Paper recycling and social policy

This paper examines the problems and operation of waste paper recycling in the UK. Long- and short-term forecasts for demand are developed, showing demand strongly correlated with Gross Domestic Product. These are used to simulate a buffer stock scheme and establish costs for operating such a scheme. The authors conclude, given that the only large source of waste paper not fully exploited is the householder, then grants for developing waste upgrading technologies are likely to be more effective than buffer stock schemes.     

Statistical methods for forecasting daily snow depths and assessing trends in inter-annual snow depth dynamics

Environmental and Ecological Statistics - This paper introduces a time-varying parameter regression model for modeling, forecasting, and assessing inter-annual trends in daily snow depths. The...     

Methane emissions from grazing cattle using point-source dispersion

The ability to accurately measure greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is essential to gauge our ability to reduce these emissions. Enteric methane from ruminants is an important but often difficult source to quantify since it depends on the amount and type of feed intake. Unfortunately, many of the available measurement techniques for estimating enteric methane emissions can impose a change in feed intake. Our study evaluates a nonintrusive technique that uses a novel approach (point-source dispersion with multiple open-path concentrations) to calculate enteric methane emissions from grazing cattle, reported as the major source of GHG in many countries, particularly Australia. A scanner with a mounted open-path laser was used to measure methane concentration across five paths above a paddock containing 18 grazing cattle over 16 d. These data were used along with wind statistics in a dispersion model (WindTrax) to estimate an average herd methane emission rate over 10-mm intervals. Enteric methane emissions from the herd grazing a combination of Rhodes grass (Chlotis gayana Kunth) and Leucaena [Leucaena leucocephala (Lam.)] averaged (+/- SD) 141 (+/- 147) g animal(-1) d(-1). In a release-recovery experiment, the technique accounted for 77% of the released methane at a single point. Our study shows the technique generates more reliable methane emissions during daytime (unstable stratification).     

Mechanistic Virtual Modeling: Coupling a Plant Simulation Model with a Three-dimensional Plant Architecture Component

The aim of this research is to integrate plant architectural modeling or “visualization modeling” and “mechanistic” or physiologically based modeling to describe how a real plant functions using a virtual crop. Virtual crops are life-like computer representations of crops based on individual plants and including the representation of the substrate on which the plants grow. The integration of a three-dimensional expression and the mechanistic model of plant development and growth requires the knowledge of the position of the organs along the different plant axes (the topology), their sizes, their forms, and their spatial orientation. The plant simulation model simulates the topology and organ weight or length. The superposition of spatial position and the topology produces the architecture of the plant. The association between sizes and organs creates what we refer to as the plant morphological model. Both components, the architectural model and the morphology model, are detailed in this paper. Once the integration is complete, the system produces a movie-like animation that shows the plant growing. The integrated model may simulate one or several plants growing simultaneously (in parallel). Visual capabilities make the proposed system very unique as it allows users to judge the results of the simulation the same way a farmer judges the situation of the crops in real life, by visually observing the field.     

EVALUATING RELIABILITY OF STORAGE SCHEMES WITH DENDROHYDROLOGY AND THE HURST PHENOMENON1

ABSTRACT: The mean annual flow at a damsite during a water project yield study of several decades may differ considerably from the mean flow of several hundred years. The frequency of the most severe droughts of record may be much different than apparent from the historical record as well. Dendrohydrology and the Hurst Phenomenon provide means to evaluate the validity of the study period for project reliability analysis. The most severe hydrologic drought (1928–1934) affecting the watersheds of the Sacramento River and tributaries in Northern California during the 75-year period 1906–1980 was also the worst drought in 421 years (1560–1980). In contrast, the most severe drought (1945–1951) in the Santa Ynez River watershed in Santa Barbara County, California, during the 62-year period 1918–1979 was the ninth worst drought in 443 years (1537–1979). Thus, in one case the drought risk indicated by the dendrohydrologic time series would actually be less; in the other, actual risk would be greater than perceived from the historical record. In the absence of a dendrohydrologic prehistoric time series, Hurst Phenomena would have provided clues to this outcome. Hurstian plotting of the accumulated deviation from the mean for long time series facilitates observation of the wet-dry regime of the examples and identification of characteristics that should be accounted for in water development planning.     

Larval dispersal of a deep-sea hydrothermal vent bivalve from the Galápagos Rift

The prodissoconch morphology of an unclassified mytilid from a hydrothermal vent on the Galápagos Rift indicates the presence of a planktotrophic larval stage with longrange dispersal capabilities. Recorded abyssal currents are probably sufficient to transport such larvae hundreds of kilometers. It is suggested that one or more aspects of the unusual biological or physico-chemical conditions (such as high microbial densities, elevated water temperatures, and hydrogen sulfide concentrations) encountered at vents, provide a stimulus to larval settlement. Such a behavioral response, perhaps coupled with a gregarious settling response, would provide a means of concentrating relatively sedentary organisms in and around these restricted, geographically isolated regions.     

Variation in vegetation cover and livestock mobility needs in Sahelian West Africa

A new approach was developed to evaluate the implications of the spatiotemporal variability of green vegetation for the dispersion of livestock that is required to access quality forage in semi-arid Africa. Maximum NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) at 1 km² resolution was determined for concentric rings (0–31 km radii) around 227 individual sample locations within the study area for 14 dates (between 1 April to 1 November) annually over the 2000–2010 period. A sigmoidal curve was fitted to points within the maximum NDVI × distance radii space to determine the asymptote distance (AD) – the radius at which further dispersion from the sample location does not lead to significant gains in access to green forage. AD was found to: increase with latitude (or increasing aridity); decline as the rainy season proceeds; and show no trend over the 2000–2010 period. These results introduce much-needed empirical data to current debates surrounding the scales of governance to support livestock mobility.     

Limited change in the diversity and structure of subtidal communities over four decades

A unique archive of photographs from 1969 to 1974 permitted a test of the hypothesis that the diversity and composition of contemporary epilithic communities on subtidal rock walls in the San Juan Islands, WA, USA, has changed over 40 years. Notably, the richness and diversity of sessile taxa was significantly higher in 2008–2011. Furthermore, the multivariate community structure of sessile and mobile taxa differed between the historic and modern eras. Historic communities were characterized by a high percent cover of bare rock and non-calcified algal crusts, consistent with the effects of grazing by chitons and urchins. The rate of sessile community turnover, an index less susceptible to spatial sampling artifacts than richness or diversity, was not significantly different between the two eras. Together with the naturally high spatial variability in these epilithic communities, and the limited replication of historic quadrats, we interpret cautiously the data as evidence of limited change despite a clear shift in temperature and predator (fish) guild composition. The lack of substantial change in rock wall communities may be due in part to their vertical topography, which limits physical disturbance and the preemption of space by weedy algae, two processes that are often associated with “phase-shifts” in other marine ecosystems.     

The Influence of Varying Algal Biomass On Contaminant Exposure in Benthic-Planktonic Mesocosms: Copper (Ii)

Abstract

A series of mesocosms was exposed to a suite of light treatments and nutrient enrichment in order to generate algal communities of varying biomass. the influence of this biomass on the speciation of copper (II) was studied. Distribution coefficients ( _Kd,Lkg?1) were relatively high (log _Kd = 5 to 7), indicative of robust trace metal sequestration, and were likely controlled by the particulate organic carbon content (foc). Differences in _Kd over time and among treatments were significant, as was the relationship between _Kd and foc. Fluorescence quenching was used to determine binding capacities ( _Lt , M) and their associated binding constants ( _Kcond ,M^?1) in order to model the solid phase copper speciation. the _Kcond ranged between 2.1 and 5.2 × 10¹²M^?1, indicating a very strong copper-ligand complex, and was higher in mesocosms that received more light. the light _Lt increased over time, dramatically after the nutrient enrichment, but did not vary systematically among light treatments. _Lt ranged from 7.2 × 10? 7 to 4.9 × 10? 5 M. the large magnitudes of _Kd , _Kcond and _Lt ensured that greater than 97% of total copper in the mesocosms was complexed by organic matter. the total copper concentration ([Cu]_T, M) needed to reach a target dissolved copper concentration of 10^?12.5 M (pCu = 12.5) was determined for each mesocosm over time. [Cu]_T was between 8.02 × 10^?5 and 3.41 × 10^?2 M, and increased over time. the [Cu]_T normalized to the target pCu (Effective Dose Ratio, EDR) increased directly with increases in algal biomass, indicating a direct link between system productivity and copper exposure. Approximately 45% of the variance in EDR was explained by variance in total biomass, while the residual variance in EDR was due likely to differences in the strengths of particle associations and magnitude of binding capacities.