Use of genetic algorithms to select input variables in decision tree models for the prediction of benthic macroinvertebrates

Predicting freshwater organisms based on machine learning is becoming more and more reliable due to the availability of appropriate datasets, advanced modelling techniques and the continuously increasing capacity of computers. A database consisting of measurements collected at 360 sampling sites in non-navigable watercourses in Flanders was applied to predict the absence/presence of benthic macroinvertebrate taxa by means of decision trees. The measured variables were a combination of physical–chemical (temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen concentration, conductivity, total organic carbon, Kjeldahl nitrogen and total phosphorus), structural (granulometric analysis of the sediment, width, depth and flow velocity of the river) and two ecotoxicological variables. The predictive power of decision trees was assessed on the basis of the number of Correctly Classified Instances (CCI). A genetic algorithm was introduced to compare the predictive power of different sets of input variables for the decision trees. The number of input variables was reduced from 15 to 2–8 variables without affecting the predictive power of the decision trees significantly. Furthermore, reducing the number of input variables allowed to ease the identification of general data trends.     

Vegetation phenology gradients along the west and east coasts of Greenland from 2001 to 2015

The objective of this paper is to characterize the spatiotemporal variations of vegetation phenology along latitudinal and altitudinal gradients in Greenland, and to examine local and regional climatic drivers. Time-series from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) were analyzed to obtain various phenological metrics for the period 2001–2015. MODIS-derived land surface temperatures were corrected for the sampling biases caused by cloud cover. Results indicate significant differences between West and East Greenland, in terms of both observed phenology during the study period, as well as the climatic response. The date of the start of season (SOS) was significantly earlier (24 days), length of season longer (25 days), and time-integrated NDVI higher in West Greenland. The sea ice concentration during May was found to have a significant effect on the date of the SOS only in West Greenland, with the strongest linkage detected in mid-western parts of Greenland.     

CO2SINK—From site characterisation and risk assessment to monitoring and verification: One year of operational experience with the field laboratory for CO2 storage at Ketzin, Germany

The CO₂SINK pilot project at Ketzin is aimed at a better understanding of geological CO₂ storage operation in a saline aquifer. The reservoir consists of fluvial deposits with average permeability ranging between 50 and 100 mDarcy. The main focus of CO₂SINK is developing and testing of monitoring and verification technologies. All wells, one for injection and two for observation, are equipped with smart casings (sensors behind casing, facing the rocks) containing a Distributed Temperature Sensing (DTS) and electrodes for Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT). The in-hole Gas Membrane Sensors (GMS) observed the arrival of tracers and CO₂ with high temporal resolution. Geophysical monitoring includes Moving Source Profiling (MSP), Vertical Seismic Profiling (VSP), crosshole, star and 4-D seismic experiments. Numerical models are benchmarked via the monitoring results indicating a sufficient match between observation and prediction, at least for the arrival of CO₂ at the first observation well. Downhole samples of brine showed changes in the fluid composition and biocenosis. First monitoring results indicate anisotropic flow of CO₂ coinciding with the “on-time” arrival of CO₂ at observation well one (Ktzi 200) and the later arrival at observation well two (Ktzi 202). A risk assessment was performed prior to the start of injection. After one year of operations about 18,000 t of CO₂ were injected safely.     

The application of a simplified method to map the aerobic acetate mineralization rates at the groundwater table of the Netherlands

A simplified method is used to assess the microbial activity of subsoils and soils across a broad geographic scale. Acetate was selected because it is a major intermediate in catabolic biochemical pathways. In order to get minimal disturbance, only a small amount of tritium labelled acetate and water is added to the subsoil material. After an incubation time, the subsoil material is separated from the water by centrifugation and the formed tritium labelled water is separated from the remaining acetate by evaporation. The data of 128 locations in the Netherlands were plotted in a soil map and were also compared with the depth, dry weight, electric conductivity, pH and nitrate concentration. The peat areas consisted of limed meadows with a high groundwater level whereas the sand areas often showed deeper groundwater levels and a lower pH. The subsoils at the groundwater table of the peat areas, which are in contact with soil air, showed a higher mineralization rate compared with the surface soils in our study. In contrast, the mineralization rate of the subsoil at the groundwater table of sandy soils showed on average a factor 30 lower rate. Nevertheless, the self purification capacity of the subsoil can be vital under weather conditions where the surface soil becomes less active.     

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in indoor air originating from sealants in contaminated and uncontaminated apartments within the same housing estate

Twenty-four congeners of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were measured in 83 air samples and 20 elastic sealants samples of apartments with PCB-containing sealants. In addition, PCBs were measured in 21 air samples from reference apartments located in an uncontaminated section of the same estate. The PCB_tot levels in the air of the contaminated section were 168-3843 ng m⁻³ (mean: 1030 ng m⁻³), while the mean levels in the reference apartments were 6.03 ng m⁻³. The sum of the 24 measured PCB congeners in sealants from the contaminated section was 187-221 680 mg kg⁻¹. Principal component analysis revealed four groups among the sealant samples with different congener compositions, only two of which were clearly similar to known PCB mixtures, while two were not. Significant correlations and intercorrelations were observed between the lower chlorinated congeners in air and sealant, e.g. for PCB 28_air and 28_seal (p = 0.04) and for PCB 28_air and 52_air, 52_seal. However, no correlation was observed between the lower chlorinated congeners and the sums of PCB (∑PCB₆ or ∑PCB₂₄) or the higher chlorinated congeners. Analysis of air concentrations in relation to questionnaire data indicated that the indoor air levels could be reduced by increased cleaning and airing frequencies.     

Transaction Costs Economics of Irreplaceability: <Emphasis Type="Italic">ex ante</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">ex post</Emphasis> Evaluation of Conservation Networks’ Vulnerability to Environmental Shocks

The theoretical concept, “asset specificity,” is applied to real data in the context of Danish nature conservation network planning in order to produce illustrative examples of an economic measure of the network’s vulnerability to exogenous shocks to the species composition. Three different measures of asset specificity are quantified from the shadow value of eliminating a key species from the individual grid cells. This represents a novel approach and a different interpretation of the term, as it is conventionally used as a qualitative indicator in the transaction cost economics literature. Apart from supplementing existing cost measures with an indicator of risk associated with investments in protected areas, this study demonstrates how the estimation and interpretation of various asset specificity measures for geographical areas may qualify policy makers’ choice of policy instrument in conservation planning. This differs from the more intuitive approach of basing policy instrument choice solely on the rarity of the species in a given area.