Impact of bioenergy crops in a carbon dioxide constrained world: an application of the MiniCAM energy-agriculture and land use model

In the coming century, modern bioenergy crops have the potential to play a crucial role in the global energy mix, especially under policies to reduce carbon dioxide emissions as proposed by many in the international community. Previous studies have not fully addressed many of the dynamic interactions and effects of a policy-induced expansion of bioenergy crop production, particularly on crop yields and human food demand. This study combines an updated agriculture and land use (AgLU) model with a well-developed energy-economic model to provide an analysis of the effects of bioenergy crops on energy, agricultural and land use systems. The results indicate that carbon dioxide mitigation policies can stimulate a large production of bioenergy crops, dependent on the level of the policy. This production of bioenergy crops can lead to several impacts on the agriculture and land use system: decreases in forestland and unmanaged land, decreases in the average yield of food crops, increases in the prices of food crops, and decreases in the level of human demand of calories.

种植密度和降水对冬小麦田N2O排放的影响

为研究种植密度对农田N2O排放的影响和探讨N₂O排放季节性波动的原因,于1999～2000年小麦生长季在南京市郊江宁县进行了不同播种量(0、90、180和270kg/hm²)的大田试验.观测分析结果表明:在相同的气象条件和田间管理下,播种～越冬阶段的N₂O排放不受播种量的影响,返青～成熟阶段的N₂O排放通量与播种量成正比.裸地条件下的N₂O排放与播量为90kg/hm²下的排放无明显差异.造成该生长季内N₂O排放季节性波动的主要原因是降水,返青～成熟阶段的N₂O排放通量随观测日前6d的加权平均降水量呈指数增加.     

A Bayesian approach to multi-source forest area estimation

In efforts such as land use change monitoring, carbon budgeting, and forecasting ecological conditions and timber supply, there is increasing demand for regional and national data layers depicting forest cover. These data layers must permit small area estimates of forest area and, most importantly, provide associated error estimates. This paper presents a model-based approach for coupling mid-resolution satellite imagery with plot-based forest inventory data to produce estimates of probability of forest and associated error at the pixel-level. The proposed Bayesian hierarchical model provides access to each pixel’s posterior predictive distribution allowing for a highly flexible analysis of pixel and multi-pixel areas of interest. The paper presents a trial using multiple dates of Landsat imagery and USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis plot data. The results describe the spatial dependence structure within the trial site, provide pixel and multi-pixel summaries of probability of forest land use, and explore discretization schemes of the posterior predictive distributions to forest and non-forest classes. Model prediction results of a holdout set analysis suggest the proposed model provides high classification accuracy, 88%, for the trial site.

Scale-dependent variation in coral community similarity across sites, islands, and island groups

Community similarity is the proportion of species richness in a region that is shared on average among communities within that region. The slope of local richness (alpha diversity) regressed on regional richness (gamma diversity) can serve as an index of community similarity across regions with different regional richness. We examined community similarity in corals at three spatial scales (among transects at a site, sites on an island, and islands within an island group) across a 10 000-km longitudinal diversity gradient in the west-central Pacific Ocean. When alpha diversity was regressed on gamma diversity, the slopes, and thus community similarity, increased with scale (0.085, 0.261, and 0.407, respectively) because a greater proportion of gamma diversity was subsumed within alpha diversity as scale increased. Using standard randomization methods, we also examined how community similarity differed between observed and randomized assemblages and how this difference was affected by spatial separation of species within habitat types and specialization of species to three habitat types (reef flats, crests, and slopes). If spatial separation within habitat types and/or habitat specialization (i.e., underdispersion) occurs, fewer species are shared among assemblages than the random expectation. When the locations of individual coral colonies were randomized within and among habitat types, community similarity was 46-47% higher than that for observed assemblages at all three scales. We predicted that spatial separation of coral species within habitat types should increase with scale due to dispersal/extinction dynamics in this insular system, but that specialization of species to different habitat types should not change because habitat differences do not change with scale. However, neither habitat specialization nor spatial separation within habitat types differed among scales. At the two larger scales, each accounted for 22-24% of the difference in community similarity between observed and randomized assemblages. At the smallest scale (transect-site), neither spatial separation within habitat types nor habitat specialization had significant effects on community similarity, probably due to the small size of transect samples. The results suggest that coral species can disperse among islands in an island group as easily as they can among sites on an island over time scales that are relevant to their establishment and persistence on reefs.     

Sources of halogens in the environment,influences on human and animal health

Of the halogens, fluorine has the highest crustal abundance (544 mg/kg) while iodine has the lowest (0.25 mg/kg), however, chlorine is by far the most abundant halogen in the cosmos. The geochemistries of the four naturally occurring halogens have some similarities with fluorine, chlorine and bromine being classified as lithophile elements while iodine is more chalcophile in nature. Bromine and iodine behave in a similar fashion in the secondary environment and could be classified as biophile elements being concentrated in organic matter. Chlorine, bromine and iodine are strongly enriched in the sea while iodine and to a lesser extent bromine are further concentrated in the marine algae.Apart from the occurrence of fluorine in fluorite (CaF₂) there are few commonly occurring minerals which contain the halogens as essential constituents. In the igneous environment fluorine and chlorine tend to occupy hydroxyl lattice sites in micas, amphiboles, apatites etc., while in sediments clays can contain appreciable quantities of these elements. Bromine and iodine, however, would be unlikely to fit into the lattice sites of common rock-forming minerals.Bromine, like iodine, is probably volatilised from the marine environment and is carried on to land surfaces. This behaviour of iodine and bromine is reflected in the increased I/CI and Br/CI ratios of surface run-off in continental compared with near coastal environments.Limited information on the soil geochemistry of the halogens suggests that the soil contents of chlorine, bromine and iodine are influenced by proximity to the sea. Soil fluorine, however, is generally dependent on its content in the parent material. In some areas pollutant sources of the halogens contribute appreciably to their concentration in the environment.Iodine and chlorine are essential elements for mammals and fluorine has been shown to have beneficial effects on bone and tooth formation. However, excess quantities of dietary fluorine can be harmful. It is possible, in view of its ubiquitous occurrence in the biosphere, that bromine has a hitherto unknown function in human and animal health.     

Anti-predation behaviour of red colobus monkeys in the presence of chimpanzees

Predator-prey interactions are usually regarded as evolutionary “arms races”, but evidence is still scarce. We examined whether the anti-predation strategies of red colobus monkeys (Procolobus badius) are adapted to the hunting strategies of chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) in the Taï National Park, Ivory Coast. Taï chimpanzees search for red colobus groups, approach them silently and hunt co-operatively. Our playback experiments and observations of natural encounters revealed that red colobus hid higher up the trees in positions where exposure to the forest floor is minimal and became silent, when chimpanzees were close. They moved away silently through the canopy, when chimpanzees were still at some distance. However, if a group of diana monkeys was nearby in the latter situation, red colobus sought their presence even if they had to move towards the chimpanzees. Chimpanzees refrained from hunting associated red colobus groups, probably because diana monkeys are excellent sentinels for predators approaching over the forest floor. Thus several elements of both the predator's and the prey's strategies correspond to each other. Finally, we compared the interactions between the two species in Taï and in Gombe, Tanzania. We suggest that the difference in size ratio between the two species at the two sites and adaptation of hunting techniques and of escape modes to different forest structures can explain why Gombe red colobus attack chimpanzees while Taï red colobus try to escape. We conclude that predator-prey interactions can indeed lead to evolutionary arms races, with the specific form of co-adaptations depending on environmental factors.     

Unusual sources of aluminium and heavy metals in potable waters

Aluminium in water supplies derives from natural sources and from the use of Al₂(SO₄)₃ in water treatment. Heavy metals such as Pb, Cu, Zn and Cd can be added to water from pipework and solder. However, it is apparent that AI and other metals in potable waters can derive from deposits on pipe walls which can be subsequently mobilised when the supply and/or treatment process is changed. Concentrations of Al in domestic supply water of the Llanbrynmair area have been shown to increase from 1 g to 50 g L^–1 during its 18 km journey along the water main. Similarly, Pb concentrations in a public building in the Aberystwyth area are found to be extremely elevated due to the metal's mobilisation from encrustations occurring on the copper pipework.