Sustainable Development and Institutional Design: The Example of the Mersey Basin Campaign

The Mersey Basin Campaign was established in 1985 in the North West of England to address continuing problems of water quality and associated landward dereliction of the River Mersey and its tributaries. The Campaign's premise that water quality should be improved both for its own sake and as a stimulus to regeneration has proved to be well founded and has subsequently been extended to embrace community action to help nurture watercourse improvement and care. The Campaign can now be seen as a model for engaging co-ordinated environmental action through a partnership approach. This paper explores the nature of the Mersey Basin Campaign as an example of the new structures which are being developed in order to help deliver the new environmentalpolicy agenda. It is argued that the Campaign stands as a model for what will become an increasing need to develop focused environmental planning and management at the sub-regional and regional scales.     

Prioritization of Ecosystem Services Research: Tampa Bay Demonstration Project

The Tampa Bay Ecosystem Services Demonstration Project (TBESDP) is part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Ecosystem Services Research Program. The principal objectives of TBESDP are to (1) quantify the ecosystem services of the Tampa Bay watershed, (2) determine the value of ecosystem services to society, (3) predict the supply of ecosystem services under future scenarios of population growth and climate change, and (4) apply this knowledge through models and tools that will support the best informed environmental decisions possible. The scope and complexity of this project required intensive effort to establish which services can be quantified by applying existing models, data, and scientific literature and which services will require supporting research. Research priorities were assessed by: (1) developing and refining conceptual models of major ecosystems in the Tampa Bay region, (2) gathering input from stakeholders about the relative importance and values of various ecosystem services, (3) preparing and reviewing a bibliometric analysis of the volume of scientific literature relevant to the ecosystems and services of interest, and (4) evaluating an integrated analysis of importance, value, and availability of scientific information. This analysis led us to focus on two research priorities, seagrass-habitat functions as support for fishery production, and wetlands as regulators of water quality.     

Near-term forecasts of stream temperature using deep learning and data assimilation in support of management decisions

Deep learning (DL) models are increasingly used to make accurate hindcasts of management-relevant variables, but they are less commonly used in forecasting applications. Data assimilation (DA) can be used for forecasts to leverage real-time observations, where the difference between model predictions and observations today is used to adjust the model to make better predictions tomorrow. In this use case, we developed a process-guided DL and DA approach to make 7-day probabilistic forecasts of daily maximum water temperature in the Delaware River Basin in support of water management decisions. Our modeling system produced forecasts of daily maximum water temperature with an average root mean squared error (RMSE) from 1.1 to 1.4°C for 1-day-ahead and 1.4 to 1.9°C for 7-day-ahead forecasts across all sites. The DA algorithm marginally improved forecast performance when compared with forecasts produced using the process-guided DL model alone (0%–14% lower RMSE with the DA algorithm). Across all sites and lead times, 65%–82% of observations were within 90% forecast confidence intervals, which allowed managers to anticipate probability of exceedances of ecologically relevant thresholds and aid in decisions about releasing reservoir water downstream. The flexibility of DL models shows promise for forecasting other important environmental variables and aid in decision-making.     

Health and population-dependent effects of ocean acidification on the marine isopod Idotea balthica

Three populations of the grazing isopod Idotea balthica were exposed to high CO₂ treatment for a period of 20 days to investigate the effect of ocean acidification (OA) on animal health and immunocompetence. The results of the populations from more saline habitats were comparable and showed a 60–80 % decrease in immune response as a result of the high CO₂ treatment. Analysis of protein carbonyls showed no treatment effect, indicating that short-term OA does not increase oxidative protein damage. Meanwhile, the third tested population from the lower saline Baltic Sea had higher background protein carbonyl levels. Ocean acidification in addition to this resulted in 100 % mortality. The results of this study show that OA reduced immunocompetence of this marine isopod. In addition, populations and individuals in poor health are potentially at greater risk to succumb under OA.     

Gulf War agents trigger discrete transcriptional changes in human neuronal cells

Reports on Gulf War illness (GWI) implicated the use of the pesticide permethrin (PER), and the insect repellent N,N-diethyl-m-toluamide (DEET), in its etiology, as well as pyridostigmine bromide (PB), which was given as a prophylactic treatment against nerve agent exposure. Using Affymetrix microarrays the genomic response of human neuronal SHSY-5Y cells to 10 days of exposure to these agents was characterized and profiles of gene modulation unique to each treatment were demonstrated. In particular, a significantly greater impact of PER was observed compared to the other treatments. The Ingenuity Pathway Analysis knowledgebase was used to analyze the genomic datasets and attribute functional consequences to the effects of related genes, which were significantly up- or down-regulated in response to different treatments. Canonical pathways shown to be significantly modulated at the genomic level in response to exposure included cellular mechanisms, which might contribute to the clinical presentation in GWI patients and thus be targeted for further investigation as potential targets for therapeutic intervention.     

The Brown Trout Population at Loch Fleet Eight Years After Liming

Abstract

At the start of the Loch Fleet Project in 1984, the Loch and the upper 7 km of its efferent stream were found to be devoid of trout (Salmo trutta) as a result of acidification. Following the liming treatments applied to the catchment, from 1986 the formerly toxic water quality conditions (pH ～ 4.5, calcium ～ 1 mgl^?1, elevated aluminium and heavy metal levels) were eliminated, and trout were reintroduced on two occasions, in 1987 and 1988. A total of 520 fish were stocked, at a combined density equivalent to 5.5 kg ha^?1. Surveys of the loch and stream populations were carried out annually until 1993 to monitor their development, using a range of techniques, including electrofishing, gill-netting, seine-netting, spawner trapping and mark-release recapture methods. Length and scale- analysis were used to investigate fish growth.

The trout population in Loch Fleet expanded rapidly as a result of natural spawning in the loch's main feeder stream, augmented by the use of an artificial spawning bed which was constructed at the loch outlet in 1990. in mid-1983 the stock density, estimated by mark-recapture census methods, had increased to 24.9 kg ha^?1. Poor recruitment in the years 1991–93, however, reduced the rate of expansion and resulted in a population comprising mainly older individuals. the poor recruitment in these years was not fully explained but was not caused by water quality and was most likely a result of fry washout by spring spates.

Fish growth rates were high initially and were estimated on the basis of the Elliott trout growth model to be optimal for the prevailing water temperature regime of the loch. By 1991, growth rates had fallen, probably as a result of competition for food, but showed signs of recovery towards the end of the study period in 1993, following the period of lower population densities of young fish.

Trout rapidly repopulated the loch's outlet stream after 1987 but have remained sparse and have shown no signs of spawning within most of the stream. Water analyses have shown that the liming of the Loch Fleet catchment has minimal impact on downstream waters when flows are high, so that potentially toxic acid episodes have not been prevented.     

Offspring sex ratios reflect lack of repayment by auxiliary males in a cooperatively breeding passerine

The repayment hypothesis posits that primary sex ratios in cooperative species should be biased towards the helping sex because these offspring “repay” a portion of their cost through helping behavior and therefore are less expensive to produce. However, many cooperatively breeding birds and mammals do not show the predicted bias in the primary sex ratio. Recent theoretical work has suggested that the repayment hypothesis should only hold when females gain a large fitness advantage from the presence of auxiliary adults in the group. When auxiliaries provide little or no fitness advantage, competition between relatives should lead to sex ratios biased towards the dispersing (non-helping) sex. We examined the benefits auxiliaries provide to females and corresponding offspring sex ratios in the red-backed fairy-wren (Malurus melanocephalus), a cooperatively breeding Australian bird with male auxiliary helpers. We found that auxiliaries provide little or no benefit to female reproductive success or survival. As predicted, the population primary sex ratio was biased towards daughters, the dispersing sex, and females with auxiliaries produced female-biased broods whereas females without auxiliaries produced unbiased broods. Moreover, offspring sex ratios were more strongly biased toward females in years when auxiliaries were more common in the population. These results suggest that offspring sex ratios are associated with competition among the non-dispersing sex in this species, and also that females may use cues to assess local breeding opportunities for their offspring.     

Experimental investigation of hydrogen–air deflagrations and detonations in semi-confined flat layers

This paper presents results of an experimental investigation on the deflagration and deflagration-to-detonation transition (DDT) in an obstructed (blockage ratio BR = 50%), semi-confined flat layer filled with uniform hydrogen–air mixtures. The effect of mixture reactivity depending on flat layer thickness and its width is studied to evaluate the critical conditions for sonic flame propagation and the possibility for detonation onset. The experiments were performed in a transparent, rectangular channel with a length of 2.5 m. The flat layer thickness was varied from 0.06 to 0.24 m and the experiments were performed for different channel widths of 0.3, 0.6 and 0.9 m. The experimental results show flame velocity vs. hydrogen concentration for different thicknesses and widths of the semi-confined flat layer. Three different flame propagation regimes were observed: slow subsonic flame (M << 1), sonic deflagration (M ～ 1) and detonation (M >> 1). It is shown that flame acceleration (FA) to sonic speed is independent of the width of the flat layer. The critical expansion ratio for effective flame acceleration to sonic speed was found to be linearly dependent on the reciprocal layer thickness.     

An Application of a Modified Ecological Footprint Method and Structural Path Analysis in a Comparative Institutional Study

This paper presents an application of a modified ecological footprint method, using a regional, disturbance-based approach. In contrast to conventional institutional ecological footprint calculations, energy and land use resulting from all upstream production processes are explored by employing an input-output framework. Ecological footprints are calculated for two research institutions: the School of Physics (SoP) at the University of Sydney, and the Sustainable Ecosystems (CSE) Department of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation. These are broken down further in terms of land disturbance and greenhouse gas emissions, and as a function of production layer. To enable the use of the results in policy formulation, the ecological footprints are decomposed into detailed contributing paths, which are ranked according to their importance, using structural path analysis. The paper demonstrates that a considerable proportion of impacts occur upstream in industrial production. Thus a significant result of the study is the weight of obscure paths in the total footprints and, therefore, the importance of conducting an holistic assessment in order to ensure all upstream contributions are captured in the final impact of the institution.     

Tasmanian landowner preferences for conservation incentive programs: a latent class approach

An empirical model of landowners' conservation incentive program choice is developed in which information about landowners' socio-economic and property characteristics and their attitudes, is combined with incentive program attributes. In a Choice survey landowners were presented with the choice of two incentive programs modelled as 'bundles of attributes' mimicking a voluntary choice scenario. Landowner behaviour and decision and the type of conditions and regulations they preferred were analyzed. Based on choice survey data, landowner heterogeneity was accounted for using a latent class approach to estimate the preference parameters. Three latent classes of landowners with different attitudes to the role and outcome of establishing conservation reserves on private land were identified: multi-objective owners; environment owners; and production owners. Only a small proportion of landowners, mostly environment owners, would voluntarily join a program. Although compensation funding contributed to voluntary program choice for multi-objective owners and environment owners, welfare losses were around 4000 AUD per hectare, which is less than the average agricultural land value in Tasmania. Landowners for whom compensation funding contributed to voluntary program choice were also most likely to set aside land for conservation without payment. This raises the possibility that the government's compensation expenditure could potentially be either reduced or re-allocated to landowners who will not voluntarily take conservation action. Increasing participation in conservation incentive programs and minimizing the welfare losses associated with meeting conservation targets may be best achieved by offering programs that allow flexibility in terms of legal arrangements and other program attributes.