Exploring possibly increasing trend of hurricane activity by a SiZer approach

Statistical studies of hurricane activity in the North Atlantic basin are of current interest, not the least after the year of 2005 when many records were broken. An exploratory analysis of possibly increasing trend of the yearly number of hurricanes can be carried out by employing a graphic device, the SiZer map. Use of this method provides a useful complement to other statistical techniques for detection of trends or shifts in time series.     

The intercoder agreement when using the Driving Reliability and Error Analysis Method in road traffic accident investigations

Many different classification schemes have been used in the analysis of road traffic accidents but the agreement between coders using the same classification scheme is rarely tested and/or reported. As a high intercoder agreement is a prerequisite for a study’s validity, this is a serious shortcoming. The aim of the present study was, therefore, to test the intercoder agreement of the Driving Reliability and Error Analysis Method (DREAM) version 3.0 by letting seven coders from different European countries analyse and classify the causes of the same four accident scenarios. The results showed that the intercoder agreement for genotypes (contributing factors) ranges from 74% to 94% with an average of 83%, while for phenotypes (observable effects) it ranges from 57% to 100% with an average of 78%. The results also showed that weaknesses in classification schemes, methods, training of coders as well as in presentation of accident information can be identified by testing the intercoder agreement.     

Assessing the Impacts of Long-Range Sulfur and Nitrogen Deposition on Arctic and Sub-Arctic Ecosystems

For more than a decade, anthropogenic sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) deposition has been identified as a key pollutant in the Arctic. In this study new critical loads of acidity (S and N) were estimated for terrestrial ecosystems north of 60° latitude by applying the Simple Mass Balance (SMB) model using two critical chemical criteria (Al/Bc = 1 and ANC_le = 0). Critical loads were exceeded in large areas of northern Europe and the Norilsk region in western Siberia during the 1990s, with the more stringent criterion (ANC_le = 0) showing the larger area of exceedance. However, modeled deposition estimates indicate that mean concentrations of sulfur oxides and total S deposition within the Arctic almost halved between 1990 and 2000. The modeled exceeded area is much reduced when currently agreed emission reductions are applied, and almost disappears under the implementation of maximum technically feasible reductions by 2020. In northern North America there was no exceedance under any of the deposition scenarios applied. Modeled N deposition was less than 5 kg ha⁻¹ y⁻¹ almost across the entire study area for all scenarios; and therefore empirical critical loads for the eutrophying impact of nitrogen are unlikely to be exceeded. The reduction in critical load exceedances is supported by observed improvements in surface water quality, whereas the observed extensive damage of terrestrial vegetation around the mining and smelter complexes in the area is mainly caused by direct impacts of air pollution and metals.     

Neglected sources of pharmaceuticals in river water--footprints of a Reggae festival

Wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) are commonly considered as the main source of pharmaceuticals in surface waters. Here, however, we show that an open-air festival, attracting approximately 10,000 visitors per year at the shores of River Fyris upstream of Uppsala WWTP, can temporarily result in a higher pharmaceutical input into the river water than the WWTP. Studying the influence of Uppsala Reggae festival on the occurrence of ten commonly used acidic and basic pharmaceuticals upstream, in the effluent, and downstream of the Uppsala WWTP, we found that occasional heavy rainfalls during the festival in 2008 severely increased the mass flows of all pharmaceuticals at the WWTP upstream site. Also, strong increases in ammonium (210-fold), nitrate (21-fold), and total nitrogen (21-fold) mass flows were observed. The pharmaceutical mass flows at the upstream site were up to 3.4 times higher than those observed in the WWTP effluent. In contrast, in 2009, the festival was not accompanied with rainfalls and no major additional input of pharmaceuticals and nitrogen was observed. The findings of this study give new insights into risk assessments and are relevant for monitoring programmes.     

Identification of acetylcholinesterase and cholinesterase in amniotic fluid by immune absorption technique

A method for immunological detection of acetylcholinesterase (AChE) and cholinesterase (ChE) in amniotic fluid is described. By addition of a small amount of antihuman-erythrocyte membrane antibody or anti-pseudocholinesterase antibody to the sample before electrophoresis the two esterase bands on polyacrylamide gel (PAG) can be absorbed away. Similar staining results can also be obtained by specific inhibition of the two esterases with either BW 284C51 (AChE inhibitor) or Lysivane (ChE inhibitor). In cases with a faint AChE band and in cases with blood contamination the immune absorption technique makes interpretation easier. Nearly identical staining results have been obtained by the immune absorption technique and the inhibition technique in the following samples with an AChE band: 34 samples from pregnancies with severe fetal malformation or intrauterine death (2 cases), 4 fetal serum samples, 4 samples of cerebrospinal fluid, 4 samples of fetal erythrolysate and 4 samples of adult erythrolysate. It can be concluded that an antibody prepared against erythrocyte AChE cross-reacts with AChE in cerebrospinal fluid, and that this antibody can be used for demonstration of AChE in amniotic fluid.     

Implementation of the first adaptive management plan for a European migratory waterbird population: The case of the Svalbard pink-footed goose <Emphasis Type="Italic">Anser brachyrhynchus</Emphasis>

An International Species Management Plan for the Svalbard population of the pink-footed goose was adopted under the Agreement on the Conservation of African-Eurasian Migratory Waterbirds in 2012, the first case of adaptive management of a migratory waterbird population in Europe. An international working group (including statutory agencies, NGO representatives and experts) agreed on objectives and actions to maintain the population in favourable conservation status, while accounting for biodiversity, economic and recreational interests. Agreements include setting a population target to reduce agricultural conflicts and avoid tundra degradation, and using hunting in some range states to maintain stable population size. As part of the adaptive management procedures, adjustment to harvest is made annually subject to population status. This has required streamlining of monitoring and assessment activities. Three years after implementation, indicators suggest the attainment of management results. Dialogue, consensus-building and engagement among stakeholders represent the major process achievements.     

Assessment of Long-Term Radiological Effects on Plants and Animals from a Deep Geological Repository: No Discernible Impact Detected

This study investigates whether non-human biota are protected against harmful effects of ionizing radiation after a possible future release of radioactive matter from a planned repository for spent nuclear fuel. Radiation dose rates to a broad spectrum of organisms were calculated based on data from sampled organisms and modeled activity concentrations. Calculations were performed with the ERICA Tool, a software program which applies a screening dose-rate value of 10 microgray per hour (μGy h^?1) for all types of organisms. Dose rates below this value are thought to result in minimal risk to the individual or population. All calculated dose rates were below the screening value and below the lowest relevant band of “derived consideration levels” proposed by the International Commission on Radiological Protection. This provides a sound basis for arguing that no individuals or populations of examined species would be harmfully affected by a possible radioactive release from the repository.     

Ranking Genetically Modified Plants According to Familiarity

In public debate GMPs are oftenreferred to as being unnatural or a violationof nature. Some people have serious moralconcerns about departures from what is natural.Others are concerned about potential risks tothe environment arising from the combination ofhereditary material moving across naturalboundaries and the limits of scientificforesight of long-term consequences. To addresssome of these concerns we propose that anadditional element in risk assessment based onthe concept of familiarity should beintroduced. The objective is to facilitatetransparency about uncertainties inherent inthe risk assessment of the GMP. Familiarityconventionally involves data and experiencerelating to the plant species and the ecosystemin question. We would like to extend thisconcept to the molecular level of plantbreeding and suggest that GMP characteristicsshould be compared to a reference baselinedetermined by conventional breeding techniques.Three GMPs are ranked according to familiarityat the plant and ecosystem level and themolecular level. The approach may help tointegrate discussion of the scientificarguments and moral questions raised in thedebate about GMOs by providing an operationalscheme within which moral concerns are broughtwithin the framework of science-based riskassessment.