o-xylene for summer 2005. For each of these pollutants, effective distance yielded lower p-values than the corresponding perpendicular distance models, and model fit improved. Results demonstrate that this near-road EMA had elevated levels of traffic-related VOCs compared to the community monitor, and that effective distance was a more accurate predictor of the degree to which they were elevated as a function of distance. Effective distance produced a range of distance-to-roadway values for a single site based on wind direction, thus increasing the number and range of values that could be used to plot and predict relative differences in pollutant concentrations between two sites.     

Multiresidue analysis of organophosphate and pyrethroid pesticides in duplicate-diet solid food by pressurized liquid extraction

An analytical method was developed for determining organophosphate pesticides (OPP) and pyrethroid pesticides (PYR) in duplicate-diet solid food. The method consisted of pressurized liquid extraction (PLE) with dichloromethane followed by cleanup with gel permeation and solid phase extraction columns and gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS) analysis. Quantitative recoveries (73-117 %) of the target pesticides were obtained for spiked duplicate-diet food samples. The percent standard deviation (% RSD) of replicate food samples was within ± 20 %. Another method was developed for determining a common OPP metabolite, 3, 5, 6-trichloro-2-pyridinol (TCP) in duplicate-diet food. The method consisted of a PLE with methanol followed by liquid-liquid partitioning, derivatization, and GC/MS analysis. Recoveries of TCP ranged from 83 to 101 % for spiked duplicate-diet food samples. The % RSD of replicate food samples was within ± 15 %. The results confirmed that these methods are reliable and robust, and that they can be used in routine analysis. In addition, a storage stability study for a common OPP, chlorpyrifos (CPF), in solid food samples was performed. The fortified (15)N-(13)C-labeled CPF was stable over 16 mo storage at -20° C in the dark. The developed analytical methods were successfully applied to 278 duplicate-diet food samples from preschool children, demonstrating that these methods are robust and suitable for routine analysis in future exposure monitoring studies.     

“Killing them with kindness”? A study of service employees' responses to uncivil customers

Experiencing uncivil customers is a frequent reality for many people working in the service industry. Past research has established that dealing with uncivil customers can be distressing for employees and can sometimes lead them to engage in reciprocal, discourteous behavior. The purpose of our research is to delve deeper into the experience of customer incivility from the perspective of service employees in order to better understand the various ways in which they respond to customer incivility. We conducted 64 interviews with service employees across an array of occupations and developed a typology of responses to customer incivility. These responses fell into four categories based on the extent to which service employees' actions were intended to promote social harmony (and therefore could broadly be considered civil or uncivil), as well as their perceived agency in the situation. We describe how each response was associated with different interpersonal and intrapersonal consequences and explain the implications of our typology for management theory and practice.     

Transfer of natural and anthropogenic radionuclides to ants, bryophytes and lichen in a semi-natural ecosystem

Few data are available to quantify the transfer of both natural and anthropogenic radionuclides to detritivorous invertebrates to facilitate estimation of the internal dose to such biota in models used to assess radiation exposure. To enhance the available data, activity concentrations of ¹³⁷Cs, ⁴⁰K, ⁹⁰Sr, ^239?+?240Pu, ²⁴¹Am, ²³⁵U and ²³⁸U were measured in ants (Formicidae) and corresponding undisturbed soil collected from the Zlatibor mountain in Serbia and ant/soil concentration ratios (CR) calculated. The ²⁴¹Am concentration ratios for ants were fourfold higher than those calculated for ants in a previous study whereas they are similar to the more numerous data previously reported for a range of detritivorous invertebrates in other studies. CR values for ¹³⁷Cs in ants were similar to the few other reported values and slightly lower than those for a range of detritivorous invertebrates. Those for ^239?+?240Pu were slightly higher than those for ants in two other studies but they were close to upper limit of a range of data reported for detritivorous invertebrates. All the CR values will be included in a future revision of the ERICA Tool database and will particularly improve the information available for uranium.     

Estimating rainforest biomass stocks and carbon loss from deforestation and degradation in Papua New Guinea 1972–2002: Best estimates,uncertainties and research needs

Reduction of carbon emissions from tropical deforestation and forest degradation is being considered a cost-effective way of mitigating the impacts of global warming. If such reductions are to be implemented, accurate and repeatable measurements of forest cover change and biomass will be required. In Papua New Guinea (PNG), which has one of the world's largest remaining areas of tropical forest, we used the best available data to estimate rainforest carbon stocks, and emissions from deforestation and degradation. We collated all available PNG field measurements which could be used to estimate carbon stocks in logged and unlogged forest. We extrapolated these plot-level estimates across the forested landscape using high-resolution forest mapping. We found the best estimate of forest carbon stocks contained in logged and unlogged forest in 2002 to be 4770 Mt (±13%). Our best estimate of gross forest carbon released through deforestation and degradation between 1972 and 2002 was 1178 Mt (±18%). By applying a long-term forest change model, we estimated that the carbon loss resulting from deforestation and degradation in 2001 was 53 Mt (±18%), rising from 24 Mt (±15%) in 1972. Forty-one percent of 2001 emissions resulted from logging, rising from 21% in 1972. Reducing emissions from logging is therefore a priority for PNG. The large uncertainty in our estimates of carbon stocks and fluxes is primarily due to the dearth of field measurements in both logged and unlogged forest, and the lack of PNG logging damage studies. Research priorities for PNG to increase the accuracy of forest carbon stock assessments are the collection of field measurements in unlogged forest and more spatially explicit logging damage studies.