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21.
Application of a checklist for quality assistance in environmental modelling to an energy model 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
James Risbey Jeroen van der Sluijs Penny Kloprogge Jerry Ravetz Silvio Funtowicz Serafin Corral Quintana 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2005,10(1):63-79
Large, complex energy models present considerable challenges to develop and test. Uncertainty assessments of such models provide only partial guidance on the quality of the results. We have developed a model quality assistance checklist to aid in this purpose. The model checklist provides diagnostic output in the form of a set of pitfalls for the model application. The checklist is applied here to an energy model for the problem of assessing energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. Use of the checklist suggests that results on this issue are contingent on a number of assumptions that are highly value-laden. When these assumptions are held fixed, the model is deemed capable of producing moderately robust results of relevance to climate policy over the longer term. Checklist responses also indicate that a number of details critical to policy choices or outcomes on this issue are not captured in the model, and model results should therefore be supplemented with alternative analyses. 相似文献
22.
A. Haurie J.J.E. Kübler A. Clappier H. van den Bergh 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2004,9(1):1-12
A method is proposed to build integrated models (also called Metamodels) aimed at quantifying the economic efficiency of air quality policies. This Metamodeling approach is based on the coupling of two complementary models, that operate at different scales in space and time, and which represent the economic and the physical and chemical processes, respectively. The joint consideration of the physico-chemical and techno-economic structure of the pollution control problems permits a comprehensive evaluation of air pollution abatement strategies. The motivating pollution control problems include urban-regional air quality management through efficient energy and traffic control policies. A pilot study, exploiting data collected in the Geneva canton (Switzerland), is used to demonstrate the potential of the approach. 相似文献
23.
Dr. Martin F. Price 《The Environmentalist》1995,15(4):272-280
Summary Mountain regions comprise one-fifth of the world's land surface. They are home to a tenth and important in the lives of half of humankind. Yet mountains are often regarded as physically, politically and economically marginal; their importance has only recently been globally recognized. The potential impacts of climate change in mountain regions will vary considerably between different types of regions. These are briefly described, as an introduction to an evaluation of the potential impacts with regard to agriculture, forestry, water resources, tourism, energy, transport and health. It is concluded that climate change cannot be considered a marginal issue and that the ability of mountain and downstream people to adapt and respond in the long term will require attention to the maintenance and use of local knowledge and cooperative social networks, as well as considerable scientific research.Dr Martin Price obtained his Ph.D from the University of Colorado at Boulder, following a first degree at the University of Sheffield and an MSc from the University of Calgary, Canada. He is currently the Programme Leader for the Mountain Regions Programme at the Environmental Change Unit at the University of Oxford. This paper was presented at the Global Forum '94 Academic Conference and it represents a revision of an article by the author in Beniston (1994). 相似文献
24.
Martin Guard Yunus D.Mgaya 《Ambio-人类环境杂志》2002,31(7):528-536
2000年4月期间坦桑尼亚霞水母章鱼(1849)个体渔业的初步结果到2001年6月才被提供.对在坦噶、马菲亚岛和姆特瓦拉三地的2546个单个渔获物和15 473个样品进行了分析. 相似文献
25.
Social insects use complex chemical communication systems to govern many aspects of their life. We studied chemical changes in Dufours gland secretions associated with ovary development in several genotypes of honeybees. We found that C28–C38 esters were associated only with cavity nesting honeybee queens, while the alcohol eicosenol was associated only with their non-laying workers. In contrast, both egg-laying anarchistic workers and all parasitic Cape workers from queenright colonies showed the typical queen pattern (i.e. esters present and eicosenol absent), while egg-laying wild-type and anarchistic workers in queenless colonies showed an intermediate pattern, producing both esters and eicosenol but at intermediate levels. Furthermore, neither esters nor eicosenol were found in aerial nesting honeybee species. Both esters and eicosenol are biosynthetically similar compounds since both are recognizable products of fatty acid biosynthesis. Therefore, we propose that in honeybees the biosynthesis of esters and eicosenol in the Dufours gland is caste-regulated and this pathway has been conserved over evolutionary time. 相似文献
26.
27.
西印度洋(WIO)地区以其迷人的海岸带、丰富的海洋生物多样性以及富饶的海洋和海岸带资源而著称.但是地处WIO地区的许多国家像肯尼亚、莫桑比克、索马里、南非、坦桑尼亚、科摩罗、马达加斯加、毛里求斯、留尼旺、塞舌尔等却极度贫困,特别是近二三十年以来,该地区的环境退化现象以及自然资源和生物多样性的下降越来越明显. 相似文献
28.
Dr. R. J. A. Wanders R. B. H. Schutgens H. van den Bosch J. M. Tager W. J. Kleijer 《黑龙江环境通报》1991,11(4):253-261
In recent years, an increasing number of inherited diseases in man have been recognized in which there is an impairment in the peroxisomal β-oxidation of very-long-chain fatty acids. In general, these disorders are associated with severe neurological and physical abnormalities and death within the first years of life. In this paper we describe our experience with regard to the prenatal diagnosis of a number of different inborn errors of peroxisomal β-oxidation. Eleven pregnancies at risk were monitored by measuring very-long-chain fatty acid levels as well as very-long-chain fatty acid β-oxidation in cultured chorionic villous fibroblasts and/or amniotic fluid cells. Five affected fetuses were identified. It is concluded that prenatal diagnosis in this group of diseases can be done reliably using cultured chorionic villous fibroblasts or amniotic fluid cells. 相似文献
29.
M. Blunck W. -D. Busse G. Meister E. Möller A. Mullen L. A. A. van Rooijen 《Die Naturwissenschaften》1989,76(3):96-98
Online searching in publically available patent files opens up interesting possibilities to provide a rapid response to critical questions. A computerized analysis of all patents of leading German pharmaceutical companies over the last decade in important indication areas is described. Supported by subsequent manual processing of individual patents it is shown that duplicate experiments on animals practically never occur. 相似文献
30.
The honeybee compound eye is equipped with ultraviolet, blue, and green receptors, which form the physiological basis of a
trichromatic color vision system. We studied the distribution of the spectral receptors by localizing the three mRNAs encoding
the opsins of the ultraviolet-, blue- and green-absorbing visual pigments. The expression patterns of the three opsin mRNAs
demonstrated that three distinct types ommatidia exist, refuting the common assumption that the ommatidia composing the bee
compound eye contain identical sets of spectral receptors. We found that type I ommatidia contain one ultraviolet and one
blue receptor, type II ommatidia contain two ultraviolet receptors, and type III ommatidia have two blue receptors. All the
three ommatidial types contain six green receptors. The ommatidia appear to be distributed rather randomly over the retina.
The ratio of type I, II, and III ommatidia was about 44:46:10. Type III ommatidia appeared to be slightly more frequent (18%)
in the anterior part of the ventral region of the eye. Retinal heterogeneity and ommatidial randomness, first clearly demonstrated
in butterflies, seems to be a common design principle of the eyes of insects. 相似文献