Human dietary intake of organochlorines from Baltic herring: implications of individual fish variability and fisheries management

This study examines the extent to which Finnish human dietary intake of organochlorines (PCDD/Fs and PCBs) originating from Northern Baltic herring can be influenced by fisheries management. This was investigated by estimation of human intake using versatile modeling tools (e.g., a herring population model and a bioenergetics model). We used a probabilistic approach to account for the variation in human intake of organochlorines originating from the variation among herring individuals. Our estimates were compared with present precautionary limits and recommendation for use. The results show that present consumption levels and frequencies of herring give a high probability of exceeding recommended intake limits of PCDD/Fs and PCBs. Furthermore, our results clearly demonstrate that in the risk management of dioxinlike organochlorines, regulating fishing (in this case increasing fishing pressure) is a far less effective way to decrease the risk than regulating the consumption of herring. Increased fishing would only slightly decrease organochlorine concentrations of herring in the Finnish fish market.     

The influence of operational flexibility on the exploitation of CO2 reduction potential in industrial energy production

Energy conservation is a key measure for reducing CO₂ emissions. However, realising the emission reduction potential of an energy conservation investment depends on many factors, such as energy prices. The EU emissions trading scheme has made the investment analysis more complicated and increased the economic value of operational flexibility under fluctuating carbon prices. The different operational options in industrial energy production complicate the estimation of CO₂ reduction potential in the investment phase. Increasing operational flexibility enables optimisation in the economic dimension, which may lead to less than optimum CO₂ reduction. In our case study, which analysed the effects of an energy conservation investment made in the pulp and paper industry, the deviation from the expected emission reduction was around 30% over the period from 2000 to 2007. However, it seems that with high carbon prices, increasing operational flexibility has no significant effect on the carbon emissions. In policy-making, the freedom of action that is made possible by increasing operational flexibility should be taken into account when evaluating the contribution of an individual energy efficiency investment towards meeting the national targets for energy efficiency improvement and CO₂ emission reduction.     

An Outbreak of Norovirus Infections Among Lunch Customers at a Restaurant,Tampere, Finland, 2015

On January 29, 2015, the city of Tampere environmental health officers were informed of a possible foodborne outbreak among customers who had eaten lunch in restaurant X. Employees of electric companies A and B had a sudden onset of gastrointestinal symptoms. We conducted a retrospective cohort study to identify the vehicle, source, and causative agent of the outbreak. A case was defined as an employee of companies A or B with diarrhea and/or vomiting who ate lunch at Restaurant X on January 26, 2015. All employees of the companies attending the implicated lunch were invited to participate in the cohort study. Environmental investigation was conducted. Twenty-one responders were included in statistical analysis, of which 11 met with the case definition. Of the 15 food items consumed by participants, four food items were associated with gastroenteritis. Of four kitchen staff, three tested positive for norovirus GIP7, the strain was found earlier in the community. No patient samples were obtained. Level of hygiene in the kitchen was inadequate. Infected kitchen staff probably transmitted norovirus by inadequate hygiene practices. No new cases associated with Restaurant X were reported after the hygiene practices were improved.     

Model correlation in stochastic forest simulators—A case of multilevel multivariate model for seedling establishment

Forest development can be predicted by the use of forest simulators based on various statistical models describing the forest and its dynamics. One potential approach to study the reliability of the simulators is to utilise Monte Carlo simulation techniques to generate a predictive distribution of a forest characteristic. One problem in examining the effect of model uncertainty in forestry decision making, however, is correlation between the models. If this is not taken into account, predictions of the model systems may become biased, and the effect of errors on decision making may be underestimated. In reality, the models often are interdependent, but the correlations usually are not known because the models have been estimated in separate studies. The aim of this paper is to study the impacts of between-model dependencies on the predictive distribution of forest characteristics by Monte Carlo simulation techniques. We utilise a case of predicting seedling establishment of planted Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) stands as an example with multivariate multilevel model structures. Regardless of low cross-correlations between the models, ignoring them led to significant underestimation of the amount of competing broadleaves to be removed in pre-commercial thinning. Therefore, we recommend that between-model dependencies are clarified and considered in stochastic simulations. In our case, between-model interdependencies can be reliably estimated with a limited dataset. In addition, estimating the models separately and using the model residuals to estimate interdependencies between models were also sufficient to take the between-model dependencies into account when producing stochastic predictions for silvicultural decision making.     

Herbivores and variation in the composition of specific phenolics of boreal coniferous trees: a search for patterns

Coniferous trees of different species, or of the same species growing at different locations, vary in the extent to which they are attacked by various herbivores and pathogens. Plant secondary metabolites might be a key to understanding some of this variation. At the site level, we investigated if there was an intra- or interspecies pattern for individual compounds (or for groups of compounds) and their relationship to indices of plant nitrogen and plant productivity. For example, do plants exhibit similar covariance in defence compounds when evaluated across a number of sites varying in productivity? Here, we concentrated on the phenolic profile of Pinus sylvestris, Picea abies, Juniperus communis and Pinus contorta. Our results indicate striking differences in secondary chemistry profiles of the twigs including needles of the trees and in the inter-relationships amongst individual compounds and groups of compounds. Flavonols occurred in high variety in P. sylvestris and were highly correlated with each other, differing from P. contorta. But the results of the factor analyses indicate an underlying pattern for flavonols of the coumaroyl type for P. contorta. In contrast, the compounds of the other tree species showed a low degree of inter-correlation. Co-occurring phenolics of different tree species were not correlated. Overall, our analysis of site indices indicated that plant productivity was not a useful predictor for the concentration of specific phenolics. The relationship amongst plant nitrogen and specific phenolics might be the result of two defence strategies (one related and the other not related to nitrogen content). This might enable the plant to shift its defences against attacks with a high degree of flexibility.     

Does defoliation induce chemical and morphological defenses in the leaves of silver birch seedlings under changing climate?

Summary.  We examined the effects of defoliation con-currently with elevated temperature and CO₂ on some chemical and morphological characteristics in the leaves of silver birch seedlings (Betula pendula). We also analyzed the consequent changes in the palatability of leaves for adult blue alder leaf beetles (Agelastica alni). Under the different climatic treatments, the seedlings were subjected to three fertilizer treatments (0 kg, 130 kg and 270 kg N ha⁻¹) and defoliation treatments (0%, 25% and 50% of the total leaf area). In each climatic treatment, fertilization increased the nitrogen content in the leaves, but decreased total concentrations of soluble phenolics, detected by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), and insoluble condensed tannins. Defoliation, both independently and in combination with elevated temperature and CO₂, decreased the concentrations of the phenolics. Compared to the intact controls, the leaves of the defoliated seedlings were smaller and tougher. Under elevated temperature, the beetles consumed a smaller amount of the leaves of plants subjected to the high fertilization, while under ambient climatic conditions, fertilization increased the feeding. The total leaf consumption was higher under the ambient climatic conditions than under elevated temperature, elevated CO₂ or the combination of elevated temperature and CO₂.     

Genetic relatedness and evolution of insect sociality

Summary Genetic relatedness is a vital concept in the study of the evolution of social behaviour because it can be used to predict gene transmission into future generations. Any models using genetic relatedness to predict the course of social evolution have to take into account that this relatedness, when defined as genotypic regression, is affected by selection and that the evolution also depends on specific assumptions concerning the cost/benefit ratios. In this paper these problems are shown to exist in recent studies examining the evolution of worker behaviour in insects; these studies are reanalysed using allele frequency models, and the results compared with those from other models.It is shown that cyclic inbreeding (alternating outbred and inbred generations) can favour worker evolution in diploid populations but is a necessary condition only within a very limited range of the cost/benefit ratio.Male-haploid models show that both female and male workers evolve more easily if they can manipulate the brood produced by the queen by biassing the brood sex ratio in favour of females (the optimal proportion of females is ca. 0.75). The threshold for female workers to evolve is also lowered if they are allowed to produce some of the colony's male offspring (which arise from unfertilized eggs), in which case the optimal brood sex ratio becomes closer to 1:1. It is apparent that the two factors — sex-ratio bias and worker-produced males — are also important in the comparison of worker evolution in male-haploid and diploid insects.     

Sex allocation and queen-worker conflict in polygynous ants

Summary Sex allocation theory is developed for polygynous eusocial Hymenoptera in which nests recruit their own daughters as new reproductive queens. Such restricted dispersal of females leads to the expectation of male-biased investment ratios. The expectation depends on the parameter q telling what proportion of the total contribution in the gene pool by all new queens is due to those dispersing. Under queen control the expected sex allocation, expressed as the proportion of resources invested in males, is IM =1/(1 + q). Under worker control, IM depends on the relatedness of old queens, on the number of males they have mated with, and on the proportion of males produced by workers. With single mating and no worker reproduction, the approximate predictions for IM are 1/(1 + q) when the nests have many highly related queens, 1/(1 + 2 q) when the old queens are as related as average worker nest mates, and 1/(1 + 3q) when the old queens are not related to each other at all. The observed investment ratios in polygynous ants would, on average, match values of the parameter q between 0.4 and 0.5. Values of q have not been estimated in nature. If q is smaller than 0.4, which may well be true, the observed sex allocation in polygynous ants is in fact more female-biased than predicted by the theory. This indicates that the female bias found in monogynous ants may not be exceptional and could be due to factors other than worker control of sex allocation. Because the value of q is likely to vary among species, testing the predictions of the theory requires thorough single-species studies.