A method for quantifying bias in modeled concentrations and source impacts for secondary particulate matter

A method for quantifying source impacts for secondary PM_2.5 species is derived. The method provides estimates of bias in modeled concentrations. Adjusted concentrations match corresponding observations at monitored locations. Sources impacts on secondary species are estimated over the US for 20 sources. Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) estimates of sulfates, nitrates, ammonium, and organic carbon are highly influenced by uncertainties in modeled secondary formation processes, such as chemical mechanisms, volatilization, and condensation rates. These compounds constitute the majority of PM_2.5 mass, and reducing bias in estimated concentrations has benefits for policy measures and epidemiological studies. In this work, a method for adjusting source impacts on secondary species is developed that provides estimates of source contributions and reduces bias in modeled concentrations compared to observations. The bias correction adjusts concentrations and source impacts based on the difference between modeled concentrations and observations while taking into account uncertainties at the location of interest; and it is applied both spatially and temporally. We apply the method over the US for 2006. The mean bias for initial CMAQ concentrations compared to observations is −0.28 (OC), 0.11 (NO₃), 0.05 (NH₄), and −0.08 (SO₄). The normalized mean bias in modeled concentrations compared to observations was effectively zero for OC, NO₃, NH₄, and SO₄ after applying the secondary bias correction. 10-fold cross-validation was conducted to determine the performance of the spatial application of the bias correction. Cross-validation performance was favorable; correlation coefficients were greater than 0.69 for all species when comparing observations and concentrations based on kriged correction factors. The methods presented here address model uncertainties by improving simulated concentrations and source impacts of secondary particulate matter through data assimilation. Secondary-adjusted concentrations and source impacts from 20 emissions sources are generated for 2006 over continental US.     

“Friendships” between new mothers and adult males: adaptive benefits and determinants in wild baboons (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Papio cynocephalus</Emphasis>)

Close associations between adult males and lactating females and their dependent infants are not commonly described in non-monogamous mammals. However, such associations [sometimes called “friendships” (Smuts 1985)] are regularly observed in several primate species in which females mate with multiple males during the fertile period. The absence of mating exclusivity among “friends” suggests that males should invest little in infant care, raising questions about the adaptive significance of friendship bonds. Using data from genetic paternity analyses, patterns of behavior, and long-term demographic and reproductive records, we evaluated the extent to which friendships in four multi-male, multi-female yellow baboon (Papio cynocephalus) groups in Amboseli, Kenya represent joint parental care of offspring or male mating effort. We found evidence that mothers and infants benefited directly from friendships; friendships provided mother–infant dyads protection from harassment from other adult and immature females. In addition, nearly half of all male friends were the genetic fathers of offspring and had been observed mating with mothers during the days of most likely conception for those offspring. In contrast, nearly all friends who were not fathers were also not observed to consort with the mother during the days of most likely conception, suggesting that friendships between mothers and non-fathers did not result from paternity confusion. Finally, we found no evidence that prior friendship increased a male’s chances of mating with a female in future reproductive cycles. Our results suggest that, for many male–female pairs at Amboseli, friendships represented a form of biparental care of offspring. Males in the remaining friendship dyads may be trading protection of infants in exchange for some resources or services not yet identified. Our study is the first to find evidence that female primates gain social benefits from their early associations with adult males. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Effects of sheltering fish on growth of their host corals

Stony corals are the foundation species of tropical reefs, and their structures can harbor a diverse range of mutualist taxa that can confer important benefits, including provision of nutrients. Prominent among the associates of branching coral in the genus Pocillopora are groups of zooplanktivorous damselfishes that take refuge in the coral to avoid their predators. In field and laboratory experiments, we explored the effects of colonies of resident damselfishes on growth of their host corals. Laboratory studies revealed a positive relationship between biomass of fish and output of ammonium. In the field, levels of ammonium were significantly elevated in the water surrounding the branches of Pocillopora occupied by colonies of damselfish, particularly in time periods following active feeding by the fish. Experimental manipulation of the presence of fish on host corals during a month-long field experiment revealed that corals hosting fish grew significantly more than those that lacked fish, and coral growth was positively correlated with the biomass of resident fish. The Pocillopora colonies in the field experiment varied in the degree of openness of their branching structure, and dye studies indicated that this affected their ability to retain waterborne nutrients. Together with biomass of resident fish, colony openness explained 76% of the variation in coral growth rate during the experiment. Corals can exhibit considerable morphological variability, and mutualistic fish respond to colony architecture during habitat selection, with some species preferring more open-branched forms. This makes it likely that corals may face tradeoffs in attracting resident fish and in retaining the nutrients they provide.     

Offspring size variation within broods as a bet-hedging strategy in unpredictable environments

Offspring size is strikingly variable within species. Although theory can account for variation in offspring size among mothers, an adaptive explanation for variation within individual broods has proved elusive. Theoretical considerations of this problem assume that producing offspring that are too small results in reduced offspring viability, but producing offspring that are too large (for that environment) results only in a lost opportunity for increased fecundity. However, logic and recent evidence suggest that offspring above a certain size will also have lower fitness, such that mothers face fitness penalties on either side of an optimum. Although theory assuming intermediate optima has been developed for other diversification traits, the implications of this idea for selection on intra-brood variance in offspring size have not been explored theoretically. Here we model the fitness of mothers producing offspring of uniform vs. variable size in unpredictably variable environments and compare these two strategies under a variety of conditions. Our model predicts that producing variably sized offspring results in higher mean maternal fitness and less variation in fitness among generations when there is a maximum and minimum viable offspring size, and when many mothers under- or overestimate this optimum. This effect is especially strong when the viable offspring size range is narrow relative to the range of environmental variation. To determine whether this prediction is consistent with empirical evidence, we compared within- and among-mother variation in offspring size for five phyla of marine invertebrates with different developmental modes corresponding to contrasting levels of environmental predictability. Our comparative analysis reveals that, in the developmental mode in which mothers are unlikely to anticipate the relationship between offspring size and performance, size variation within mothers exceeds variation among mothers, but the converse is true when optimal offspring size is likely to be more predictable. Together, our results support the hypothesis that variation in offspring size within broods can reflect an adaptive strategy for dealing with unpredictably variable environments. We suggest that, when there is a minimum and a maximum viable offspring size and the environment is unpredictable, selection will act on both the mean and variance of offspring size.     

The contribution of advective fluxes to net ecosystem exchange in a high-elevation, subalpine forest

The eddy covariance technique, which is used in the determination of net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE), is subject to significant errors when advection that carries CO2 in the mean flow is ignored. We measured horizontal and vertical advective CO2 fluxes at the Niwot Ridge AmeriFlux site (Colorado, USA) using a measurement approach consisting of multiple towers. We observed relatively high rates of both horizontal (F(hadv)) and vertical (F(vadv)) advective fluxes at low surface friction velocities (u(*)) which were associated with downslope katabatic flows. We observed that F(hadv) was confined to a relatively thin layer (0-6 m thick) of subcanopy air that flowed beneath the eddy covariance sensors principally at night, carrying with it respired CO2 from the soil and lower parts of the canopy. The observed F(vadv) came from above the canopy and was presumably due to the convergence of drainage flows at the tower site. The magnitudes of both F(hadv) and F(vadv) were similar, of opposite sign, and increased with decreasing u(*), meaning that they most affected estimates of the total CO2 flux on calm nights with low wind speeds. The mathematical sign, temporal variation and dependence on u(*) of both F(hadv) and F(vadv) were determined by the unique terrain of the Niwot Ridge site. Therefore, the patterns we observed may not be broadly applicable to other sites. We evaluated the influence of advection on the cumulative annual and monthly estimates of the total CO2 flux (F(c)), which is often used as an estimate of NEE, over six years using the dependence of F(hadv) and F(vadv) on u(*). When the sum of F(hadv) and F(vadv) was used to correct monthly F(c), we observed values that were different from the monthly F(c) calculated using the traditional u(*)-filter correction by--16 to 20 g C x m(-2) x mo(-1); the mean percentage difference in monthly Fc for these two methods over the six-year period was 10%. When the sum of F(hadv) and F(vadv) was used to correct annual Fc, we observed a 65% difference compared to the traditional u(*)-filter approach. Thus, the errors to the local CO2 budget, when F(hadv) and F(vadv) are ignored, can become large when compounded in cumulative fashion over long time intervals. We conclude that the "micrometeorological" (using observations of F(hadv) and F(vadv)) and "biological" (using the u(*) filter and temperature vs. F(c) relationship) corrections differ on the basis of fundamental mechanistic grounds. The micrometeorological correction is based on aerodynamic mechanisms and shows no correlation to drivers of biological activity. Conversely, the biological correction is based on climatic responses of organisms and has no physical connection to aerodynamic processes. In those cases where they impose corrections of similar magnitude on the cumulative F(c) sum, the result is due to a serendipitous similarity in scale but has no clear mechanistic explanation.     

Interlaboratory comparison exercise for the analysis of PCDD/Fs in samples of digested sewage sludge

Five UK laboratories participated in a study designed to explore the principal sources of interlaboratory variation in the analysis of PCDD/Fs in sewage sludge. Samples of wet sludge, dry sludge, toluene extract of sludge and cleaned extract of sludge were prepared by an organising laboratory. The samples were analysed in duplicate by each laboratory along with a solution of PCDD/F standards and reference sediment. Mean coefficients of variation between laboratories were 45% for the wet sludge, 33% for the dry sludge, 32% for the extract of sludge, 36% for the cleaned extract of sludge, 32% for the reference sediment and 28% for the standard solution. The results were subjected to statistical analysis, which showed that there was no specific part of the analysis that introduced a dominant part of the variation. The spread of data generated from the analysis of wet sludge samples was not appreciably greater than the spread for the analysis of cleaned extracts. Thus the drying, extraction and clean up processes in the PCDD/F analysis of wet sludge did not have a dramatic effect on the interlaboratory variation.     

Fiji's worst natural disaster: the 1931 hurricane and flood

At least 225 people in the Fiji Islands died as a result of the 1931 hurricane and flood, representing the largest loss of life from a natural disaster in Fiji's recent history. This paper explores the causes of disaster and the potential for recurrence. The disaster occurred because a rare event surprised hundreds of people—especially recently settled Indian farmers—occupying highly exposed floodplains in north‐west Viti Levu island. The likelihood of a flood disaster of such proportions occurring today has been diminished by changed settlement patterns and building materials; however, a trend towards re‐occupancy of floodplains, sometimes in fragile dwellings, is exposing new generations to flood risks. The contribution of this paper to the global hazards literature is set out in three sections: the ethnicity, gender and age of flood fatalities; the naturalness of disasters; and the merit of choice and constraint as explanations for patterns of vulnerability.     

Estimating yields of salt- and water-stressed forages with remote sensing in the visible and near infrared

In arid irrigated regions, the proportion of crop production under deficit irrigation with poorer quality water is increasing as demand for fresh water soars and efforts to prevent saline water table development occur. Remote sensing technology to quantify salinity and water stress effects on forage yield can be an important tool to address yield loss potential when deficit irrigating with poor water quality. Two important forages, alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) and tall wheatgrass (Agropyron elongatum L.), were grown in a volumetric lysimeter facility where rootzone salinity and water content were varied and monitored. Ground-based hyperspectral canopy reflectance in the visible and near infrared (NIR) were related to forage yields from a broad range of salinity and water stress conditions. Canopy reflectance spectra were obtained in the 350- to 1000-nm region from two viewing angles (nadir view, 45 degrees from nadir). Nadir view vegetation indices (VI) were not as strongly correlated with leaf area index changes attributed to water and salinity stress treatments for both alfalfa and wheatgrass. From a list of 71 VIs, two were selected for a multiple linear-regression model that estimated yield under varying salinity and water stress conditions. With data obtained during the second harvest of a three-harvest 100-d growing period, regression coefficients for each crop were developed and then used with the model to estimate fresh weights for preceding and succeeding harvests during the same 100-d interval. The model accounted for 72% of the variation in yields in wheatgrass and 94% in yields of alfalfa within the same salinity and water stress treatment period. The model successfully predicted yield in three out of four cases when applied to the first and third harvest yields. Correlations between indices and yield increased as canopy development progressed. Growth reductions attributed to simultaneous salinity and water stress were well characterized, but the corrections for effects of varying tissue nitrogen (N) and very low leaf area index (LAI) are necessary.