The false alarm/surprise trade-off in weather warnings systems: an expected utility theory perspective

Environment Systems and Decisions - Early warning systems for weather events are becoming widespread as technological capacities develop. For warnings to be effective, they must allow enough lead...     

Harnessing place attachment for local climate mitigation? Hypothesising connections between broadening representations of place and readiness for change

Public engagement in local environmental planning and decision-making is often advocated on various grounds, both instrumental and normative. Yet in developed countries in the context of renewable energy infrastructure deployment, place attachment, place identity and place-protective action continue to be implicated in public objection. We set out an interdisciplinary change readiness hypothesis of specifically how local participatory scenario or visioning processes that include climate mitigation measures may support the mobilisation of place attachment for climate mitigation, including renewable energy deployment. We hypothesise that local visioning may support movement towards change readiness by helping to anchor unfamiliar social representations of low carbon energy infrastructure and new patterns of urban form in existing, more positive representations of localities and associated attachments. To this end, seeking ways to modify threat perceptions relating to climate change and renewable energy infrastructure is advocated as a key direction for study.     

Screening for Selected Human Pharmaceuticals and Cocaine in the Urban Streams of Manaus,Amazonas, Brazil

Pharmaceuticals and illicit drugs are contaminants that are generally ubiquitous in wastewater treatment plant effluents with their release into the environment being well understood in North America, Europe, and Asia. There is, however, less information on the release of human pharmaceuticals and illicit drugs from regions undergoing rapid land use, economical, and social changes, such as Brazil. This encompasses many areas in the tropical zone where releases of emerging contaminants may impact pristine, bio‐diversity rich ecosystems. In this study, the occurrence of human pharmaceuticals and the illicit drug cocaine was determined in the Rio Negro and two of its tributaries that receive large amounts of untreated sewage, the Igarapé Mindu and the Igarapé do 40, passing through the city of Manaus, Brazil. In addition to cocaine and its metabolite, benzoylecognine, propranolol, diclofenac, amitriptyline, carbamazepine, carbamazepine‐epoxide, citalopram, metoprolol, carisoprolol, and sertraline were all detected in two urban tributaries at low ng/l concentrations similar to those typically found in urban surface waters. Concentrations in the Rio Negro were typically lower than detection limits due to the large level of dilution, although traces of a range of pharmaceuticals were detected in the Rio Negro in proximity of the confluence of the urban streams. The data represent new information on the emissions of pharmaceuticals from a newly industrialized region of Brazil.     

Diffusional mass transfer coefficient at the water–sediment interface for wind-induced flow in very shallow lagoons

Very shallow lagoons that are a few centimeters deep are common in the arid Andes of Northern Chile, Argentina, Bolivia and Perú. The dynamics of these lagoons are dominated by the water–sediment interface (WSI) and strong afternoon winds. Although many studies have examined the diffusional mass transfer coefficients (k _t ) of open channel flows, estimates for wind-induced flows are still unknown. The aim of this article is to propose and validate an analytical expression for computing k _t at the WSI for wind-induced flow. The laboratory measurements were conducted in a wind tunnel with a water tank of variable depth located at its downwind end. Natural muddy sediments were placed in the middle of the tank so that the dissolved oxygen (DO) was consumed in the sediments. The diffusional mass transfer coefficient that characterizes the DO uptake in the sediment was obtained from DO micro-profiles measured with an OX-25 Unisense microelectrode. Water velocity profiles were measured with a 2D side-view Sontek acoustic doppler velocimetry (ADV), and the wind shear velocity was computed based on wind velocity profiles that were measured with an Extech hot-wire anemometer. A total of 16 experiments were conducted with different water depths and wind shear stresses. The constants required by the model were determined from these experiments, and the analytical expression was successfully validated by the laboratory observations. The analytical expression obtained for computing k _t was also validated with field observations that were conducted in October, 2012, in Salar del Huasco, Northern Chile (20.274° S, 68.883° W, 3800 m above sea level). The comparison between the observed and predicted values of k _t provides a determination coefficient of r ² = 0.48 and a p value < 0.01. The results show that the value of k _t for wind-induced flow is proportional to the wind shear velocity and the inverse of the Reynolds number of the wind-induced current.     

Efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling for hierarchical hidden Markov models

Traditional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling of hidden Markov models (HMMs) involves latent states underlying an imperfect observation process, and generates posterior samples for top-level parameters concurrently with nuisance latent variables. When potentially many HMMs are embedded within a hierarchical model, this can result in prohibitively long MCMC runtimes. We study combinations of existing methods, which are shown to vastly improve computational efficiency for these hierarchical models while maintaining the modeling flexibility provided by embedded HMMs. The methods include discrete filtering of the HMM likelihood to remove latent states, reduced data representations, and a novel procedure for dynamic block sampling of posterior dimensions. The first two methods have been used in isolation in existing application-specific software, but are not generally available for incorporation in arbitrary model structures. Using the NIMBLE package for R, we develop and test combined computational approaches using three examples from ecological capture–recapture, although our methods are generally applicable to any embedded discrete HMMs. These combinations provide several orders of magnitude improvement in MCMC sampling efficiency, defined as the rate of generating effectively independent posterior samples. In addition to being computationally significant for this class of hierarchical models, this result underscores the potential for vast improvements to MCMC sampling efficiency which can result from combinations of known algorithms.     

Use of non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) in presence of change-points to analyze drought periods: a case study in Brazil

Rain precipitation in the last years has been very atypical in different regions of the world, possibly, due to climate changes. We analyze Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) measures (1, 3, 6 and 12-month timescales) for a large city in Brazil: Campinas located in the southeast region of Brazil, São Paulo State, ranging from January 01, 1947 to May 01, 2011. A Bayesian analysis of non-homogeneous Poisson processes in presence or not of change-points is developed using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods in the data analysis. We consider a special class of models: the power law process. We also discuss some discrimination methods for the choice of the better model to be used for the rain precipitation data.     

Accessibility and trust: the two dimensions of consumers’ perception on sustainable purchase intention

The aim of this article is to shed new light on which dimensions compose sustainable purchase intention (SPI) with the purpose of understanding what moves consumers to a potentially more sustainable behaviour. Even though several studies have researched which factors influence consumer’s intention to buy in a more sustainable way, no comparable research in consumer behaviour was found studying these dimensions in a triple bottom line perspective (profit, people, and planet) that could also provide future corporate and academic applications. Therefore, this article proposes a new construct – Consumers’ Perception on SPI, defined using the C-OAR-SE procedure and measured using exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis using two different samples. In-depth interviews and online survey to actual consumers of sustainable products were undertaken in partnership with a sustainable project using its database, guaranteeing that real consumers’ perceptions were gathered for this study. The construct is proposed with two dimensions (measured by nine items): Accessibility (including facets such as product lower pricing, availability in stores, and being sold within a convenient proximity to home) and Trust (including consumers needs such as: to get to know and trust products through understanding the labels; to have had good experiences in the past or simply to have new trial opportunities). Theoretical and practical implications of the findings are also discussed.     

纳米铜颗粒的种间毒性关系

纳米颗粒的种间毒性关系尚无明确结论,因此很难判断纳米颗粒对未进行毒性测试的物种的风险如何。本文作者将5种水蚤(Daphnia magna, Daphnia pulex, Daphnia galeata, Ceriodaphnia dubia, Chydorus sphaericus)暴露于4种不同粒径的纳米铜颗粒(CuNPs)和1种亚微米铜颗粒的悬浊液中,考察物种的形态特征与CuNPs急性毒性的关系。结果显示,杆状的CuNPs比球状的CuNPs毒性更低。纳米铜颗粒与溶出铜离子均对CuNPs的毒性有贡献,其中,当新生蚤的体长、体表面积和身体体积更小时,5种悬浊液中颗粒的毒性更大。5种蚤的身体体积与5种CuNPs的毒性显著相关(r_adj²>0.51, p < 0.001),78-nm CuNPs与蚤身体体积的相关性最好 (r_adj²?=?0.95, p < 0.001)。这个研究可以为纳米颗粒对有相似外形特征的物种进行毒性种间外推提供线索。
精选自Lan Song, Martina G. Vijver, Geert R. de Snoo and Willie J.G.M. Peijnenburg. Assessing toxicity of copper nanoparticles across five cladoceran species. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: Volume 34, Issue 8, pages 1744–1750, August 2015. DOI: 10.1002/etc.3000
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/etc.3000/full