Multicriteria Decision Aid in Supporting Decisions Related to Groundwater Protection

In the recent decades, there have been frequent conflicts between groundwater resources and environmentally hazardous activities. An example is the construction of the new highway through the important glaciofluvial esker aquifer Nybroåsen, which passes the protection zone of the water supply for the Kalmar municipality, in the southeastern part of Sweden. The decision to build the new road through this important aquifer has been strongly questioned by the municipality and the public because the value of the water resources in Nybroåsen was not taken into consideration during the first phase of the decision-making process. Multicriteria decision aid (MCDA) is applied as a tool to structure and analyze the four road alternatives proposed in the environmental impact assessment for the above conflict. The alternatives, including the existing road, are in conflict with water resources, agriculture, natural, and cultural values. The impacts on the water resources have been predicted by a two-dimensional physically based time-variant flow and solute groundwater model, which has been calibrated and evaluated. The MCDA illustrates how it can be used to identify (1) actors and their concerns, (2) ranking of alternative road scenarios according to actors preferences, and (3) coalition groups of actors, i.e., groups that have similar views with regard to the road alternatives. The analysis shows that the two best compromise solutions obtained in the MCDA were unacceptable by the strongest coalition group, showing that either the family of criteria was not well chosen or new alternatives should have been developed.     

A review on human exposure to brominated flame retardants--particularly polybrominated diphenyl ethers

Brominated flame retardants (BFRs) have been and are still heavily used as additive or reactive chemicals in polymers and textiles. Only a few of the BFRs have been assessed in human subjects with a major data set on internal exposures to polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs). Increasing PBDE levels have been observed in mothers' milk from Sweden as well as in blood from Germany and Norway. The levels are in general lower than PCB levels. However, the PBDE concentrations found in the North Americans are considerably higher compared to European subjects. The PBDEs are dominated by 2,2',4,4'-tetrabromodiphenyl ether (BDE-47). Decabromodiphenyl ether (BDE-209) is reported both in the general population and in occupationally exposed persons showing the bioavailability of this high molecular weight compound. While the lower and medium brominated diphenyl ethers are persistent, BDE-209 has a fairly short half-life of approximately 2 weeks. Tetrabromobisphenol A (TBBPA) is readily eliminated in humans showing a half-life of about 2 days. Still, TBBPA is accumulated in humans but a continuous exposure to this BFR is required to maintain a certain level in the human subject. TBBPA has not been detected in the general population but in people exposed at work. The current review addresses human exposure routes and levels of BFRs.     

KALMAN FILTER ESTIMATION AND PREDICTION OF DAILY STREAM FLOWS: I. REVIEW,ALGORITHM, AND SIMULATION EXPERIMENTS1

An important class of models, frequently used in hydrology for the forecasting of hydrologic variables one or more time periods ahead, or for the generation of synthetic data sequences, is the class of autoregressive(AR) models. As the AR models belong to the family of linear stochastic difference equations, they have both a deterministic and a stochastic component. The stochastic component is often assumed to have a Gaussian distribution. It is well known that hydrologic observations (e.g., stream flows) are heavily affected by noise. To account explicitly for the observation noise, the linear stochastic difference equation is expressed in state variable form and an observation model is introduced. The discrete Kalman filter algorithm can then be used to obtain estimates of the state variable vector. Typically, in hydrologic systems, model parameters, system noise statistics and measurement noise statistics are unknown, and have to be estimated. In this study an adaptive algorithm is discussed which estimates these quantities simultaneously with the state variables. The performance of the algorithm is evaluated by using simulated data.     

Molecular orbital studies on brominated diphenyl ethers. Part I--conformational properties

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are widely used as additive flame retardants and quantities in the environment are on the rise. Because they are structurally related to polychlorinated biphenyls and also to thyroid hormones, there is serious concern that PBDEs may pose a danger to human health. Knowledge of their conformational properties is key to assessing their environmental fate and risk. The conformational properties of PBDEs were investigated by quantum chemical methods including semiempirical self-consistent field molecular orbital (SCF-MO), ab initio SCF-MO and density functional theory (DFT). Conformational analyses of model congeners 2,2',4,6'-tetrabromodiphenyl ether and 2,3,4,4',5,6-hexabromodiphenyl ether, based on energy maps calculated by semiempirical AM1 method, may indicate that all PBDE congeners except those with the tetra-ortho-bromination are conformationally flexible (or soft) due to low energy barriers for interconversion of stable conformers. The results of the conformational analyses are in conformity with recently published X-ray crystallographic data. For comparison with the results of the semiempirical method, higher level ab initio and DFT models were applied as well. The optimized geometries all lie well inside low energy regions on the maps and thus also ascertain the semiempirical calculations. According to computed geometric parameters and net atomic charges, the model B3LYP/3-21G* seemed to give better results than B3LYP/6-31G* and HF/6-31G*.     

Molecular orbital studies on brominated diphenyl ethers. Part II--reactivity and quantitative structure-activity (property) relationships

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are widely used as flame retardants and are increasingly turning up in the environment. Their structural similarities to polychlorinated biphenyls and thyroid hormones suggest they may be a risk to human health. The present study examines the reactivity of brominated diphenyl ethers (BDEs) on the basis of the electronic structures as calculated by semiempirical AM1 self-consistent field molecular orbital (SCF-MO) method. Frontier orbital energies were used to elucidate the reactivity of BDEs in electrophilic, nucleophilic and photolytic reactions. From an examination of the frontier electron densities, the regioselectivity, or orientation, of metabolic reactions of BDEs was predicted. Furthermore, satisfactory quantitative structure-activity (property) relationship (QSAR and QSPR) models were derived to calculate gas chromatographic and ultraviolet spectral properties and luciferase induction activities from the AM1-computed electronic parameters.     

Radionuclide migration in forest ecosystems--results of a model validation study

The primary objective of the IAEA's BIOMASS Forest Working Group (FWG) was to bring together experimental radioecologists and modellers to facilitate the exchange of information which could be used to improve our ability to understand and forecast radionuclide transfers within forests. This paper describes a blind model validation exercise which was conducted by the FWG to test nine models which members of the group had developed in response to the need to predict the fate of radiocaesium in forests in Europe after the Chernobyl accident. The outcomes and conclusions of this exercise are summarised. It was concluded that, as a group, the models are capable of providing an envelope of predictions which can be expected to enclose experimental data for radiocaesium contamination in forests over the time scale tested. However, the models are subject to varying degrees of conceptual uncertainty which gives rise to a very high degree of divergence between individual model predictions, particularly when forecasting edible mushroom contamination. Furthermore, the forecasting capability of the models over future decades currently remains untested.     

Atmospheric transport patterns and possible consequences for the European North after a nuclear accident

The main purpose of this study is to examine possible impacts and consequences of a hypothetical accident at the Kola nuclear plant in north-west Russia on different geographical regions: Scandinavia, central Europe, European FSU and Taymyr. The period studied is 1991-1996. An isentropic trajectory model has been used to calculate forward trajectories that originated over the nuclear accident region. Atmospheric transport patterns were identified using the isentropic trajectories and a cluster analysis technique. From the trajectory model results, a number of cases were chosen for examination in detail using more complete transport models. For this purpose, the models MATHEW/ADPIC, DERMA and a newly developed FOA Random Displacement Model have been used to simulate the radionuclide transport and contamination in the case of a nuclear accident and their results have been compared with those of the trajectory modelling. Estimation of the long-term consequences for populations after an accident has been performed for several specific dates by empirical models and correlation between fallout and doses to humans on the basis of the Chernobyl accident exposures in Scandinavia.     

SIMULATION OF FRESHWATER DISCHARGES FROM UNGAGED AREAS TO THE SEBASTIAN RIVER,FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: Due to alterations in the natural drainage system over the past several decades and intensified agricultural practices, freshwater discharges to the Sebastian River, Florida, have increased substantially. As a result, salinity patterns in the Sebastian River and adjacent Indian River lagoon have been disrupted and the influx of nutrients has increased. Recently, the St. Johns River Water Management District has developed a 3‐D hydrodynamic and salinity model for the Sebastian River and adjacent Indian River to study the effects of freshwater inflows, and to set guidelines for management of future freshwater discharges. Freshwater inflows to the Sebastian River are part of the input data of the hydrodynamic model. Except for the downstream drainage areas, inflows are gaged, and the data were used for calibration of the hydrologic simulations. Collectively, the downstream ungaged areas constitute about 16 percent of the total drainage area. Because of the significant contribution to the total drainage area, reliable estimates of freshwater discharges from the ungaged areas to the Sebastian River are needed. This case study illustrates the development of a set of model parameters, reflecting the hydrologic and physiographic characteristics of the entire region. In this context region applies to the watersheds located in the coastal area along the Indian River from Titusville in the north to Vero Beach in the south. The parameter set was first tested on a number of gaged drainage basins in the region, and was then applied to the ungaged areas.