Forecasting the Probability of Future Groundwater Levels Declining Below Specified Low Thresholds in the Conterminous U.S.

We present a logistic regression approach for forecasting the probability of future groundwater levels declining or maintaining below specific groundwater‐level thresholds. We tested our approach on 102 groundwater wells in different climatic regions and aquifers of the United States that are part of the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater Climate Response Network. We evaluated the importance of current groundwater levels, precipitation, streamflow, seasonal variability, Palmer Drought Severity Index, and atmosphere/ocean indices for developing the logistic regression equations. Several diagnostics of model fit were used to evaluate the regression equations, including testing of autocorrelation of residuals, goodness‐of‐fit metrics, and bootstrap validation testing. The probabilistic predictions were most successful at wells with high persistence (low month‐to‐month variability) in their groundwater records and at wells where the groundwater level remained below the defined low threshold for sustained periods (generally three months or longer). The model fit was weakest at wells with strong seasonal variability in levels and with shorter duration low‐threshold events. We identified challenges in deriving probabilistic‐forecasting models and possible approaches for addressing those challenges.     

Adaptation of institutional arrangements to management of Northern Rangelands of Kenya

Northern Rangelands of Kenya have continued to grapple with management challenges largely due to a lack of understanding of the dynamics thereof. Eroding customary institutions and new institutional arrangements characterize the system suggesting that adaptation is taking place to cope with the change. It is imperative that these socio-ecosystems adjust to the disturbance without disintegrating into a different state that is controlled by a different set of processes to ensure sustainable rangeland management. To understand the nature of change, the study sought to evaluate institutional arrangements engaged in tackling growing socio-economic and ecological factors challenging development within the last decade. Three study sites namely Kinna, Makurian and Westgate, representing three types of institutional arrangements (elders only, group ranch committee and community conservancy board), were investigated. Key informants, focused group discussions and household survey methods were used to gather data. Data were managed and analysed using Ms Access, Ms Excel, social network analysis and SPSS. Findings indicate that more actors (internal and external) are engaging in management of social economic and ecological factors challenging development within the last decade. The co-management approach allows increased capacity to tackle these challenges and further presents more opportunities for a diversified livelihood, two key features of ecosystem resilience. Findings are useful as the Kenya government implements the National Land Policy that recognizes the need to restructure community land and its management.     

Markets and climate are driving rapid change in farming practices in Savannah West Africa

Agricultural practices have constantly changed in West Africa, and understanding the factors that have driven the changes may help guide strategies to promote sustainable agriculture in the region. To contribute to such efforts, this paper analyzes drivers of change in farming practices in the region using data obtained from surveys of 700 farming households in five countries (Burkina Faso, Ghana, Mali, Niger and Senegal). The results showed that farmers have adopted various practices in response to the challenges they have faced during the last decade. A series of logit models showed that most changes farmers made to their practices are undertaken for multiple reasons. Land use and management changes including expanding farmed areas and using mineral fertilization and manure are positively related to perceived changes in the climate, such as more erratic rainfall. Planting new varieties, introducing new crops, crop rotation, expanding farmed area and using pesticides are positively associated with new market opportunities. Farm practices that require relatively high financial investment such as use of pesticides, drought-tolerant varieties and improved seeds were positively associated with the provision of technical and financial support for farmers through development projects and policies. Changes in markets and climate are both helping to promote needed changes in farming practices in West Africa. Therefore, policies that foster the development of markets for agricultural products, and improved weather- and climate-related information linked to knowledge of appropriate agricultural innovations in different environments are needed.     

Rangeland Fire Protection Associations as disaster response organisations

Rangeland Fire Protection Associations (RFPAs) are volunteer-based groups of trained private landowners who are authorised to respond to events in partnership with governmental agencies. This study analysed the functioning and structure of RFPAs in Idaho and Oregon in the western United States to characterise this under-researched model of disaster response. RFPAs represent an expanding type of disaster response organisation that interfaces with established fire suppression entities, yet ‘emergent behaviour’ manifested in some RFPA response actions. This appeared to lessen and mediate with time, as well as due to recognition of the issues, increased experience of fires, and training that fostered new mutual understandings. There is a need for continued examination of the effect of repeat experience in developing the characteristics of disaster response organisations. In addition, it is crucial to know how the interface between established and other types of organisations may be enhanced to make cooperative disaster response more effective.     

Characterizing Small Subbasins: A Case Study from Coastal Oregon

A fine-grained statisticaly robust probability sample of stream segments is used to compare two small (20,000 hectare) subbasins of the Tillamook watershed, north coastal Oregon. The two subbasins are matched with respect to several variables [size coastal climates], but vary in terms of geology and consequently land use. A total of 67 wadeable + non-wadeable sizes were identified for sampling in the two subbasins (combined) over two field seasons from a sampling universe consisting of the River Reach File 3 (blue lines on 1:100,000 maps). Target variables include an extensive array of physical habitat endpoints, selected water chemistry endpoints, species composition, and relative abundance of both benthic macroinvertebrates and fish. Field protocols generally followed those of the U.S. EPA's Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP).Eleven fish species were encountered, a typically low number for coastal Oregon streams. Exploratory analysis using nonmetric multidimensional scaling revealed that 92.4% of the variation in the fish assemblages could be explained with two ordination axes. Environmental factors related to stream size and substate were the most correlated to these axes. Further, stream segments for the two subbasins tended to map in different areas of species space. Therefore, we also give unweighted probability distributions for several of the factors that heavily on these two axes by subbasins, as well as probability distributions for chemical endpoints. Results from the subset of sites sampled during the first year (21 wadeable sites) reveal: 1) differences between samples from the two subbasins relates to dream size and substrate composition that are consistent with known differences in geology and land use, 2) unexpectedly minor differences between samples from the two subbasins for stream temperature, canopy cover, and dissolved oxygen, 3) differences between samples from the two subbasins for total P, and total N, possibly related to land use, and 4) unexpected differences in samples from the two subbasins for conductivity, probably related to geological factors. Sample size for each subbasin is low and therefore our samples cannot be taken to necessarily characterize either subbasin. However, our findings are consistent with a comprehensive assessment that had been previously produced for one of the two subbasins.All field work was completed in 8 weeks 3-person field crew. We conclude that rapid assessment protocols, based on probability samples at this level of resolution, can be a cost-effective approach to watershed analysis. This approach should be seen as a complement to, rather than a replacement for, systematic surveys that produced finer scale, reach specific information on factors such as channel complexity and cover relevant to in-stream restoration planning.     

Multi-level network governance of disaster risks: the case of the Metropolitan Region of the Aburra Valley (Medellin,Colombia)

Cities have increasingly been confronted with disasters, ranging from earthquakes and storms to floods and landslides. Traditional technocratic top-down approaches have proved inadequate to face disaster risks in urban agglomerations. Thus, expectations have risen that through multi-level governance, metropolitan regions could become more resilient by joining forces across scales and sectors, enabling them to implement adaptation strategies collectively. Under the leadership of the city of Medellin and integrated within the national risk governance system of Colombia, such a governance arrangement has been established in the Metropolitan Area of the Aburra Valley. Applying social network analysis, this paper analyses the institutional relationships within the multi-level risk governance network Red Riesgos. It demonstrates that the effectiveness of multi-level disaster risk governance networks depends primarily on the protagonist role of local governments and on their abilities to involve local communities and citizens and to interact constantly with higher-level authorities in the implementation process.     

Quantifying dispersal and establishment limitation in a population of an epiphytic lichen

Dispersal is a process critical for the dynamics and persistence of metapopulations, but it is difficult to quantify. It has been suggested that the old-forest lichen Lobaria pulmonaria is limited by insufficient dispersal ability. We analyzed 240 DNA extracts derived from snow samples by a L. pulmonaria-specific real-time PCR (polymerase chain reaction) assay of the ITS (internal transcribed spacer) region allowing for the discrimination among propagules originating from a single, isolated source tree or propagules originating from other locations. Samples that were detected as positives by real-time PCR were additionally genotyped for five L. pulmonaria microsatellite loci. Both molecular approaches demonstrated substantial dispersal from other than local sources. In a landscape approach, we additionally analyzed 240 snow samples with real-time PCR of ITS and detected propagules not only in forests where L. pulmonaria was present, but also in large unforested pasture areas and in forest patches where L. pulmonaria was not found. Monitoring of soredia of L. pulmonaria transplanted to maple bark after two vegetation periods showed high variance in growth among forest stands, but no significant differences among different transplantation treatments. Hence, it is probably not dispersal limitation that hinders colonization in the old-forest lichen L. pulmonaria, but ecological constraints at the stand level that can result in establishment limitation. Our study exemplifies that care has to be taken to adequately separate the effects of dispersal limitation from a limitation of establishment.     

Air emission inventories in North America: a critical assessment

Although emission inventories are the foundation of air quality management and have supported substantial improvements in North American air quality, they have a number of shortcomings that can potentially lead to ineffective air quality management strategies. Major reductions in the largest emissions sources have made accurate inventories of previously minor sources much more important to the understanding and improvement of local air quality. Changes in manufacturing processes, industry types, vehicle technologies, and metropolitan infrastructure are occurring at an increasingly rapid pace, emphasizing the importance of inventories that reflect current conditions. New technologies for measuring source emissions and ambient pollutant concentrations, both at the point of emissions and from remote platforms, are providing novel approaches to collecting data for inventory developers. Advances in information technologies are allowing data to be shared more quickly, more easily, and processed and compared in novel ways that can speed the development of emission inventories. Approaches to improving quantitative measures of inventory uncertainty allow air quality management decisions to take into account the uncertainties associated with emissions estimates, providing more accurate projections of how well alternative strategies may work. This paper discusses applications of these technologies and techniques to improve the accuracy, timeliness, and completeness of emission inventories across North America and outlines a series of eight recommendations aimed at inventory developers and air quality management decision-makers to improve emission inventories and enable them to support effective air quality management decisions for the foreseeable future.     

Understanding organizational diversity management programs: A theoretical framework and directions for future research

With the changing demographic composition of the workforce, managing diversity in organizations is an important organizational function. Organizations have employed varying approaches to diversity management (DM), resulting in varying organizational outcomes. Meanwhile, researchers have called for more theoretical development within the DM area. We present a framework rooted in social and cross‐cultural psychological research, to foster theory development and empirical testing in the area of DM. We also derive several propositions to guide future research on DM and note some boundary conditions that suggest research opportunities of their own. Our framework contributes a theoretical conceptualization that enhances our understanding of organizations' DM efforts, integrates current typologies, and suggests new directions of inquiry for management scholars as well as guidelines for practitioners in the area. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.