Testing the Potential for Predictive Modeling and Mapping and Extending Its Use as a Tool for Evaluating Management Scenarios and Economic Valuation in the Baltic Sea (PREHAB)

We evaluated performance of species distribution models for predictive mapping, and how models can be used to integrate human pressures into ecological and economic assessments. A selection of 77 biological variables (species, groups of species, and measures of biodiversity) across the Baltic Sea were modeled. Differences among methods, areas, predictor, and response variables were evaluated. Several methods successfully predicted abundance and occurrence of vegetation, invertebrates, fish, and functional aspects of biodiversity. Depth and substrate were among the most important predictors. Models incorporating water clarity were used to predict increasing cover of the brown alga bladderwrack Fucus vesiculosus and increasing reproduction area of perch Perca fluviatilis, but decreasing reproduction areas for pikeperch Sander lucioperca following successful implementation of the Baltic Sea Action Plan. Despite variability in estimated non-market benefits among countries, such changes were highly valued by citizens in the three Baltic countries investigated. We conclude that predictive models are powerful and useful tools for science-based management of the Baltic Sea.     

Estimates of black carbon and size-resolved particle number emission factors from residential wood burning based on ambient monitoring and model simulations

In this paper we derive typical emission factors for coarse particulate matter (PM(10)), oxides of nitrogen (NO(x)), black carbon (BC), and number particle size distributions based on a combination of measurements and air quality dispersion modeling. The advantage of this approach is that the emission factors represent integrated emissions from several vehicle types and different types of wood stoves. Normally it is very difficult to estimate the total emissions in cities on the basis of laboratory measurements on single vehicles or stoves because of the large variability in conditions. The measurements were made in Temuco, Chile, between April 18 and June 15, 2005 at two sites. The first one was located in a residential area relatively far from major roads. The second site was located in a busy street in downtown Temuco where wood consumption is low. The measurements support the assumption that the monitoring sites represent the impact of different emission sources, namely traffic and residential wood combustion (RWC). Fitting model results to the available measurements, emission factors were obtained for PM(10) (RWC = 2160 +/- 100 mg/kg; traffic = 610 +/- 51 mg/veh-km), NO(x) (RWC = 800 +/- 100 mg/kg; traffic = 4400 +/- 100 mg/veh-km), BC (RWC = 74 +/- 6 mg/kg; traffic = 60 +/- 3 mg/veh-km) and particle number (N) with size distribution between 25 and 600 nm (N(25-600)) (RWC = 8.9 +/- 1 x 10(14) pt/kg; traffic = 6.7 +/- 0.5 x 10(14) pt/veh-km). The obtained emission factors are comparable to results reported in the literature. The size distribution of the N emission factors for traffic was shown to be different than for RWC. The main difference is that although traffic emissions show a bimodal size distribution with a main mode below 30 nm and a secondary one around 100 nm, RWC emissions show the main mode slightly below 100 nm and a smaller nucleation mode below 50 nm.     

Pragmatic estimation of a spatio-temporal air quality model with irregular monitoring data

Statistical analyses of health effects of air pollution have increasingly used GIS-based covariates for prediction of ambient air quality in “land use” regression models. More recently these spatial regression models have accounted for spatial correlation structure in combining monitoring data with land use covariates. We present a flexible spatio-temporal modeling framework and pragmatic, multi-step estimation procedure that accommodates essentially arbitrary patterns of missing data with respect to an ideally complete space by time matrix of observations on a network of monitoring sites. The methodology incorporates a model for smooth temporal trends with coefficients varying in space according to Partial Least Squares regressions on a large set of geographic covariates and nonstationary modeling of spatio-temporal residuals from these regressions. This work was developed to provide spatial point predictions of PM_2.5 concentrations for the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air) using irregular monitoring data derived from the AQS regulatory monitoring network and supplemental short-time scale monitoring campaigns conducted to better predict intra-urban variation in air quality. We demonstrate the interpretation and accuracy of this methodology in modeling data from 2000 through 2006 in six U.S. metropolitan areas and establish a basis for likelihood-based estimation.     

Vision complements echolocation in an aerial-hawking bat

The northern bat Eptesicus nilssonii normally hunts flying insects in the air using frequency-modulated echolocation calls. It is also known to detect and catch visually conspicuous prey (white moths) hovering low among grass stalks. To overcome the problem with acoustic clutter from the grass, which interferes with target echo detection, the bats make use of visual cues in addition to those of echolocation. We therefore investigated the minimum size of prey that the bats could distinguish by using vision, by presenting the bats with different sized dead and spread moths. We found that vision increased the chance of detection only when the moths had a wingspan of at least 5 cm. Smaller targets were detected using echolocation alone. The mean detection range was 3.5 m, suggesting that the bats need a visual acuity of 49 of arc to detect the prey. This is consistent with results of optomotor response tests and counts of retinal ganglion cells in closely related species. Our results suggest that the visual acuity of Eptesicus bats may not be adequate for prey detection under normal conditions, but that the bats can use vision when the prey is unusually large and conspicuous. The northern bats display a flexibility in prey detection techniques not previously recognised among aerial-hawking bats and they are able to use their full visual capacity in the field.     

ASSESSMENT USING GIS AND SEDIMENT ROUTING OF THE PROPOSED REMOVAL OF BALLVILLE DAM,SANDUSKY RIVER,OHIO1

ABSTRACT: The proposed removal of Ballville Dam was assessed by (1) using a new Geographic Information Systems (GIS) based method for calculating reservoir sediment storage, (2) evaluating sediment properties and contamination from core data, and (3) assessing downstream impacts from sediment routing calculations. A 1903 (pre‐dam) map was manipulated using GIS to recreate the reservoir bathymetry at time of dam construction and used in combination with a detailed 1993 bathymetric survey to calculate sediment volumes and thickness. Reservoir sediment properties and geochemistry were determined from 14 sediment vibracores. Annual sedimentation rates varied from 1.7 to 4.3 g/cm²/yr based on Cesium‐137 (¹³⁷Cs) and Lead‐210 (²¹⁰Pb) geochronology and dated flood layers. The pore fluid geochemistry (Ba, Co, Cu, Mn) of four cores showed surficial enrichments in Cu, while Co and Mn show secondary peaks within the sediments. GIS calculations showed that a designed channel through the former reservoir able to accommodate the 10 percent Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) would require removing approximately 0.35 million m³ of sediment (27 percent of the reservoir fill), either by dredging at a cost of up to $6.3 million or by releasing fine grained sediment downstream. A sediment routing model was applied for the critical 6 km downstream using four cross sections. The sediment routing model predicts that, for flows exceeding minimum Mean Daily Flow (1924 to 1998 data), greater than 90 percent of this sediment would be transported through downstream reaches into Lake Erie (Sandusky Bay).     

Elemental concentrations in air, water, and aquatic biota in two rural provinces in northern Vietnam

The present study on environmental pollution in northern Vietnam investigates elemental concentrations in fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), freshwater, and aquatic biota at two sites with differing levels of industrial activities. An Thin is situated 47 km east of Hanoi in the neighbourhood of a coal combustion power plant, whereas the reference site, Duy Minh, is situated in the agricultural province of Ha Nam, 40 km south of Hanoi. Elemental concentrations were analysed using energy-dispersive X-ray fluorescence, total reflection X-ray fluorescence, and graphite furnace atomic absorption spectro-metry. All investigated elements in fine particles (PM_2.5) had significantly higher concentrations in An Thin, thus identifying the air at this site as polluted. In contrast to the aerosol samples, elemental concentrations as well as quantitative differences between the sampling sites were low in freshwater and biota, indicating that the impact of atmospheric deposition was limited.     

Dense resistivity and induced polarization profiling for a landfill restoration project at H?rl?v, Southern Sweden.

A resistivity and time-domain induced polarization (IP) survey was conducted at a landfill site under restoration at H?rl?v in Southern Sweden. The covering of the landfill had begun some years ago, without keeping precise records of the work done, as is usual in such procedures. The survey was conducted in two steps, on two adjacent areas. First, a number of geoelectrical sections were made on a partly covered area that had been investigated earlier by auger drilling, in order to assist restoration. Then, a second area that should have received its final cover was imaged, and some defects in the cover could be detected and repaired. The resistivity and time-domain IP results were consistent with the results of the geotechnical drillings, and they enabled quasi-continuous mapping along the profiles. Three-dimensional visualization showed the overall consistency of the two-dimensional lines, and helped to generate a global view of the site. In spite of some ambiguities, cover and waste could be distinguished in most cases. In particular, fine-grained cover materials could be clearly distinguished from other cover materials.