Forward selection of explanatory variables

This paper proposes a new way of using forward selection of explanatory variables in regression or canonical redundancy analysis. The classical forward selection method presents two problems: a highly inflated Type I error and an overestimation of the amount of explained variance. Correcting these problems will greatly improve the performance of this very useful method in ecological modeling. To prevent the first problem, we propose a two-step procedure. First, a global test using all explanatory variables is carried out. If, and only if, the global test is significant, one can proceed with forward selection. To prevent overestimation of the explained variance, the forward selection has to be carried out with two stopping criteria: (1) the usual alpha significance level and (2) the adjusted coefficient of multiple determination (Ra(2)) calculated using all explanatory variables. When forward selection identifies a variable that brings one or the other criterion over the fixed threshold, that variable is rejected, and the procedure is stopped. This improved method is validated by simulations involving univariate and multivariate response data. An ecological example is presented using data from the Bryce Canyon National Park, Utah, U.S.A.     

Spatial decoupling of facilitation and competition at the origin of gapped vegetation patterns

Spatially periodic vegetation patterns, forming gaps, bands, labyrinths, or spots, are characteristic of arid and semiarid landscapes. Self-organization models can explain this variety of structures within a unified conceptual framework. All these models are based on the interplay of positive and negative effects of plants on soil water, but they can be divided according to whether they assume the interactions to be mediated by water redistribution through runoff/diffusion or by plants' organs. We carried out a multi-proxy approach of the processes operating in a gapped pattern in southwest Niger dominated by a shrub species. Soil moisture within the root layer was monitored in time and space over one month of the rainy season. Soil water recharge displayed no spatial variation with respect to vegetation cover, but the stock half-life under cover was twice that of bare areas. A kernel of facilitation by the aboveground parts of shrubs was parameterized, and soil water half-life was significantly correlated to the cumulated facilitative effects of shrubs. The kernel range was found to be smaller than the canopy radius (81%). This effect of plants on soil water dynamics, probably through a reduction of evaporation by shading, is shown to be a better explanatory variable than potentially relevant soil and topography parameters. The root systems of five individuals of Combretum micranthum G. Don were excavated. Root density data were used as a proxy to parameterize a kernel function of interplant competition. The range of this kernel was larger than the canopy radius (125%). The facilitation-to-competition range ratio, reflecting the above-to-belowground ratio of plant lateral extent, was smaller than 1 (0.64), a result supporting models assuming that patterning may emerge from an adaptation of plant morphology to aridity and shallow soils by means of an extended lateral root system. Moreover, observed soil water gradients had directions opposite to those assumed by alternative mathematical models based on underground water diffusion. This study contributes to the growing awareness that combined facilitative and competitive plant interactions can induce landscape-scale patterns and shape the two-way feedback loops between environment and vegetation.     

Fecundity and survival in relation to resistance to oxidative stress in a free-living bird

Major life history traits, such as fecundity and survival, have been consistently demonstrated to covary positively in nature, some individuals having more resources than others to allocate to all aspects of their life history. Yet, little is known about which resources (or state variables) may account for such covariation. Reactive oxygen species (ROS) are natural by-products of metabolism and, when ROS production exceeds antioxidant defenses, organisms are exposed to oxidative stress that can have deleterious effects on their fecundity and survival. Using a wild, long-lived bird, the Alpine Swift (Apus melba), we examined whether individual red cell resistance to oxidative stress covaried with fecundity and survival. We found that males that survived to the next breeding season tended to be more resistant to oxidative stress, and females with higher resistance to oxidative stress laid larger clutches. Furthermore, the eggs of females with low resistance to oxidative stress were less likely to hatch than those of females with high resistance to oxidative stress. By swapping entire clutches at clutch completion, we then demonstrated that hatching failure was related to the production of low-quality eggs by females with low resistance to oxidative stress, rather than to inadequate parental care during incubation. Although male and female resistance to oxidative stress covaried with age, the relationships among oxidative stress, survival, and fecundity occurred independently of chronological age. Overall, our study suggests that oxidative stress may play a significant role in shaping fecundity and survival in the wild. It further suggests that the nature of the covariation between resistance to oxidative stress and life history traits is sex specific, high resistance to oxidative stress covarying primarily with fecundity in females and with survival in males.     

Studying ecological communities from a neutral standpoint: A review of models’ structure and parameter estimation

Neutral models provide an alternative to niche-based assembly rules of ecological communities by assuming that communities’ properties are shaped by the stochastic interplay between ecological drift, migration and speciation. The recent and ongoing interest about neutral assumptions has produced many developments on the theoretical side, with nevertheless limited echoes in terms of analyses of real-world data. The present review paper aims to help bridge the widening gap between modellers and field ecologists through two objectives. First, to provide a multi-criteria typology of the main neutral models, including those from population genetics that have not yet been transposed to ecology, by considering how the fundamental processes of ecological drift, speciation and migration are modelled and, specifically, how space is taken into account. Second, to review methods recently proposed to estimate models parameters from field data, a point that should be mastered to allow for broader applications.     

Are sea snakes pertinent bio-indicators for coral reefs? a comparison between species and sites

Classical sampling methods often miss important components of coral reef biodiversity, notably organisms that remain sheltered within the coral matrix. Recent studies using sea kraits (sea snakes) as bio-indicators suggest that the guild of predators represented by anguilliform fish (Congridae, Muraenidae, Ophichthidae, henceforth “eels” for simplicity) were far more abundant and diverse than previously suspected. In the current study, eel diversity (similarity and species richness indices) estimated via sea snake sampling (SSS) was compared among six areas of one of the main oceanic biodiversity hotspot of the Pacific Ocean (southwest lagoon of New Caledonia). Based on the eel diversity in the snakes’ diet, the results obtained in six areas, in two snake species, and using different estimates (ANOSIM, Shannon index…) were consistent, suggesting that SSS provided robust information. Analyses also suggested subtle, albeit significant, differences in the eel assemblages among islets. Such spatial differences are discussed in light of local management practices. As SSS is easy to use, cost-effective, and provides the best picture of eel assemblages to date, it can be employed to monitor the eel assemblages in addition to the snakes themselves in many areas of the Indo-Pacific Ocean, thereby providing an index of the top predator biodiversity of many coral reefs.     

Aerobic Biodegradation of Polymers in Solid-State Conditions: A Review of Environmental and Physicochemical Parameter Settings in Laboratory Simulations

During the last few years, biodegradable polymers have been developed to replace petrochemical polymers. Until now, research devoted to these polymers essentially focused on their biodegradability. There is now a need to bear out their nontoxicity. To verify this, the biodegradation must be carried out in accelerated laboratory tests which allow the metabolites and residues to be recovered. To reproduce the natural conditions (compost, field) as closely as possible, degradation experiments must be run on solid-state substrates. We review studies of aerobic degradation in solid-state substrates. This article focuses in particular on the environmental, physical, and chemical parameters (such as substrate nature, moisture, temperature, C/N ratio, and pH) that influence biodegradation kinetics. This study also aims at finding the solid substrate most adapted to residues and metabolite recovery. The most significant parameters would appear to be the substrate type, moisture content, and temperature. Inert substrates such as vermiculite are well suited to residue extraction. This review also opens the field to new research aimed at optimizing conditions for aerobic solid-state biodegradation and at recovering the metabolites and residues of this degradation process.     

Intraguild predation by <Emphasis Type="Italic">Harmonia axyridis</Emphasis> on coccinellids revealed by exogenous alkaloid sequestration

Summary.  Under laboratory conditions, the multicolored Asian lady beetle, Harmonia axyridis is well known as an intraguild predator of other ladybirds. However the real impact of this exotic species on native species was poorly investigated in the field. Because many ladybird species produce alkaloids as defensive compounds, we propose here a new method of intraguild predation monitoring in coccinellids based on alkaloid quantification by GC-MS. In laboratory experiments, adaline was unambiguously detected in fourth instar larvae of H. axyridis having ingested one egg or one first instar larva of Adalia bipunctata. Although prey alkaloids in the predator decreased with time, traces were still detected in pupae, exuviae and imagines of H. axyridis having ingested one prey when they were fourth instar larvae. Analysis of H. axyridis larvae collected in two potato fields shows for the first time in Europe the presence of exogenous alkaloids in 9 out of 28 individuals tested. This new method of intraguild predation detection could be used more widely to follow the interactions between predators and potential chemically defended insect preys.     

Accounting for rate instability and spatial patterns in the boundary analysis of cancer mortality maps

Boundary analysis of cancer maps may highlight areas where causative exposures change through geographic space, the presence of local populations with distinct cancer incidences, or the impact of different cancer control methods. Too often, such analysis ignores the spatial pattern of incidence or mortality rates and overlooks the fact that rates computed from sparsely populated geographic entities can be very unreliable. This paper proposes a new methodology that accounts for the uncertainty and spatial correlation of rate data in the detection of significant edges between adjacent entities or polygons. Poisson kriging is first used to estimate the risk value and the associated standard error within each polygon, accounting for the population size and the risk semivariogram computed from raw rates. The boundary statistic is then defined as half the absolute difference between kriged risks. Its reference distribution, under the null hypothesis of no boundary, is derived through the generation of multiple realizations of the spatial distribution of cancer risk values. This paper presents three types of neutral models generated using methods of increasing complexity: the common random shuffle of estimated risk values, a spatial re-ordering of these risks, or p-field simulation that accounts for the population size within each polygon. The approach is illustrated using age-adjusted pancreatic cancer mortality rates for white females in 295 US counties of the Northeast (1970–1994). Simulation studies demonstrate that Poisson kriging yields more accurate estimates of the cancer risk and how its value changes between polygons (i.e., boundary statistic), relatively to the use of raw rates or local empirical Bayes smoother. When used in conjunction with spatial neutral models generated by p-field simulation, the boundary analysis based on Poisson kriging estimates minimizes the proportion of type I errors (i.e., edges wrongly declared significant) while the frequency of these errors is predicted well by the p-value of the statistical test.

Fe-pillared clay as a Fenton-type heterogeneous catalyst for cinnamic acid degradation

Fe-pillared montmorillonite has been used as a Fenton-type heterogeneous catalyst for the removal of cinnamic acid in water. The influences of the cinnamic acid, catalyst and H2O2 concentrations and pH on the removal rate of cinnamic acid have been studied. The results show that the efficiency of Fe-pillared montmorillonite is higher than that of the Fe ions in the homogeneous phase, and less sensitive to pH.