Use of n-fold cross-validation to evaluate three methods to calculate heavy truck annual average daily traffic and vehicle miles traveled

Reliable estimates of heavy-truck volumes in the United States are important in a number of transportation applications including pavement design and management, traffic safety, and traffic operations. Additionally, because heavy vehicles emit pollutants at much higher rates than passenger vehicles, reliable volume estimates are critical to computing accurate inventories of on-road emissions. Accurate baseline inventories are also necessary to forecast future scenarios. The research presented in this paper evaluated three different methods commonly used by transportation agencies to estimate annual average daily traffic (AADT), which is used to determine vehicle miles traveled (VMT). Traffic data from continuous count stations provided by the Iowa Department of Transportation were used to estimate AADT for single-unit and multiunit trucks for rural freeways and rural primary highways using the three methods. The first method developed general expansion factors, which apply to all vehicles. AADT, representing all vehicles, was estimated for short-term counts and was multiplied by statewide average truck volumes for the corresponding roadway type to obtain AADT for each truck category. The second method also developed general expansion factors and AADT estimates. Truck AADT for the second method was calculated by multiplying the general AADT by truck volumes from the short-term counts. The third method developed expansion factors specific to each truck group. AADT estimates for each truck group were estimated from short-term counts using corresponding expansion factors. Accuracy of the three methods was determined by comparing actual AADT from count station data to estimates from the three methods. Accuracy of the three methods was compared using n-fold cross-validation. Mean squared error of prediction was used to estimate the difference between estimated and actual AADT. Prediction error was lowest for the method that developed separate expansion factors for trucks. Implications for emissions estimation using the different methods are also discussed.     

A conceptual model and empirical analysis of children's acquisition of spatial knowledge

How adults and children come to understand, represent and behave within their spatial environment are topics of great interest to geographers, psychologists, environmental planners and laypeople. Considerable research and theory has been published on these and related topics. In this paper, we will review some of what is known and theorized about spatial cognition and then consider elements of our research program on the acquisition of spatial knowledge. We focus on two intimately related topics. The first is the development of a conceptual model of the knowledge structures and processes associated with acquiring, representing and accessing knowledge of a given environment. The conceptual model forms the basis for a formal computational process model intended as a simulation of actual knowledge and performance in way finding tasks. The second emphasis is an in-depth case study of the acquisition of spatial knowledge. The case study focuses on a single child acquiring knowledge of a lengthy route through an unfamiliar suburban neighborhood. It is presented as an empirical test of certain assumptions embodied within the conceptual model.Before introducing the conceptual model and the case study, we first review the state of current theory and data on spatial cognition and identify four central issues confronting researchers in this field. This review provides a necessary context for describing and evaluating our program of research. The second section of this paper discusses elements of the conceptual model and its relationship to other formal computational models. The third section considers specific hypotheses about the acquisition and representation of spatial knowledge and tests of these hypotheses from the single in-depth case study. The final discussion section of this paper is a reconsideration of the four issues raised in the first section and necessary and proposed extensions of the current research.     

Acute oral toxicity as LD50 (mg/kg) of propargyl alcohol to male and female rats

Dosages of propargyl alcohol ranging from 0 to 400 mg/kg in 0.5 ml aqueous solutions were administered by gavage to young adult male and female rats of the Sprague-Dawley strain weighing from 180 to 200 g. The treated animals were held 48 hrs at 24 degrees C with food and water ad libitum, after which the dead rats were counted. The oral LD50 was calculated by the probit method (Finney, 1971) as 110 (100-120) mg/kg for male rats and 55 (50-60) mg/kg for female rats.     

An appraisal of the potential use of fly ash for reclaiming coal mine spoil

Growing dependence on coal-fired power plants for electrical generation in many countries presents ongoing environmental challenges. Burning pulverized coal in thermal power plants (TPPs) generates large amounts of fly ash (FA) that must be disposed of or otherwise handled, in an environmentally-sound manner. A possible option for dealing with fly ash is to use it as an amendment for mine spoil or other damaged soil. It has been demonstrated through studies in India and other countries that FA alone or in combination with organic or inorganic materials can be used in a productive manner for reclamation of mine spoil. The characteristics of FA, including silt-sized particles, lighter materials with low bulk density (BD), higher water holding capacity, favorable pH and significant concentrations of many essential plant nutrients, make it a potentially favorable amendment for mine spoil reclamation. Studies have indicated that the application of FA has improved the physical, chemical and biological qualities of soil to which it is applied. The release of trace metals and soluble salts from FA could be a major limitation to its application. This is particularly true of fresh, un-weathered FA or acidic FA, although perhaps not a concern for weathered/pond ash or alkaline FA. Some potential contaminants, especially metals and other salt ions, could be immobilized and rendered biologically inert by the addition of certain inorganic and organic amendments. However, in view of the variability in the characteristics of FAs that are associated with location, feed coal, combustion conditions and other factors, the suitability of a particular FA for a specific soil/mine spoil needs to be critically evaluated before it is applied in order to maximize favorable results and eliminate unexpected consequences. FA generated in India tends to be mostly alkaline, with lower levels of trace elements than are often found in FAs from other countries. The concentrations of potential chemical stressors, predominantly metals, in Indian FAs are often less than established or proposed permissible limits and are thus better suited for soil application. A major logistic limitation to the use of FA could be the cost involved in transport of ash from production to utilization sites.     

Pregnancy patterns of pantropical spotted dolphins (Stenella attenuata) in the eastern tropical Pacific determined from hormonal analysis of blubber biopsies and correlations with the purse-seine tuna fishery

The northeastern offshore population of the pantropical spotted dolphin (Stenella attenuata) in the eastern tropical Pacific remains listed as depleted under the Marine Mammal Protection Act, and recent estimates of abundance show that recovery has been slow. One hypothesis for the slow recovery is that continued chase and encirclement by the tuna fishery negatively affects reproduction. Insufficient life-history sampling in this region over the last two decades makes traditional estimates of reproductive rates impossible. Here, we examine the current reproductive patterns of these dolphins by measuring blubber progesterone (BP) concentrations in biopsy samples to assess pregnancy state. BP was quantified in 212 biopsies from female offshore spotted dolphins sampled between 1998 and 2003 in the northeastern tropical Pacific, and we found that 11.5 % of the biopsied females (mature and immature) were pregnant. The relationship between pregnancy and fishery exposure was analyzed, and we found that pregnant females were exposed to significantly less fishery activity than non-pregnant ones (p = 0.022), suggesting that the fishery may have an inhibitive effect on pregnancy. Spatial analysis indicated that pregnancy was more aggregated than random (p < 0.05) at a scale up to 180-nmi, with the highest proportion pregnant in the mouth of the Gulf of California, an area with relatively low reported fishery activity.     

Harmful postures and musculoskeletal symptoms among sanitation workers of a fish processing factory in ghana: a preliminary investigation.

This study investigated musculoskeletal symptoms among sanitation workers of a fish-processing factory. The methods used included administration of a questionnaire, walk through observation, interview, task analysis and future workshop. All 27 male participants answered and submitted their questionnaires. Of the 11 operations identified, all except one was considered safe. Bent back, bent legs, and heavy manual handling were observed to impose intolerable health risk on participants. This corresponds with questionnaire results in which musculoskeletal symptoms were mostly prevalent in the neck, the shoulder, the low back, the wrists/hands and the upper back regions. Poor psychosocial complaints were also made on the job. There was no significant correlation (p < .05) between musculoskeletal symptoms and age, working hours and length of service. Neither was any significant correlation observed (p < .05) between psychosocial work factors and musculoskeletal symptoms. Recommendations such as task redesign to eliminate high-risk elements in operations, workplace changes and worker training were suggested.     

AN EVALUATION OF PHYSICAL STREAM HABITAT ATTRIBUTES USED TO MONITOR STREAMS1

ABSTRACT: The last few decades have seen an increased reliance on the use of stream attributes to monitor stream conditions. The use of stream attributes has been criticized because of variation in how observers evaluate them, inconsistent protocol application, lack of consistent training, and the difficulty in using them to detect change caused by management activity. In this paper, we evaluate the effect of environmental heterogeneity and observer variation on the use of physical stream attributes as monitoring tools. For most stream habitat attributes evaluated, difference among streams accounted for greater than 80 percent of the total survey variation. To minimize the effect that variation among streams has on evaluating stream conditions, it may be necessary to design survey protocols and analysis that include stratification, permanent sites, and/or analysis of covariance. Although total variation was primarily due to differences among streams, observers also differed in their evaluation of stream attributes. This study suggests that if trained observers conducting a study that is designed to account for environmental heterogeneity can objectively evaluate defined stream attributes, results should prove valuable in monitoring differences in reach scale stream conditions. The failure to address any of these factors will likely lead to the failure of stream attributes as effective monitoring tools.