Multi-decadal changes in tundra environments and ecosystems: synthesis of the International Polar Year-Back to the Future project (IPY-BTF)

Understanding the responses of tundra systems to global change has global implications. Most tundra regions lack sustained environmental monitoring and one of the only ways to document multi-decadal change is to resample historic research sites. The International Polar Year (IPY) provided a unique opportunity for such research through the Back to the Future (BTF) project (IPY project #512). This article synthesizes the results from 13 papers within this Ambio Special Issue. Abiotic changes include glacial recession in the Altai Mountains, Russia; increased snow depth and hardness, permafrost warming, and increased growing season length in sub-arctic Sweden; drying of ponds in Greenland; increased nutrient availability in Alaskan tundra ponds, and warming at most locations studied. Biotic changes ranged from relatively minor plant community change at two sites in Greenland to moderate change in the Yukon, and to dramatic increases in shrub and tree density on Herschel Island, and in subarctic Sweden. The population of geese tripled at one site in northeast Greenland where biomass in non-grazed plots doubled. A model parameterized using results from a BTF study forecasts substantial declines in all snowbeds and increases in shrub tundra on Niwot Ridge, Colorado over the next century. In general, results support and provide improved capacities for validating experimental manipulation, remote sensing, and modeling studies.     

The length of growing season and adult sex ratio affect sexual size dimorphism in moose

While factors affecting body growth have been extensively studied, very little is known about the factors likely to affect the sexual size dimorphism (SSD) in polygynous mammals. Based on the carcass mass of 24420 male and female moose recorded in 14 Norwegian populations, we examine three hypotheses to explain geographical variation in SSD. First, SSD is expected to decrease when the relative density of animals (for a given habitat quality) increases, because resource limitation at high population densities is assumed to affect body growth of males more than females. Second, because males are selected to invest in growth more than females, environmental seasonality and related improvement of the forage quality during the short and intense growing season are expected to increase SSD. Third, by decreasing the proportion of adult males in the population, resulting in start of rutting earlier in life, hunting may decrease the SSD by increasing the reproductive cost of young males. We found that males grew faster and for a longer time of their life than did females and thus were heavier (-24%) when they reached adulthood. Sexual size dimorphism was independent of density but was higher in areas with short growing seasons. The low SSD in populations with largely adult female-biased sex ratios (males per female) shows that male body growth decreases with a decreasing proportion of adult males in the population. Our results indicate that geographical variation in moose SSD is influenced by divergent responses in the sexes to ecological factors affecting body growth.     

Facilitation in an insect-pollinated herb with a floral display dimorphism

Population context should influence pollination success and selection on floral display in animal-pollinated plants because attraction of pollinators depends not only on the characteristics of individual plants, but also on the attractiveness of co-occurring conspecifics. The insect-pollinated herb Primula farinosa is polymorphic for inflorescence height. Natural populations may include both long-scaped plants, which present their flowers well above the soil surface, and short-scaped plants, with their flowers positioned close to the ground. We experimentally tested whether seed production in short-scaped P. farinosa varied with local morph frequency and surrounding vegetation height. In tall vegetation, short-scaped plants in polymorphic populations produced more fruit and tended to produce more seeds than short-scaped plants did in monomorphic populations. In low vegetation, population composition did not significantly affect fruit and seed output of short-scaped plants. The results suggest that long-scaped plants facilitate short-scaped plants in terms of pollinator attraction and that the facilitation effect is contingent on the height of the surrounding vegetation. The documented facilitation should contribute to the maintenance of the scape length polymorphism in ungrazed areas where litter accumulates and vegetation grows tall.     

Carbon budgets for catchments across a managed landscape mosaic in southeast Sweden: contributing to the safety assessment of a nuclear waste repository

Ecosystem budgets of matter contribute to the assessment of transport and accumulation of bioavailable contaminants in a landscape, since flows of matter and energy ultimately determine the rates at which contaminants will be partitioned in the environment. This study compares ecosystem properties, such as net primary production (NPP), sequestration of matter and fluxes to food sources for humans, which are of potential interest to describe fluxes and accumulation of bioavailable radionuclides in 14 catchments within a larger catchment area in southeast Sweden. The carbon budgets, used as a proxy for organic matter, are mainly based on local estimates of pools and fluxes, which have been distributed across a landscape mosaic of different vegetation types and management regimes using a geographical information system (GIS). NPP varied by a factor close to two (432 - 709 g x Cx m(-2)x y(-1)), while net ecosystem production ranged between -124 and 159 gx C x m(-2) x y (-1) for the different catchments. Carbon sequestration mainly occurred in the vegetation while the soil organic carbon pool was mainly a source of carbon. Large herbivores consumed on average 4.5 % of the above-ground green tissue production. When arable land was present in the catchment, the flux of carbon to humans was highest from crops and, in decreasing order, milk and beef, followed by the flux from hunting and berry/fungus picking. The results can be used to estimate the potential assimilation of radionuclides in vegetation and the potential exposure to humans of bioavailable radionuclides.     

Selective supercritical fluid extraction to identify aged sediment-bound PCBs available for uptake by eel

A naturally contaminated sediment was partially extracted with selective supercritical fluid extraction (SFE) to remove a fraction of supposedly bioavailable PCBs from the matrix. Eels (Anguilla anguilla) were cultured in systems with untreated and pre-extracted sediment, respectively, and it was shown that the SFE treatment selectively removed bioavailable PCBs from the sediment, since relative biota-to-sediment accumulation factors (BSAFs) for the eight studied PCB congeners were much lower in the pre-extracted than in the untreated system at the end of the study. Relative BSAF values decreased with about the same relative amount for all eight congeners, independent of the degree of chlorination and the initial concentration in the sediment. The results demonstrate the ability of SFE to selectively remove sediment-bound PCBs that are available for uptake by the eels, thus demonstrating the feasibility of using selective SFE to estimate bioavailability of PCBs in sediments.     

Estimates of black carbon and size-resolved particle number emission factors from residential wood burning based on ambient monitoring and model simulations

In this paper we derive typical emission factors for coarse particulate matter (PM(10)), oxides of nitrogen (NO(x)), black carbon (BC), and number particle size distributions based on a combination of measurements and air quality dispersion modeling. The advantage of this approach is that the emission factors represent integrated emissions from several vehicle types and different types of wood stoves. Normally it is very difficult to estimate the total emissions in cities on the basis of laboratory measurements on single vehicles or stoves because of the large variability in conditions. The measurements were made in Temuco, Chile, between April 18 and June 15, 2005 at two sites. The first one was located in a residential area relatively far from major roads. The second site was located in a busy street in downtown Temuco where wood consumption is low. The measurements support the assumption that the monitoring sites represent the impact of different emission sources, namely traffic and residential wood combustion (RWC). Fitting model results to the available measurements, emission factors were obtained for PM(10) (RWC = 2160 +/- 100 mg/kg; traffic = 610 +/- 51 mg/veh-km), NO(x) (RWC = 800 +/- 100 mg/kg; traffic = 4400 +/- 100 mg/veh-km), BC (RWC = 74 +/- 6 mg/kg; traffic = 60 +/- 3 mg/veh-km) and particle number (N) with size distribution between 25 and 600 nm (N(25-600)) (RWC = 8.9 +/- 1 x 10(14) pt/kg; traffic = 6.7 +/- 0.5 x 10(14) pt/veh-km). The obtained emission factors are comparable to results reported in the literature. The size distribution of the N emission factors for traffic was shown to be different than for RWC. The main difference is that although traffic emissions show a bimodal size distribution with a main mode below 30 nm and a secondary one around 100 nm, RWC emissions show the main mode slightly below 100 nm and a smaller nucleation mode below 50 nm.     

Pragmatic estimation of a spatio-temporal air quality model with irregular monitoring data

Statistical analyses of health effects of air pollution have increasingly used GIS-based covariates for prediction of ambient air quality in “land use” regression models. More recently these spatial regression models have accounted for spatial correlation structure in combining monitoring data with land use covariates. We present a flexible spatio-temporal modeling framework and pragmatic, multi-step estimation procedure that accommodates essentially arbitrary patterns of missing data with respect to an ideally complete space by time matrix of observations on a network of monitoring sites. The methodology incorporates a model for smooth temporal trends with coefficients varying in space according to Partial Least Squares regressions on a large set of geographic covariates and nonstationary modeling of spatio-temporal residuals from these regressions. This work was developed to provide spatial point predictions of PM_2.5 concentrations for the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air) using irregular monitoring data derived from the AQS regulatory monitoring network and supplemental short-time scale monitoring campaigns conducted to better predict intra-urban variation in air quality. We demonstrate the interpretation and accuracy of this methodology in modeling data from 2000 through 2006 in six U.S. metropolitan areas and establish a basis for likelihood-based estimation.     

Vision complements echolocation in an aerial-hawking bat

The northern bat Eptesicus nilssonii normally hunts flying insects in the air using frequency-modulated echolocation calls. It is also known to detect and catch visually conspicuous prey (white moths) hovering low among grass stalks. To overcome the problem with acoustic clutter from the grass, which interferes with target echo detection, the bats make use of visual cues in addition to those of echolocation. We therefore investigated the minimum size of prey that the bats could distinguish by using vision, by presenting the bats with different sized dead and spread moths. We found that vision increased the chance of detection only when the moths had a wingspan of at least 5 cm. Smaller targets were detected using echolocation alone. The mean detection range was 3.5 m, suggesting that the bats need a visual acuity of 49 of arc to detect the prey. This is consistent with results of optomotor response tests and counts of retinal ganglion cells in closely related species. Our results suggest that the visual acuity of Eptesicus bats may not be adequate for prey detection under normal conditions, but that the bats can use vision when the prey is unusually large and conspicuous. The northern bats display a flexibility in prey detection techniques not previously recognised among aerial-hawking bats and they are able to use their full visual capacity in the field.     

ASSESSMENT USING GIS AND SEDIMENT ROUTING OF THE PROPOSED REMOVAL OF BALLVILLE DAM,SANDUSKY RIVER,OHIO1

ABSTRACT: The proposed removal of Ballville Dam was assessed by (1) using a new Geographic Information Systems (GIS) based method for calculating reservoir sediment storage, (2) evaluating sediment properties and contamination from core data, and (3) assessing downstream impacts from sediment routing calculations. A 1903 (pre‐dam) map was manipulated using GIS to recreate the reservoir bathymetry at time of dam construction and used in combination with a detailed 1993 bathymetric survey to calculate sediment volumes and thickness. Reservoir sediment properties and geochemistry were determined from 14 sediment vibracores. Annual sedimentation rates varied from 1.7 to 4.3 g/cm²/yr based on Cesium‐137 (¹³⁷Cs) and Lead‐210 (²¹⁰Pb) geochronology and dated flood layers. The pore fluid geochemistry (Ba, Co, Cu, Mn) of four cores showed surficial enrichments in Cu, while Co and Mn show secondary peaks within the sediments. GIS calculations showed that a designed channel through the former reservoir able to accommodate the 10 percent Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) would require removing approximately 0.35 million m³ of sediment (27 percent of the reservoir fill), either by dredging at a cost of up to $6.3 million or by releasing fine grained sediment downstream. A sediment routing model was applied for the critical 6 km downstream using four cross sections. The sediment routing model predicts that, for flows exceeding minimum Mean Daily Flow (1924 to 1998 data), greater than 90 percent of this sediment would be transported through downstream reaches into Lake Erie (Sandusky Bay).