A Bayesian network approach to modelling land-use decisions under environmental policy incentives in the Brazilian Amazon

ABSTRACT

Deforestation driven by agricultural expansion is a major threat to the biodiversity of the Amazon Basin. Modelling how deforestation responds to environmental policy implementation has thus become a policy relevant scientific undertaking. However, empirical parameterization of land-use/cover change (LUCC) models is challenging due to the high complexity and uncertainty of land-use decisions. Bayesian Network (BN) modelling provides an effective framework to integrate various data sources including expert knowledge. In this study, we integrate remote sensing products with data from farm-household surveys and a decision game to model LUCC at the BR-163, in Brazil. Our ‘business as usual’ scenario indicates cumulative forest cover loss in the study region of 8,000 km² between 2014 and 2030, whereas ‘intensified law-enforcement’ would reduce cumulative deforestation to 1,600 km² over the same time interval. Our findings underline the importance of conservation law enforcement in modulating the impact of agricultural market incentives on land cover change.     

A case study of molinate application in a Portuguese rice field: herbicide dissipation and proposal of a clean-up methodology

This study was designed to monitor molinate losses in surface and underground waters during Ordram application in a rice field situated in central Portugal. Water samples were collected from different sites, before, during and about one month and a half after Ordram application. Molinate quantification was based on a solid-phase microextraction (SPME) method followed by gas chromatography with flame photometric detector (GC-FPD) analysis, and led to the conclusion that the herbicide was dissipated in the environment, reaching levels as high as 3.9 microgl(-1) in underground water and 15.8 microgl(-1) in the river receiving tail waters. The feasibility of the application of treatment methodologies based on adsorption or biodegradation as processes to remove molinate from real-world waters was assessed. These methods seem suitable to reduce molinate concentrations to values in the range of the legally recommended limits (<0.5 microgl(-1)).     

Convergent-flow tracer tests in heterogeneous media: combined experimental-numerical analysis for determination of equivalent transport parameters

In modeling transport within naturally heterogeneous aquifers, it is usually assumed that the transport equations valid at local scales can also be applied at larger scales. At larger scales, the heterogeneous domain is represented by an equivalent homogeneous medium. Convergent-flow tracer tests constitute one of the most frequently used field tests to estimate effective input parameters of equivalent homogeneous aquifers. Traditionally, statistical approaches applied to groundwater flow and solute transport have provided tools to estimate these equivalent parameters. These approaches are based on a number of simplifications including the assumption that the point transmissivity values follow a multilog-normal random function. Several investigators have found that this assumption may not be valid in many field cases. In order to study the applicability of the equivalent homogeneous formulation in a nontraditional stochastic field, a number of experimental and numerical studies were conducted. The results are used to determine the apparent values of porosity and dispersivity that would be obtained if convergent-flow tracer tests were conducted in a deterministically generated heterogeneous transmissivity field displaying anisotropy in the correlation structure. It is shown that in this particular heterogeneous media, apparent porosity strongly depends on connectivity rather than on transmissivity. This dependence on connectivity questions the theoretical results obtained in continuum equivalent fields to estimate effective porosity.     

Distribution of endocrine disruptors in the Llobregat River basin (Catalonia, NE Spain)

The Llobregat basin is a Mediterranean fluvial system with major agricultural, urban and industrial impacts. We combined chemical quantification by liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry with electrospray interface (LC-ESI-MS) and the recombinant yeast assay (RYA) assays to estimate the loads of endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs) along the basin. Chemical analysis revealed maximum concentrations (at μg l⁻¹ level) of alkylphenols at the lower course of the Llobregat River, which correlated with high levels of estrogenic activity detected by RYA. Analysis by RYA and LC-ESI-MS of influent and effluent waters from four sewage treatment plants (STP) discharging into the basin showed the removal of 80–95% of EDCs by STP treatment. Chemical analysis data and RYA data showed a quasi-linear correlation, demonstrating the complementariness of both methods. Our data suggest that the concentrations of the analysed compounds were enough to explain the total estrogenicity of water and STP samples from the Llobregat basin.     

Fire and explosion hazards during filling/emptying of tanks

Loading and unloading operations produce 8% of all accidents which occur in process plants and in the transportation of hazardous materials. A survey of 738 accidents was performed, allowing the identification of the accident type distribution and of their cause. Some considerations on flammable mixtures are also presented, and the procedures to avoid these mixtures occurring when filling or emptying a tank are briefly discussed.     

Structural, morphological and genetic variability in Halophila stipulacea (Hydrocharitaceae) populations in the western Mediterranean

Halophila stipulacea (Forssk.) Ascher. is a dioecious seagrass that colonized the Mediterranean basin probably following the opening of the Suez Canal (1869). Natural meadows have been reported since the end of the last century on the eastern side of the basin and only recently along the northern coast of Sicily. In the present study we examined the morphological and genetic variability of two natural meadows located along the Sicilian coast (Vulcano Island and Oliveri-Tindari coastal lakes). In order to determine morphological and genetic polymorphism, samples were collected at different depths (5, 15 and 25 m depth at the Vulcano site) and positions (edge vs mid-bed) within the meadows. Statistically significant differences in phenotypic features were found between the factors “depth” and “position” within the same meadow and between the two localities. Genetic diversity was assessed using randomly amplified polymorphic DNA and found to be high. Deep and shallow stands of the Vulcano Island meadow clustered in different positions in the UPGMA tree. The shallow Vulcano stand was found to be closer to the shallow Oliveri-Tindari meadow than to the deeper stand from Vulcano. Mantel's test did not allow rejection of the null hypothesis of independence of morphological and molecular distance matrices. We conclude that (i) H. stipulacea shows high morphological and genetic polymorphism, (ii) environmental and/or ecological barriers exist between different depths, and (iii) trends of morphological and genetic variability may be influenced by different environmental and/or ecological factors. Received: 15 November 1998 / Accepted: 21 May 1999