Uncertainty analysis in integrated assessment: the users’ perspective

Integrated Assessment (IA) models aim at providing information- and decision-support to complex problems. This paper argues that uncertainty analysis in IA models should be user-driven in order to strengthen science–policy interaction. We suggest an approach to uncertainty analysis that starts with investigating model users’ demands for uncertainty information. These demands are called “uncertainty information needs”. Identifying model users’ uncertainty information needs allows focusing the analysis on those uncertainties which users consider relevant and meaningful. As an illustrative example, we discuss the case of examining users’ uncertainty information needs in the SEAMLESS Integrated Framework (SEAMLESS-IF), an IA model chain for assessing and comparing alternative agricultural and environmental policy options. The most important user group of SEAMLESS-IF are policy experts at the European and national level. Uncertainty information needs of this user group were examined in an interactive process during the development of SEAMLESS-IF and by using a questionnaire. Results indicate that users’ information requirements differed from the uncertainty categories considered most relevant by model developers. In particular, policy experts called for addressing a broader set of uncertainty sources (e.g. model structure and technical model setup). The findings highlight that investigating users’ uncertainty information needs is an essential step towards creating confidence in an IA model and its outcomes. This alone, however, may not be sufficient for effectively implementing a user-oriented uncertainty analysis in such models. As the case study illustrates, it requires to include uncertainty analysis into user participation from the outset of the IA modelling process.     

Effects of water viscosity upon ventilation and metabolism of a flatfish,the common sole <Emphasis Type="Italic">Solea solea</Emphasis> (L.)

The French Atlantic coast contains large highly productive intertidal mudflats that are colonised by juveniles of numerous flatfish species, including the common sole (Solea solea, L.). These ecosystems are also heavily exploited by the shellfish farming industry. Intensive bivalve culture is associated with substantial biodeposition (1–6 t-dw ha⁻¹ day⁻¹), which directly or indirectly contributes to increase exopolysaccharide (EPS) concentrations at the interface between water column and seabed. EPS are long-chain molecules organised into colloids, which influence rheological properties of water, particularly viscosity. Increased water viscosity had consequences for ventilatory activity of juvenile flatfish, whereby the minimal pressure required to ventilate the medium increases directly with EPS concentration. Moreover, the critical EPS concentration ([EPS]_crit) at which water was no longer able to flow through the branchial basket ranged from almost nil to over 30 mg l⁻¹, depending on species and size. [EPS]_crit was lower in small individuals and individuals from species with high metabolic rates (turbot and plaice). These differences may depend upon gill and bucco-branchial cavity morphometrics. The ventilatory workload of sole increased with viscosity to a maximum at 2 mg EPS l⁻¹. Viscosity might, therefore, be a limiting factor for flatfish post larvae, which colonise the intertidal mudflats, depending upon their size and species. EPS concentrations in the field can reach 15 mg l⁻¹. A selective effect is conceivable but remains to be estimated in the field.     

Rapid Assessment of Population Size by Area Sampling in Disaster Situations

In the initial phase of a complex emergency, an immediate population size assessment method, based on area sampling, is vital to provide relief workers with a rapid population estimate in refugee camps. In the past decade, the method has been progressively improved; six examples are presented in this paper and questions raised about its statistical validity as well as important issues for further research. There are two stages. The first is to map the camp by registering all of its co-ordinates. In the second stage, the total camp population is estimated by counting the population living in a limited number of square blocks of known surface area, and by extrapolating average population calculated per block to the total camp surface. In six camps selected in Asia and Africa, between 1992 and 1994, population figures were estimated within one to two days. After measuring all external limits, surfaces were calculated and ranged between 121,300 and 2,770,000 square metres. In five camps, the mean average population per square was obtained using blocks 25 by 25 meters (625 m2), and for another camp with blocks 100 by 100 m2. In three camps, different population density zones were defined. Total camp populations obtained were 16,800 to 113,600. Although this method is a valuable public health tool in emergency situations, it has several limitations. Issues related to population density and number and size of blocks to be selected require further research for the method to be better validated.     

Shoreline management and its implications for coastal processes in the eastern part of the Rhône delta

The coastal fringe of the eastern part of the Rhône delta is a large area where activities related to ecological and economical interests have increased since the beginning of the century, including the salt industry of theCompagnie des Salins du Midi et des Salines de l’Est, the industrial complex ofFos-sur-Mer, tourism managed by the local authorities ofPort-Saint-Louis andArles, and dune restoration of the La Gracieuse spit undertaken by thePort Autonome de Marseille. The vulnerability of the area for changes brought about by these activities is linked to the extent of several coastal changes, whereas these changes are related to the physical functioning of the coastal fringe, such as coastal processes, but also to external components such as relative sea-level rise, subsidence, reduction of sediment input, human impact, etc. For many decades, coastline ‘protection’ in the eastern part of the Rhône delta has been undertaken to withstand erosional processes that offset beaches and retreat of the littoral. The use of different engineering structures illustrates the heterogeneity and differences in age of the various management policies. At the eastern side of the Rhône, thePort Autonome de Marseille, dealing with management, has opted for soft engineering structures using fences for dune restoration on the La Gracieuse spit. At the western side of the mouth, theCompagnie des Salins du Midi et des Salines de l’Est has been using hard engineering structures to combat erosion (rocks, groins, tetrapods, etc.). A brief assessment of the management efficiency is presented, including an analysis of the data collected concerning the survey of the zones where the structures were built. Their varying efficiency shows the important role played by the sediment supply to the littoral (solid river discharge) and the coastal hydro-sedimentary processes. In the eastern part of the Rhône river the success of the dune restoration is mainly due to the important sediment supply transported in this area by eastern drift currents. At the western part of the mouth, the decrease of sediment supply linked to erosional processes in the shallow off-shore beach has made the structures more vulnerable, and therefore, the activities of the salt industry. For this last threatened zone, three management scenarios are discussed by taking into account economical, physical and ecological parameters.     

Tolerance of Japanese knotweed <Emphasis Type="Italic">s</Emphasis>.<Emphasis Type="Italic">l</Emphasis>. to soil artificial polymetallic pollution: early metabolic responses and performance during vegetative multiplication

The expansion of invasive Japanese knotweed s.l. is of particular concern because of its aptitudes to rapidly colonize diverse environments, especially anthropized habitats generally characterized by their pollution with heavy metals. Whether the presence of heavy metals impacts the performance traits of this plant is a central question to better understand its invasive properties, though no controlled approach to assess these effects was yet reported. In this aim, we undertook greenhouse experiments where rhizome fragments of Japanese knotweed s.l. (Fallopia japonica and Fallopia × bohemica) were grown during 1 and 3 months, in a soil pot artificially polluted or not with heavy metals added in mixture (Cd, Cr, Pb, Zn). Our results showed that (i) the presence of heavy metals delayed rhizome regeneration and induced lowered plant part weights but did not affect plant height after 3 months; (ii) the effect of metals on the metabolic profiles of belowground part extracts was only detectable after 1 month and not after 3 months of growth, though it was possible to highlight the effect of metals independently of time and genotype for root extracts, and torosachrysone seemed to be the most induced compound; and (iii) the hybrid genotype tested was able to accumulate relatively high concentrations of metals, over or close to the highest reported ones for this plant for Cr, Cd and Zn, whereas Pb was not accumulated. These findings evidence that the presence of heavy metals in soil has a low impact on Fallopia sp. overall performance traits during rhizome regeneration, and has a rather stimulating effect on plant growth depending on pollution level.     

Simultaneous voltammetric determination of four triazine herbicides in water samples with the aid of chemometrics

A novel differential pulse voltammetry (DPV) method was developed for the simultaneous analysis of herbicides in water. A mixture of four herbicides, atrazine, simazine, propazine and terbuthylazine was analyzed simultaneously and the complex, overlapping DPV voltammograms were resolved by several chemometrics methods such as partial least squares (PLS), principal component regression (PCR) and principal component–artificial networks (PC–ANN). The complex profiles of the voltammograms collected from a synthetic set of samples were best resolved with the use of the PC–ANN method, and the best predictions of the concentrations of the analytes were obtained with the PC-ANN model (%RPE_T = 6.1 and average %Recovery = 99.0). The new method was also used for analysis of real samples, and the obtained results were compared well with those from the GC-MS technique. Such conclusions suggest that the novel method is a viable alternative to the other commonly used methods such as GC, HPLC and GC-MS.     

Thermophilic adaptation of a mesophilic anaerobic sludge for food waste treatment

As opposed to mesophilic, thermophilic anaerobic digestion of food waste can increase the biogas output of reactors. To facilitate the transition of anaerobic digesters, this paper investigated the impact of adapting mesophilic sludge to thermophilic conditions. A 5L bench scale reactor was seeded with mesophilic granular sludge obtained from an up-flow anaerobic sludge blanket digester. After 13 days of operation at 35 degrees C, the reactor temperature was instantaneously increased to 55 degrees C and operated at this temperature until day 21. The biomass was then fed food waste on days 21, 42 and 63, each time with an F/M (Food/Microorganism) ratio increasing from 0.12 to 4.43 gVS/gVSS. Sludge samples were collected on days 0, 21, 42 and 63 to conduct substrate activity tests, and reactor biogas production was monitored during the full experimental period. The sludge collected on day 21 demonstrated that the abrupt temperature change had no pasteurization effect, but rather lead to a biomass with a fermentative activity of 3.58 g Glucose/gVSS/d and a methanogenic activity of 0.47 and 0.26 g Substrate/gVSS/d, related respectively, to acetoclastic and hydrogenophilic microorganisms. At 55 degrees C, an ultimate gas production (Go) and a biodegradation potential (Bo) of 0.2-1.4 L(STP)/gVS(fed) and of 0.1-0.84 L(STP) CH(4)/gVS(fed) were obtained, respectively. For the treatment of food waste, a fully adapted inoculum was developed by eliminating the initial time-consuming acclimatization stage from mesophilic to thermophilic conditions. The feeding stage was initiated within 20 days, but to increase the population of thermophilic methanogenic microorganisms, a substrate supply program must be carefully observed.     

Enhanced phytoremediation: A study of mycorrhizoremediation of heavy metal–contaminated soil

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) are microscopic fungi that occur naturally in soil and form a symbiosis with plant roots. By colonizing the roots, the fungus increases plant growth by making soil essential elements like zinc and phosphorus more accessible. AMF can play a role in the phytoremediation of heavy metal–contaminated soil (mycorrhizoremediation). Two research experiments were conducted to evaluate the impact of AMF on the extraction of different heavy metals (arsenic, cadmium, lead, selenium, and zinc) in contaminated soil. A grass mixture composed of Festuca rubra, Festuca eliator, Agropyron repens, and Trifolium repens was used in the experiments, and four different types of AMF were investigated: Glomus intraradices, Glomus mosseae, Glomus etunicatum, and Gigaspora gigantea. The results of the study showed that heavy metal extraction by Glomus intraradices colonized plants was the highest of all four AMF tested and was generally higher than nonmycorrhizal plants, depending on the heavy metal concentration in soil and whether it interacted with other metals in soil. However, metal extraction by AMF colonized grasses reached a plateau after an approximately two‐month period showing no further phytoaccumulation. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Down syndrome maternal serum marker screening after 18 weeks' gestation

Women having access to prenatal care late in pregnancy may still wish to benefit from maternal serum screening for Down syndrome. Therefore, we established reference values for α-feto protein (AFP) and free β-human chorionic gonadotrophin (β-hCG), and assessed the diagnostic value of maternal serum marker screening at 18–35 weeks' gestation based upon a series of 4072 sera from unaffected pregnancies and 118 sera from pregnant women with fetuses affected by Down syndrome. Using a 1/250 risk cut-off, a detection rate of 72.9% (95% CI = 71.5–74.3%) was achieved with a false-positive rate of 7.51% (95% CI = 6.71–8.3%). This was not significantly different from the percentages observed in our 14–17 weeks routine screening (50 596 patients): 71.9% (95% CI = 71.5–72.3%) and 6.48% (95% CI = 6.28–6.68%), respectively. Detection and screen-positive rates were, respectively, 51.3% (95% CI = 35.6–67.0%) and 5.95% (95% CI = 5.12–6.68%) in women aunder 35 years of age, and 84.8% (95% CI = 76.9–92.7%) and 24% (95% CI = 20.7–27.3%) in women aged 35 years and over. In conclusion, maternal serum marker screening is feasible at 18 weeks' gestation and later, which may be of interest in selected cases. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fetal intestinal microvilli in human amniotic fluid

The intestinal microvilli of fetal origin in human amniotic fluid were purified by Ca²⁺ precipitation of contaminating organelles followed by differential centrifugation of microvillar membranes. In the purified preparation, the specific activity of the microvillar marker-enzymes maltase and sucrase increased about 77-fold over that in cell-free amniotic fluid. Significant contamination of the purified preparation by endoplasmic reticulum (microsomes) and lysosomes was ruled out on the basis of a low content of the marker enzymes glucose-6-phosphatase (microsomes) and acid phosphatase (lysosomes). Amniotic fluid microvilli contain typical enzymes of the fetal intestine including maltase, sucrase, trehalase, alkaline phosphatase and γ-glutamyltransferase, and their morphology by electron microscopy resembles that of vesiculated intestinal microvilli. Prenatal detection of genetic diseases due to a deficiency of a protein expressed in these membranes or associated to abnormal microvilli seems feasible.