Spatial Validation of Land Use Change Models Using Multiple Assessment Techniques: A Case Study of Transition Potential Models

Using land use and cover change (LUCC) models for the urban growth planning, environmental assessment, and decision-making needs the establishment of an appropriate level of confidence in their performance. The objective of this research is to explore the importance of using multiple assessment techniques in order to fairly evaluate the performance of land use models. An application is conducted by using the Land Change Modeler for Ecological Sustainability (LCM) which is an empirical and transition potential model. LCM is applied to model the agricultural to developed areas transition in Rennes metropolitan area (France). The land demand is estimated using the Markov Chain model; whereas, the transition potential map is implemented using the Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network (MLP) method based on historical changes and driving variables. The model performance is assessed based on a variety of the most commonly used validation techniques. At the study area level, the correctness and disagreement analysis shows that LCM performs better at predicting the amount than the allocation of developed areas. Additionally, landscape metrics reveal that LCM tends to predict a fragmented urban form, which seems evident because of the large number of the individual urban patches. At the municipality level, the error budget analysis shows that the model performance, which varies highly between different subareas, needs to be improved. Moreover, the cross-tabulation between the transition potential map and both the observed and the predicted agricultural to developed areas transitions reveals that the order of the transition potential values does not perfectly fit the observed change; whereas, the predicted change is not solely limited to areas with high potential.     

Feasibility of mercury removal from simulated flue gas by activated chars made from poultry manures

Increased emphasis on reduction of mercury emissions from coal fired electric power plants has resulted in environmental regulations that may in the future require application of activated carbons as mercury sorbents for mercury removal. At the same time, the quantity of poultry manure generated each year is large and technologies that take advantage of the material should be explored. The purpose of the work was to obtain preliminary data to investigate if activated chars made from different poultry manures could adsorb mercury from simulated flue gas. In laboratory experiments, activated chars made from chicken cake and litter removed mercury from the gas as well as a commercial alternative. It was also found that acid-washing these chars after activation may improve pore structure but does not influence the mercury removal efficiency. Activated chars were also made from turkey cake and litter. These raw materials produced activated chars with similar pore structure as those made from chicken manure, but they did not adsorb mercury as well. Acid-washing the turkey manure-based chars improved their performance, but this step would add to the cost of production. Preliminary evaluations suggest that unwashed activated chars may cost as little as $0.95/kg to produce.     

How Should Support for Climate-Friendly Technologies Be Designed?

Stabilizing global greenhouse gas concentrations at levels to avoid significant climate risks will require massive “decarbonization” of all the major economies over the next few decades, in addition to the reduced emissions from other GHGs and carbon sequestration. Achieving the necessary scale of emissions reductions will require a multifaceted policy effort to support a broad array of technological and behavioral changes. Change on this scale will require sound, well-thought-out strategies. In this article, we outline some core principles, drawn from recent social science research, for guiding the design of clean technology policies, with a focus on energy. The market should be encouraged to make good choices: pricing carbon emissions and other environmental damage, removing distorting subsidies and barriers to competition, and supporting RD&D broadly. More specific policies are required to address particular market failures and barriers. For those technologies identified as being particularly desirable, some narrower RD&D policies are available.     

Gene-TEQ--a standardized comparative assessment of effects in the comet assay using genotoxicity equivalents

Existing methods for the comparison of genotoxic effects in the comet assay bear considerable disadvantages such as the problem to link information about concentration dependence and severity of effects. Moreover, given the lack of standardized protocols and the use of various standards, it may be extremely difficult to compare different studies. In order to provide a method for standardized comparative assessment of genotoxic effects, the concept of genotoxicity equivalents (Gene-TEQ) was developed. As potential reference compounds for genotoxic effects, three directly acting (N-methyl-N'-nitro-N-nitrosoguanidine (MNNG), methyl-methanesulfonate, and N-methyl-N-nitrosourea) and three indirectly acting (cyclophosphamide, dimethylnitrosamine, and 4-nitroquinoline-oxide) genotoxic substances were compared with respect to their cytotoxic (neutral red) and genotoxic (comet assay) concentration-response profiles in the permanent fish cell line RTL-W1. For further comparison, two sediment extracts from the upper Danube River were investigated as environmental samples. Based on the results of cytotoxicity and genotoxicity testing, MNNG was selected as the reference compound. At several exposure levels and durations, genotoxic effects of both the other pure substances and the environmental samples were calculated as percentages of the maximum MNNG effect and related to the absolute MNNG effect (EC values). Thus, genotoxicity equivalent factors (Gene-TEQs) relative to MNNG could be calculated. Gene-TEQs can easily be applied to pure substances, mixtures and field samples to provide information about their toxicity relative to the reference compound. Furthermore, the Gene-TEQ concept allows a direct comparison of environmental samples from different laboratories.     

Characterizing sources of nitrate leaching from an irrigated dairy farm in Merced County, California

Dairy farms comprise a complex landscape of groundwater pollution sources. The objective of our work is to develop a method to quantify nitrate leaching to shallow groundwater from different management units at dairy farms. Total nitrate loads are determined by the sequential calibration of a sub-regional scale and a farm-scale three-dimensional groundwater flow and transport model using observations at different spatial scales. These observations include local measurements of groundwater heads and nitrate concentrations in an extensive monitoring well network, providing data at a scale of a few meters and measurements of discharge rates and nitrate concentrations in a tile-drain network, providing data integrated across multiple farms. The various measurement scales are different from the spatial scales of the calibration parameters, which are the recharge and nitrogen leaching rates from individual management units. The calibration procedure offers a conceptual framework for using field measurements at different spatial scales to estimate recharge N concentrations at the management unit scale. It provides a map of spatially varying dairy farming impact on groundwater nitrogen. The method is applied to a dairy farm located in a relatively vulnerable hydrogeologic region in California. Potential sources within the dairy farm are divided into three categories, representing different manure management units: animal exercise yards and feeding areas (corrals), liquid manure holding ponds, and manure irrigated forage fields. Estimated average nitrogen leaching is 872 kg/ha/year, 807 kg/ha/year and 486 kg/ha/year for corrals, ponds and fields respectively. Results are applied to evaluate the accuracy of nitrogen mass balances often used by regulatory agencies to assess groundwater impacts. Calibrated leaching rates compare favorably to field and farm scale nitrogen mass balances. These data and interpretations provide a basis for developing improved management strategies.     

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon contamination in stormwater detention pond sediments in coastal South Carolina

The purpose of this study was to characterize the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) contamination in the sediments of stormwater detention ponds in coastal South Carolina. Levels of the sum of PAH analytes were significantly higher in the sediments of commercial ponds compared to that of reference, golf course, low-density residential, and high-density residential ponds. Isomer ratio analysis suggested that the predominant source of PAHs were pyrogenic; however, many ponds had a PAH signature consistent with mixed uncombusted and combusted PAH sources. PAH levels in these sediments could be modeled using both pond drainage area and pond surface area. These results demonstrate that the sediment from most commercial ponds, and a few residential and golf course ponds, were moderately contaminated with PAHs. PAH levels in these contaminated ponds exceeded between 42% and 75% of the ecological screening values for individual PAH analytes established by US EPA Region IV, suggesting that they may pose a toxicological risk to wildlife.     

Human impacts on fire occurrence: a case study of hundred years of forest fires in a dry alpine valley in Switzerland

Forest fire regimes are sensitive to alterations of climate, fuel load, and ignition sources. We investigated the impact of human activities and climate on fire occurrence in a dry continental valley of the Swiss Alps (Valais) by relating fire occurrence to population and road density, biomass removal by livestock grazing and wood harvest, temperature and precipitation in two distinct periods (1904–1955 and 1956–2006) using generalized additive modeling. This study provides evidence for the role played by humans and temperature in shaping fire occurrence. The existence of ignition sources promotes fire occurrence to a certain extent only; for example, high road density tends to be related to fewer fires. Changes in forest uses within the study region seem to be particularly important. Fire occurrence appears to have been negatively associated with livestock pasturing in the forest and wood harvesting, in particular during the period 1904–1955. This study illustrates consistently how fire occurrence has been influenced by land use and socioeconomic conditions. It also suggests that there is no straightforward linear relationship between human factors and fire occurrence.     

Stable isotope signatures for characterising the biological stability of landfilled municipal solid waste

Stable isotopic signatures of landfill leachates are influenced by processes within municipal solid waste (MSW) landfills mainly depending on the aerobic/anaerobic phase of the landfill. We investigated the isotopic signatures of δ¹³C, δ²H and δ¹⁸O of different leachates from lab-scale experiments, lysimeter experiments and a landfill under in situ aeration. In the laboratory, columns filled with MSW of different age and reactivity were percolated under aerobic and anaerobic conditions. In landfill simulation reactors, waste of a 25 year old landfill was kept under aerobic and anaerobic conditions. The lysimeter facility was filled with mechanically shredded fresh waste. After starting of the methane production the waste in the lysimeter containments was aerated in situ. Leachate and gas composition were monitored continuously. In addition the seepage water of an old landfill was collected and analysed periodically before and during an in situ aeration.We found significant differences in the δ¹³C-value of the dissolved inorganic carbon (δ¹³C-DIC) of the leachate between aerobic and anaerobic waste material. During aerobic degradation, the signature of δ¹³C-DIC was mainly dependent on the isotopic composition of the organic matter in the waste, resulting in a δ¹³C-DIC of ?20‰ to ?25‰. The production of methane under anaerobic conditions caused an increase in δ¹³C-DIC up to values of +10‰ and higher depending on the actual reactivity of the MSW. During aeration of a landfill the aerobic degradation of the remaining organic matter caused a decrease to a δ¹³C-DIC of about ?20‰. Therefore carbon isotope analysis in leachates and groundwater can be used for tracing the oxidation–reduction status of MSW landfills.Our results indicate that monitoring of stable isotopic signatures of landfill leachates over a longer time period (e.g. during in situ aeration) is a powerful and cost-effective tool for characterising the biodegradability and stability of the organic matter in landfilled municipal solid waste and can be used for monitoring the progress of in situ aeration.