SHOULD DAMS BE MODIFIED FOR THE PROBABLE MAXIMUM FLOOD?1

ABSTRACT: The probable maximum flood (PMF) currently serves as the design standard for many U.S. dams. Floods used for design have increased and currently thousands of dams in the U.S. would be overtopped and possibly fail using the latest calculated PMF at each dam site. Some researchers have suggested that modifying dams to accommodate the PMF could be wasteful. Objections to using the PMF for dam modification include: (1) larger spillway capacity may increase annual downstream flood losses, (2) benefit‐cost ratios may be low, (3) construction accidents associated with dam modification may cause fatalities, and (4) the dollar amount spent to save lives by making dams safer is often very high. Based on these objections, a procedure is presented for evaluating the effectiveness of a proposed dam modification. A change in spillway design policy is recommended. Accepting the status quo at a dam that cannot accommodate the PMF may be the best course of action.     

ENHANCEMENTS OF NONPOINT SOURCE MONITORING OF VOLATILE ORGANIC COMPOUNDS IN GROUND WATER1

ABSTRACT: The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has compiled a national retrospective data set of analyses of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in ground water of the United States. The data are from Federal, State, and local nonpoint‐source monitoring programs, collected between 1985–95. This data set is being used to augment data collected by the USGS National Water‐Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program to ascertain the occurrence of VOCs in ground water nationwide. Eleven attributes of the retrospective data set were evaluated to determine the suitability of the data to augment NAWQA data in answering occurrence questions of varying complexity. These 11 attributes are the VOC analyte list and the associated reporting levels for each VOC, well type, well‐casing material, type of openings in the interval (screened interval or open hole), well depth, depth to the top and bottom of the open interval(s), depth to water level in the well, aquifer type (confined or unconfined), and aquifer lithology. VOCs frequently analyzed included solvents, industrial reagents, and refrigerants, but other VOCs of current interest were not frequently analyzed. About 70 percent of the sampled wells have the type of well documented in the data set, and about 74 percent have well depth documented. However, the data set generally lacks documentation of other characteristics, such as well‐casing material, information about the screened or open interval(s), depth to water level in the well, and aquifer type and lithology. For example, only about 20 percent of the wells include information on depth to water level in the well and only about 14 percent of the wells include information about aquifer type. The three most important enhancements to VOC data collected in nonpoint‐source monitoring programs for use in a national assessment of VOC occurrence in ground water would be an expanded VOC analyte list, recording the reporting level for each analyte for every analysis, and recording key ancillary information about each well. These enhancements would greatly increase the usefulness of VOC data in addressing complex occurrence questions, such as those that seek to explain the reasons for VOC occurrence and nonoccurrence in ground water of the United States.     

OPTIMIZATION OF INTERMITTENT PUMPING SCHEDULES FOR AQUIFER REMEDIATION USING A GENETIC ALGORITHM1

ABSTRACT: Using a genetic algorithm (GA), optimal intermittent pumping schedules were established to simulate pump‐and‐treat remediation of a contaminated aquifer with known hydraulic limitations and a water miscible contaminant, located within the Duke Forest in Durham, North Carolina. The objectives of the optimization model were to minimize total costs, minimize health risks, and maximize the amount of contaminant removed from the aquifer. Stochastic ground water and contaminant transport models were required to provide estimates of contaminant concentrations at pumping wells. Optimization model simulations defined a tradeoff curve between the pumping cost and the amount of contaminant extracted from the aquifer. For this specific aquifer/miscible contaminant combination, the model simulations indicated that pump‐and‐treat remediation using intermittent pumping schedules for each pumping well produced significant reductions in predicted contaminant concentrations and associated health risks at a reasonable cost, after a remediation time of two years.     

Effects of age and sex ratios on offspring recruitment rates in translocated black rhinoceros

Success of animal translocations depends on improving postrelease demographic rates toward establishment and subsequent growth of released populations. Short‐term metrics for evaluating translocation success and its drivers, like postrelease survival and fecundity, are unlikely to represent longer‐term outcomes. We used information theory to investigate 25 years of data on black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis) translocations. We used the offspring recruitment rate (ORR) of translocated females—a metric integrating survival, fecundity, and offspring recruitment at sexual maturity—to detect determinants of success. Our unambiguously best model (AICω = 0.986) predicted that ORR increases with female age at release as a function of lower postrelease adult rhinoceros sex ratio (males:females). Delay of first postrelease reproduction and failure of some females to recruit any calves to sexual maturity most influenced the pattern of ORRs, and the leading causes of recruitment failure were postrelease female death (23% of all females) and failure to calve (24% of surviving females). We recommend translocating older females (≥6 years old) because they do not exhibit the reproductive delay and low ORRs of juveniles (<4 years old) or the higher rates of recruitment failure of juveniles and young adults (4–5.9 years old). Where translocation of juveniles is necessary, they should be released into female‐biased populations, where they have higher ORRs. Our study offers the unique advantage of a long‐term analysis across a large number of replicate populations—a science‐by‐management experiment as a proxy for a manipulative experiment, and a rare opportunity, particularly for a large, critically endangered taxon such as the black rhinoceros. Our findings differ from previous recommendations, reinforce the importance of long‐term data sets and comprehensive metrics of translocation success, and suggest attention be shifted from ecological to social constraints on population growth and species recovery, particularly when translocating species with polygynous breeding systems.     

Mineral development prospects of the Indochina area

Reform is under way in several nations within the Indochina area to stimulate economic growth and foreign investment. Though once forbidden, participation by foreign companies in mining exploration and development activities in Myanmar, Kampuchea, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam is now being solicited by the respective governments. This paper presents a preliminary evaluation of mineral and energy resources in the region and outlines possible development scenarios based on economic policies, financial and infrastructural constraints and industry interest. The investment climates for resource-related projects are assessed qualitatively by country. Clearly, the long-term development potential of mineral and energy resources in the Indochina area is large, and the potential gains outweigh any of today's problems.     

HYDROLOGICAL ASPECTS OF THE 1988 DROUGHT IN ILLINOIS1

ABSTRACT: Drought is evaluated in terms of the magnitude and duration of the 1988 spring and summer precipitation shortfall, and according to various components of the hydrologic budget, both surface and sub-surface. The response time of some of these components is investigated, relative to the time of precipitation. Individual water users perceived a beginning and ending of the drought at different times relative to their activities. Some statistics better describe some components of a drought to some users, and better answer some questions, than do others.     

Impact of engine lubricant properties on regulated gaseous emissions of 2000-2001 model-year gasoline vehicles

The impact of the sulfur (S) content in lubricating oil was evaluated for four ultra-low-emission vehicles and two super-ultra-low-emission vehicles, all with low mileage. The S content in the lube oils ranged from 0.01 to 0.76%, while the S content of the gasoline was fixed at 0.2 ppmw. Vehicles were configured with aged catalysts and tested over the Federal Test Procedure, at idle and at 50-mph cruise conditions. In all testing modes, variations in the S level of the lubricant did not significantly affect the regulated gas-phase tailpipe emissions. In addition to the regulated gas-phase emissions, a key element of the research was measuring the engine-out sulfur dioxide (SO2) in near-real-time. This research used a new methodology based on a differential optical absorption spectrometer (DOAS) to measure SO2 from the lubricants used in this study. With the DOAS, the contribution of SO2 emissions for the highest-S lubricant was found to range from less than 1 to 6 ppm on a gasoline S equivalent basis over the range of vehicles and test cycles used. The development and operation of the DOAS is discussed in this paper.     

Nitrogen trace gas emissions from a riparian ecosystem in southern Appalachia

In this paper, we present two years of seasonal nitric oxide (NO), ammonia (NH₃), and nitrous oxide (N₂O) trace gas fluxes measured in a recovering riparian zone with cattle excluded and adjacent riparian zone grazed by cattle. In the recovering riparian zone, average NO, NH₃, and N₂O fluxes were 5.8, 2.0, and 76.7 ng N m⁻² s⁻¹ (1.83, 0.63, and 24.19 kg N ha⁻¹ y⁻¹), respectively. Fluxes in the grazed riparian zone were larger, especially for NO and NH₃, measuring 9.1, 4.3, and 77.6 ng N m⁻² s⁻¹ (2.87, 1.35, and 24.50 kg N ha⁻¹ y⁻¹) for NO, NH₃, and N₂O, respectively. On average, N₂O accounted for greater than 85% of total trace gas flux in both the recovering and grazed riparian zones, though N₂O fluxes were highly variable temporally. In the recovering riparian zone, variability in seasonal average fluxes was explained by variability in soil nitrogen (N) concentrations. Nitric oxide flux was positively correlated with soil ammonium (NH₄⁺) concentration, while N₂O flux was positively correlated with soil nitrate (NO₃⁻) concentration. Ammonia flux was positively correlated with the ratio of NH₄⁺ to NO₃⁻. In the grazed riparian zone, average NH₃ and N₂O fluxes were not correlated with soil temperature, N concentrations, or moisture. This was likely due to high variability in soil microsite conditions related to cattle effects such as compaction and N input. Nitric oxide flux in the grazed riparian zone was positively correlated with soil temperature and NO₃⁻ concentration. Restoration appeared to significantly affect NO flux, which increased ≈600% during the first year following restoration and decreased during the second year to levels encountered at the onset of restoration. By comparing the ratio of total trace gas flux to soil N concentration, we show that the restored riparian zone is likely more efficient than the grazed riparian zone at diverting upper-soil N from the receiving stream to the atmosphere. This is likely due to the recovery of microbiological communities following changes in soil physical characteristics.