A criterion validity test of the contingent valuation method: comparing hypothetical and actual voting behavior for a public referendum

This study pursues external validation of contingent valuation by comparing survey results with the voting outcome of a Corvallis, Oregon, referendum to fund a riverfront improvement project through increased property taxes. Survey respondents hypothetically make a voting decision—with no financial consequences—on the upcoming referendum. The survey sample consists of respondents verified to have voted in the election. We use available precinct-level election data to compare the proportion of “yes” survey and referendum votes as well as estimate voting models and mean willingness to pay (WTP) based on the two sets of data. We find that survey responses match the actual voting outcome and WTP estimates based on the two are not statistically different. Contrary to similar studies, our statistical results do not depend on re-coding the majority of “undecided” survey responses to “no.” Furthermore, such a re-coding of responses may be inappropriate for our data set.     

In vitro genotoxicity of exhaust emissions of diesel and gasoline engine vehicles operated on a unified driving cycle

Acetone extracts of engine exhaust particulate matter (PM) and of vapor-phase semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs) collected from a set of 1998-2000 model year normal emitter diesel engine automobile or light trucks and from a set of 1982-1996 normal emitter gasoline engine automobiles or light trucks operated on the California Unified Driving Cycle at 22 [degree]C were assayed for in vitro genotoxic activities. Gasoline and diesel PM were comparably positive mutagens for Salmonella typhimurium strains YG1024 and YG1029 on a mass of PM extract basis with diesel higher on a mileage basis; gasoline SVOC was more active than diesel on an extracted-mass basis, with diesel SVOC more active on a mileage basis. For chromosomal damage indicated by micronucleus induction in Chinese hamster lung fibroblasts (V79 cells), diesel PM expressed about one-tenth that of gasoline PM on a mass of extract basis, but was comparably active on a mileage basis; diesel SVOC was inactive. For DNA damage in V79 cells indicated by the single cell gel electrophoresis (SCGE) assay, gasoline PM was positive while diesel PM was active at the higher doses; gasoline SVOC was active with toxicity preventing measurement at high doses, while diesel SVOC was inactive at all but the highest dose.     

A case study of contaminants on military ranges: Camp Edwards, Massachusetts, USA

An extensive investigation at the Camp Edwards, Massachusetts Military Reservation (MMR) demonstrates that assessment of groundwater and soil contamination at military ranges can be limited primarily to explosive-related compounds such as RDX, HMX, perchlorate, TNT and their transformation products. A modified analytical method is recommended to expand the list of explosives and to improve the detection limits. Analyses of metals, VOCs, SVOCs, and TICs are unnecessary. Soil samples may require the analyses of PAHs and PCNs for burn areas. Camp Edwards, as one of the few military ranges that have been exhaustively investigated for contaminants, is an ideal point of departure for evaluating other ranges. The permeable site soils promote leaching of contaminants and inhibit biotic and abiotic transformations. Moreover, the site has experienced an unusual extent of activities in its more than ninety years of active use. The recommendations in this report are based on data obtained for more than 200 analytes from more than 15,000 environmental samples.     

SUBJECTIVE DECISION-MAKING FOR URBAN WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT1

ABSTRACT: Bayesian decision theory provides a procedure for the use of subjective data in a decision-making situation related to urban water resources development. This procedure is effectual in pursuing a set of goals and in transforming individual or group indecisiveness into satisfactory decisions. This approach is highlighted due to its capability to incorporate seemingly unquantifiable, abstract factors into the decision-making process. It is realized that the soliciting of expert and general public opinion is indispensable in making choices for the welfare of the general public from alternative courses of action under uncertainty. The analysis presented here considers engineering alternatives, quality, quantity, cost and the intangible public response in an integrated effort for the selection of optimum strategies in urban water resources development.     

Social learning and sustainable communities: An interim assessment of research into sustainable communities projects in the UK

The delivery of many of the most pressing environmental issues will rely on changes in environmental attitudes and behaviour at community level. At a UN Special Session in 1997, the British Government highlighted its initiatives on Local Agenda 21 (LA21) and Going for Green (GFG) as significant advances. This paper adds a new perspective, drawing on the range of experiences of some of the research teams that have been working with local authorities on pilot Sustainable Community Projects (SCPs) in England and Scotland. It sheds light on three substantive themes: the tensions inherent in the implementation of internationally and nationally agreed goals through local action; the ambiguity of local agencies acting as facilitators of community ownership of processes, and the requirements for successful partnership between local authorities and higher education.     

Practical considerations for kriging groundwater surfaces

Kriging is an accepted method of characterizing the groundwater elevation surface at sites where the water level data are available but where there may be insufficient additional data necessary for groundwater flow modeling. Groundwater surface interpolation via kriging is readily performed using commercial, state of the practice software, but some practitioners may not be able to justify such efforts because the process is not validated within studies documented in the peer‐reviewed literature. This paper describes the available kriging software and literature studies and then uses a case study to compare practical groundwater surface modeling to the studies available in the scientific literature. The literature review shows that the state of the practice as represented by the commercial software approach is consistent with the literature. Specifically, cokriging with groundwater elevation as the primary variable with trend removal and ground‐surface elevation as the secondary variable is an appropriate point of departure in practice. The literature review‐based summary of variogram model parameters (model type, nugget, sill, range, and trend model) was not useful as a quality‐control step to assess the reasonableness of variogram parameters identified by the standard practice of software‐assisted iteration when applied to the case‐study data set. The literature review indicated that groundwater elevation kriging has been performed using as few as 10 data points but a comparison of the case‐study simulated groundwater elevations and groundwater gradient magnitudes and directions indicated that the 30‐well threshold more commonly found in the literature was an appropriate minimum at the study site.     

Response to Kruse-Plass et al. (2017) regarding the risk to non-target lepidopteran larvae exposed to pollen from one or more of three Bt maize events (MON810, Bt11 and 1507)

We respond to the paper of Kruse-Plass et al. (Environ Sci Eur 29:12, 2017), published in this journal, regarding the risk to non-target lepidopteran larvae exposed to pollen from one or more of three Bt maize events (MON810, Bt11 and 1507). We emphasise that what is important for environmental risk assessment is not the number of pollen grains per se, but the degree of exposure of a NT lepidopteran larva to Bt protein contained in maize pollen. The main text of this response deals with general issues which Kruse-Plass et al. have failed to understand; more detailed refutations of each of their claims are given in Additional file 1. Valid environmental risk assessment requires direct measurement of pollen on leaves at varying distances outside a source field(s); such measurements reflect the potential exposure experienced by an individual larva on a host plant. There are no new data in the Kruse-Plass et al. paper, or indeed any data directly quantifying pollen on actual host-plant leaves outside a maize field; only data gathered within or at the edge of maize crops were reported. Values quoted by Kruse-Plass et al. for deposition on host plants outside the field were estimates only. We reiterate the severe methodological criticisms made by EFSA [Relevance of a new scientific publication (Hofmann et al. 2016) for previous environmental risk assessment conclusions and risk management recommendations on the cultivation of Bt-maize events MON810, Bt11 and 1507. EFSA Supp Publ; EN-1070, 2016], which render this estimation procedure unreliable. Furthermore, criticisms of EFSA (EFSA J 2015(13):4127, 2015) and of EFSA [Relevance of a new scientific publication (Hofmann et al. 2016) for previous environmental risk assessment conclusions and risk management recommendations on the cultivation of Bt-maize events MON810, Bt11 and 1507. EFSA Supp Publ; EN-1070, 2016] made by Kruse-Plass et al. are shown in Additional file 1 to be without foundation. We therefore consider that there is no valid evidence presented by Kruse-Plass et al. to justify their conclusions.     

Climate suitability as a predictor of conservation translocation failure

The continuing decline and loss of biodiversity has caused an increase in the use of interventionist conservation tools, such as translocation. However, many translocation attempts fail to establish viable populations, with poor release site selection often flagged as an inhibitor of success. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict the climate suitability of 102 release sites for amphibians, reptiles, and terrestrial insects and compared suitability predictions between successful and failed attempts. We then quantified the importance of climate suitability relative to 5 other variables frequently considered in the literature as important determinants of translocation success: number of release years, number of individuals released, life stage released, origin of the source population, and position of the release site relative to the species’ range. Probability of translocation success increased as predicted climate suitability increased and this effect was the strongest among the variables we considered, accounting for 48.3% of the variation in translocation outcome. These findings should encourage greater consideration of climate suitability when selecting release sites for conservation translocations and we advocate the use of SDMs as an effective way to do this.