Planning for ex situ conservation in the face of uncertainty

Ex situ conservation strategies for threatened species often require long‐term commitment and financial investment to achieve management objectives. We present a framework that considers the decision to adopt ex situ management for a target species as the end point of several linked decisions. We used a decision tree to intuitively represent the logical sequence of decision making. The first decision is to identify the specific management actions most likely to achieve the fundamental objectives of the recovery plan, with or without the use of ex‐situ populations. Once this decision has been made, one decides whether to establish an ex situ population, accounting for the probability of success in the initial phase of the recovery plan, for example, the probability of successful breeding in captivity. Approaching these decisions in the reverse order (attempting to establish an ex situ population before its purpose is clearly defined) can lead to a poor allocation of resources, because it may restrict the range of available decisions in the second stage. We applied our decision framework to the recovery program for the threatened spotted tree frog (Litoria spenceri) of southeastern Australia. Across a range of possible management actions, only those including ex situ management were expected to provide >50% probability of the species’ persistence, but these actions cost more than use of in situ alternatives only. The expected benefits of ex situ actions were predicted to be offset by additional uncertainty and stochasticity associated with establishing and maintaining ex situ populations. Naïvely implementing ex situ conservation strategies can lead to inefficient management. Our framework may help managers explicitly evaluate objectives, management options, and the probability of success prior to establishing a captive colony of any given species.     

Integrating archaeology and ancient DNA analysis to address invasive species colonization in the Gulf of Alaska

The intentional and unintentional movement of plants and animals by humans has transformed ecosystems and landscapes globally. Assessing when and how a species was introduced are central to managing these transformed landscapes, particularly in island environments. In the Gulf of Alaska, there is considerable interest in the history of mammal introductions and rehabilitating Gulf of Alaska island environments by eradicating mammals classified as invasive species. The Arctic ground squirrel (Urocitellus parryii) is of concern because it affects vegetation and seabirds on Gulf of Alaska islands. This animal is assumed to have been introduced by historic settlers; however, ground squirrel remains in the prehistoric archaeological record of Chirikof Island, Alaska, challenge this timeline and suggest they colonized the islands long ago. We used 3 lines of evidence to address this problem: direct radiocarbon dating of archaeological squirrel remains; evidence of prehistoric human use of squirrels; and ancient DNA analysis of dated squirrel remains. Chirikof squirrels dated to at least 2000 years ago, and cut marks on squirrel bones suggested prehistoric use by people. Ancient squirrels also shared a mitochondrial haplotype with modern Chirikof squirrels. These results suggest that squirrels have been on Chirikof longer than previously assumed and that the current population of squirrels is closely related to the ancient population. Thus, it appears ground squirrels are not a recent, human‐mediated introduction and may have colonized the island via a natural dispersal event or an ancient human translocation.     

Epidemiology of tornado destruction in rural northern Bangladesh: risk factors for death and injury

The epidemiology of tornado-related disasters in the developing world is poorly understood. An August 2005 post-tornado cohort study in rural Bangladesh identified elevated levels of death and injury among the elderly (≥ 60 years of age) (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 8.9 (95 per cent confidence interval (CI): 3.9-20.2) and AOR = 1.6 (95 per cent CI: 1.4-1.8), respectively), as compared to 15-24 year-olds, and among those outdoors versus indoors during the tornado (AOR = 10.4 (95 per cent CI: 5.5-19.9) and AOR = 6.6 (95 per cent CI: 5.8-7.5), respectively). Females were 1.24 times (95 per cent CI: 1.15-1.33) more likely to be injured than males. Elevated risk of injury was significantly associated with structural damage to the house and tin construction materials. Seeking treatment was protective against death among the injured, odds ratio = 0.08 (95 per cent CI: 0.03-0.21). Further research is needed to develop injury prevention strategies and to address disparities in risk between age groups and between men and women.     

Observations on the food of Antedon bifida (Echinodermata: Crinoidea)

The gut contents of specimens of the temperate crinoid Antedon bifida (Pennant) were collected from Dalkey, County Dublin, at monthly intervals for 1 yr, and occasionally from other areas around the Irish coast. Quantitative analysis showed the main components to be detritus (65%), plankton (18%) and inorganic particles (17%). This composition was remarkably constant throughout the year and at all locations, the main variation being in the plankton which was at a minimum in February (4%) and reached a maximum in August (36%). Food particle collection appeared to be nonselective within the appropriate size group, the essential feature of a particle being that it would fit into the ambulacral groove. Fragile planktonic diatoms and dinoflagellates, which occurred in blooms in summer and autumn, were digested by A. bifida, but more robust diatoms passed intact through the gut. Histochemical investigations indicate that the bulk of the detritus is refractory, and it is suggested that its associated micro-flora and micro-fauna may be a major source of nutriment for this crinoid.     

Patterns in reproductive dynamics of burrowing ghost shrimp Trypaea australiensis from small to intermediate scales

Many studies have examined latitudinal differences in reproduction of marine invertebrates, but few have measured variation at small to intermediate scales (kilometres to hundreds of kilometres), which may confound comparisons across broader geographic regions. Here, we examined variation in the reproductive biology of a little-studied species of burrowing ghost shrimp (Trypaea australiensis) at spatial scales ranging from km (between sites within estuaries) to 100s of km (among estuaries), over a 2-year period in south-eastern Australia. Sex ratios of populations were consistently biased towards females through time and space. Although reproduction started in summer months across all spatial scales, there was a pattern of earlier spawning from southern to northern estuaries. Integration of results from previous studies of T. australiensis supported a similar pattern of earlier breeding from high to low latitudes. Fecundity of shrimp increased linearly with female size, but the relationship varied inconsistently across the different spatial scales. Similarly, sizes at maturity varied from small to intermediate scales and observed patterns were not consistent with general predictions e.g. shrimp were smaller and ovigerous at smaller sizes at sites in the southern-most estuary, compared to estuaries further north. We found no differences in the sizes of embryos across the different spatial scales, but confirm that T. australiensis employs a strategy of high fecundity and small embryo size compared to other thalassinidean shrimp. Our results suggest that factors at smaller scales (e.g. food availability) may be important in affecting reproductive dynamics of T. australiensis, but further research is needed in testing hypotheses about patterns observed here. A lack of similar studies on other marine organisms remains an impediment to understanding life-history strategies and the sustainable management and conservation of populations.     

西北大学重视减灾人才培养

西北大学是一所具有百年历史的综合大学。该校根据“百年大计、教育为本”和“减灾始于学校”的要求,重视防灾减灾人才培养。在亚洲备灾中心和国家有关部门的指导下,学校设立了“中国西部综合减灾与公共安全研究中心”,积极为陕西和西部各省区防灾减灾事业提供科技智力支     

Prediction of contaminant transport in fractured carbonate aquifer types: a case study of the Permian Magnesian Limestone Group (NE England,UK)

Viruses and bacteria which are characterized by finite lives in the subsurface are rapidly transported via fractures and cavities in fractured and karst aquifers. Here, we demonstrate how the coupling of a robust outcrop characterization and hydrogeophysical borehole testing is essential for prediction of contaminant velocities and hence wellhead protection areas. To show this, we use the dolostones of the Permian Magnesian Limestone aquifer in NE England, where we incorporated such information in a groundwater flow and particle tracking model. Within this aquifer, flow in relatively narrow (mechanical aperture of ~?10^?1–1 mm) fractures is coupled with that in pipe cavities (~?0.20-m diameter) following normal faults. Karstic cavities and narrow fractures are hydraulically very different. Thus, the solutional features are represented within the model by a pipe network (which accounts for turbulence) embedded within an equivalent porous medium representing Darcian flowing fractures. Incorporation of fault conduits in a groundwater model shows that they strongly influence particle tracking results. Despite this, away from faulted areas, the effective flow porosity of the equivalent porous medium remains a crucial parameter. Here, we recommend as most appropriate a relatively low value of effective porosity (of 2.8?×?10^?4) based on borehole hydrogeophysical testing. This contrasts with earlier studies using particle tracking analyses on analogous carbonate aquifers, which used much higher values of effective porosity, typically ~?10² times higher than our value, resulting in highly non-conservative estimates of aquifer vulnerability. Low values of effective flow porosities yield modelled flow velocities ranging from ~?100 up to ~?500 m/day in un-faulted areas. However, the high fracturing density and presence of karstic cavities yield modelled flow velocities up to ~?9000 m/day in fault zones. The combination of such flow velocities along particle traces results in 400-day particle traces up to 8-km length, implying the need for large well protection areas and high aquifer vulnerability to slowly degrading contaminants.