Quantifying Plant Population Persistence in Human-Dominated Landscapes

Abstract:  We assessed population performance of rare plants across a gradient from rural to urban landscapes and evaluated 2 hypotheses central to strategic conservation planning: (1) population performance declines with increasing human dominance and (2) small populations perform poorly relative to larger ones. Assessing these hypotheses is critical to strategic conservation planning. The current conservation paradigm adheres to the well-established ecology theory that small isolated populations, particularly those in human-dominated landscapes, are the least likely to succeed over the long term. Consequently, conservation planning has strongly favored large, remote targets for protection. This shift in conservation toward ecosystem-based programs and protection of populations within large, remote systems has been at the expense of protection of the rarest of the rare species, the dominant paradigm for conservation driven by the endangered species act. Yet, avoiding conservation of small populations appears to be based more on theoretical understanding and expert opinion than empiricism. We used Natural Heritage data from California in an assessment of population performance of rare plants across a landscape with an urban-rural gradient. Population performance did not decrease in urban settings or for populations that were initially small. Our results are consistent with a pattern of few species extinctions within these landscapes over the past several decades. We conclude that these populations within compromised landscapes can contribute to overall biodiversity conservation. We further argue that conservation planning for biodiversity preservation should allocate relatively more resources to protecting urban-associated plant taxa because they may provide conservation benefit beyond simply protecting isolated populations; they may be useful in building social interest in conservation.     

Conservation Biology of Caecilian Amphibians

Abstract:  Most of the available data on declining populations of amphibians pertain to frogs and, to a lesser extent, salamanders. In keeping with their generally less understood biology, the population trends and conservation status of caecilian amphibians (Gymnophiona) are also much less known. We reviewed reports of threats to and declines of populations of caecilians. Despite a lack of field-study details (e.g., localities, dates, and sampling methods) and quantitative data, there are several recent reports of threats to and declines and extinctions of caecilians. A range of causal explanations (habitat loss, pollution, chytridiomycosis, and scientific collecting) for these perceived declines have been proposed but little or no associated evidence has been given. Although caecilians are often considered rare and thought to require pristine habitat, published, quantitative data demonstrate that at least some species can occur in high abundance in disturbed, synanthropic environments. Few estimates of caecilian population parameters have been made and very few field methods have been tested, so the assumed rarity of any taxa remains inadequately demonstrated. Distribution and taxonomic data are also inadequate. Because they are generally poorly known and often cryptic, caecilians can be overlooked in standard faunal surveys, meaning that lack of opportunistic collection over several years might not represent evidence of decline. The conservation status of most species must be considered data deficient. More precise assessments will require a substantial increase in all areas of caecilian research, especially those involving new fieldwork. Future reports of caecilian conservation biology need to be explicit and more quantitative.     

Incorporating Collateral Data in Conservation Biology

Abstract:  Conservation biologists often need to set ecological modeling assumptions or estimate parameters from sparse data. In some cases this problem can be addressed by incorporating data from closely related species or from the same species at different sites (i.e., collateral data). Currently no structured methods exist for incorporating such information. An analogous problem in Actuarial science is to set premium rates in situations with little direct data on claim frequency or size. The rates are estimated using actuarial credibility theory, which incorporates collateral data with the direct data. actuarial credibility theory combined with the actuarial control cycle financial management process also provides an adaptive mechanism for updating assumptions. This theory may have some utility for ecologists wanting to incorporate collateral data in an adaptive management framework, a companion to approaches such as Bayesian updating. We describe the historical development of actuarial credibility theory from early ad hoc methods to empirical Bayes approaches. We explore some of the theory's strengths, such as relative simple formulae for incorporation collateral data, and we explore some of the theory's weaknesses, such as the use of the best linear approximation to the Bayes estimate. We illustrate potential applications of the theory using an example on the mortality rate of the Powerful Owl (  Ninox strenua ).     

Establishing Representative No-Take Areas in the Great Barrier Reef: Large-Scale Implementation of Theory on Marine Protected Areas

Abstract:  The Great Barrier Reef Marine Park, an area almost the size of Japan, has a new network of no-take areas that significantly improves the protection of biodiversity. The new marine park zoning implements, in a quantitative manner, many of the theoretical design principles discussed in the literature. For example, the new network of no-take areas has at least 20% protection per "bioregion," minimum levels of protection for all known habitats and special or unique features, and minimum sizes for no-take areas of at least 10 or 20 km across at the smallest diameter. Overall, more than 33% of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park is now in no-take areas (previously 4.5%). The steps taken leading to this outcome were to clarify to the interested public why the existing level of protection was inadequate; detail the conservation objectives of establishing new no-take areas; work with relevant and independent experts to define, and contribute to, the best scientific process to deliver on the objectives; describe the biodiversity (e.g., map bioregions); define operational principles needed to achieve the objectives; invite community input on all of the above; gather and layer the data gathered in round-table discussions; report the degree of achievement of principles for various options of no-take areas; and determine how to address negative impacts. Some of the key success factors in this case have global relevance and include focusing initial communication on the problem to be addressed; applying the precautionary principle; using independent experts; facilitating input to decision making; conducting extensive and participatory consultation; having an existing marine park that encompassed much of the ecosystem; having legislative power under federal law; developing high-level support; ensuring agency priority and ownership; and being able to address the issue of displaced fishers.     

Designing Systematic Conservation Assessments that Promote Effective Implementation: Best Practice from South Africa

Abstract:  Systematic conservation assessment and conservation planning are two distinct fields of conservation science often confused as one and the same. Systematic conservation assessment is the technical, often computer-based, identification of priority areas for conservation. Conservation planning is composed of a systematic conservation assessment coupled with processes for development of an implementation strategy and stakeholder collaboration. The peer-reviewed conservation biology literature abounds with studies analyzing the performance of assessments (e.g., area-selection techniques). This information alone, however, can never deliver effective conservation action; it informs conservation planning. Examples of how to translate systematic assessment outputs into knowledge and then use them for "doing" conservation are rare. South Africa has received generous international and domestic funding for regional conservation planning since the mid-1990s. We reviewed eight South African conservation planning processes and identified key ingredients of best practice for undertaking systematic conservation assessments in a way that facilitates implementing conservation action. These key ingredients include the design of conservation planning processes, skills for conservation assessment teams, collaboration with stakeholders, and interpretation and mainstreaming of products (e.g., maps) for stakeholders. Social learning institutions are critical to the successful operationalization of assessments within broader conservation planning processes and should include not only conservation planners but also diverse interest groups, including rural landowners, politicians, and government employees.     

Risk-Based Viable Population Monitoring

Abstract:  We describe risk-based viable population monitoring, in which the monitoring indicator is a yearly prediction of the probability that, within a given timeframe, the population abundance will decline below a prespecified level. Common abundance-based monitoring strategies usually have low power to detect declines in threatened and endangered species and are largely reactive to declines. Comparisons of the population's estimated risk of decline over time will help determine status in a more defensible manner than current monitoring methods. Monitoring risk is a more proactive approach; critical changes in the population's status are more likely to be demonstrated before a devastating decline than with abundance-based monitoring methods. In this framework, recovery is defined not as a single evaluation of long-term viability but as maintaining low risk of decline for the next several generations. Effects of errors in risk prediction techniques are mitigated through shorter prediction intervals, setting threshold abundances near current abundance, and explicitly incorporating uncertainty in risk estimates. Viable population monitoring also intrinsically adjusts monitoring effort relative to the population's true status and exhibits considerable robustness to model misspecification. We present simulations showing that risk predictions made with a simple exponential growth model can be effective monitoring indicators for population dynamics ranging from random walk to density dependence with stable, decreasing, or increasing equilibrium. In analyses of time-series data for five species, risk-based monitoring warned of future declines and demonstrated secure status more effectively than statistical tests for trend.     

Role of Crab Herbivory in Die-Off of New England Salt Marshes

Abstract:  Die-offs of cordgrass are pervasive throughout western Atlantic salt marshes, yet understanding of the mechanisms precipitating these events is limited. We tested whether herbivory by the native crab , Sesarma reticulatum , is generating die-offs of cordgrass that are currently occurring on Cape Cod, Massachusetts (U.S.A.), by manipulating crab access to cordgrass transplanted into die-off areas and healthy vegetation. We surveyed 12 Cape Cod marshes to investigate whether the extent of cordgrass die-off on creek banks, where die-offs are concentrated, was related to local Sesarma grazing intensity and crab density. We then used archived aerial images to examine whether creek bank die-off areas have expanded over the past 2 decades and tested the hypothesis that release from predation, leading to elevated Sesarma densities, is triggering cordgrass die-offs by tethering crabs where die-offs are pervasive and where die-offs have not yet been reported. Intensity of crab grazing on transplanted cordgrass was an order of magnitude higher in die-off areas than in adjacent vegetation. Surveys revealed that Sesarma herbivory has denuded nearly half the creek banks in Cape Cod marshes, and differences in crab-grazing intensity among marshes explained >80% of variation in the extent of the die-offs. Moreover, the rate of die-off expansion and area of marsh affected have more than doubled since 2000. Crab-tethering experiments suggest that release from predation has triggered elevated crab densities that are driving these die-offs, indicating that disruption of predator–prey interactions may be generating the collapse of marsh ecosystems previously thought to be exclusively under bottom-up control .