?kologische, ?konomische und rechtliche umweltbewertung

Zusammenfassung  Der Artikel gibt einen überblick über eine Beitragsserie zum Thema Integrative Umweltbewertung. Es wird über die Genese sowie die inhaltliche und organisatorische Struktur eines Graduiertenkollegs berichtet, das in den Jahren 1996–2002 in zwei Phasen an der Universit?t Kiel eingerichter war. Insbesondere wird auf die zentralen Begriffe Integration, Umwelt und Bewertung eingegangen. Ein besonderes Augenmerk liegt zudem auf dem genannten Thema als Forschungs- und Lehrgegenstand sowie auf den Chancen und Barrieren für interdisziplin?re Kooperation und Kommunikation zwischen den Fachgruppen ?kosystemforschung, Rechtswissenschaften und Wirtschafts-/Sozialwissenschaften. Am Schluss dieses übersichtsbeitrages werden die Beitr?ge der Serie kurz vorgestellt. Online First 17.06.2002     

Bewertungsverfahren Verfahren zur Bewertung von immissionsbedingten Stoffanreicherungen in standardisierten Graskulturen

Standardized grass cultures are routinely used to evaluate the accumulation of air pollutants. For the assessment of air pollutant accumulation in grass cultures, it is particularly important to distinguish between “normal” concentrations and the significantly increased accumulation caused by air pollution. This article presents a method to determine “normal” element concentrations (background levels) and define threshold values for the significantly elevated accumulation of pollutants for individual series of grass cultures. By applying the same method for the data from six regional air quality measuring programs, it was possible to derive universally applicable “normal” concentrations and threshold values for grass cultures. The described method is not limited to the evaluation of data from grass cultures but is also suitable for other biological or ecological data. It allows to distinguish between “normal” element concentrations and unusually high or low concentrations.     

Is daily mortality associated specifically with fine particles? Data reconstruction and replication of analyses

In 1996, Schwartz, Dockery, and Neas reported that daily mortality was more strongly associated with concentrations of PM2.5 than with concentrations of larger particles (coarse mass [CM]) in six U.S. cities ("original paper"/"original analyses"). Because of the public policy implications of the findings and the uniqueness of the concentration data, we undertook a reanalysis of these results. This paper presents results of the reconstruction of these data and replication of the original analyses using the reconstructed data. The original investigators provided particulate air pollution data for this paper. Daily weather and daily counts of total and cause-specific deaths were reconstructed from original public records. The reconstructed particulate air pollution and weather data were consistent with the summaries presented in the original paper. Daily counts of deaths in the reconstructed data set were lower than in the original paper because of restrictions on residence and place of death. The reconstruction process identified an administrative change in county codes that led to higher numbers of deaths in St. Louis. Despite these differences in daily counts of deaths, the estimated effects of particulate air pollution from the reconstructed dataset, using analytic methods as described in the original paper, produced combined effect estimates essentially equivalent to the originally published results. For example, the estimated association of a 10 micrograms/m3 increase in 2-day mean particulate air pollution on total mortality was 1.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.9-1.7%, t = 6.53) for PM2.5 based on the reconstructed dataset, compared to the originally reported association of 1.5% (95% CI 1.1-1.9%, t = 7.41). For coarse particles, the estimated association from the reconstructed dataset was 0.4% (95% CI -0.2-0.9%, t = 1.43) compared to the originally reported association of 0.4% (95% CI -0.1-1.0%, t = 1.48). These results from the reconstructed data suggest that the original results reported by Schwartz, Dockery, and Neas were essentially replicated.     

Response to Kruse-Plass et al. (2017) regarding the risk to non-target lepidopteran larvae exposed to pollen from one or more of three Bt maize events (MON810, Bt11 and 1507)

We respond to the paper of Kruse-Plass et al. (Environ Sci Eur 29:12, 2017), published in this journal, regarding the risk to non-target lepidopteran larvae exposed to pollen from one or more of three Bt maize events (MON810, Bt11 and 1507). We emphasise that what is important for environmental risk assessment is not the number of pollen grains per se, but the degree of exposure of a NT lepidopteran larva to Bt protein contained in maize pollen. The main text of this response deals with general issues which Kruse-Plass et al. have failed to understand; more detailed refutations of each of their claims are given in Additional file 1. Valid environmental risk assessment requires direct measurement of pollen on leaves at varying distances outside a source field(s); such measurements reflect the potential exposure experienced by an individual larva on a host plant. There are no new data in the Kruse-Plass et al. paper, or indeed any data directly quantifying pollen on actual host-plant leaves outside a maize field; only data gathered within or at the edge of maize crops were reported. Values quoted by Kruse-Plass et al. for deposition on host plants outside the field were estimates only. We reiterate the severe methodological criticisms made by EFSA [Relevance of a new scientific publication (Hofmann et al. 2016) for previous environmental risk assessment conclusions and risk management recommendations on the cultivation of Bt-maize events MON810, Bt11 and 1507. EFSA Supp Publ; EN-1070, 2016], which render this estimation procedure unreliable. Furthermore, criticisms of EFSA (EFSA J 2015(13):4127, 2015) and of EFSA [Relevance of a new scientific publication (Hofmann et al. 2016) for previous environmental risk assessment conclusions and risk management recommendations on the cultivation of Bt-maize events MON810, Bt11 and 1507. EFSA Supp Publ; EN-1070, 2016] made by Kruse-Plass et al. are shown in Additional file 1 to be without foundation. We therefore consider that there is no valid evidence presented by Kruse-Plass et al. to justify their conclusions.     

Extension of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for long term dose assessment of high level nuclear waste disposal sites to uncertainties in the human behaviour

Biosphere dose conversion factors are computed for the French high-level geological waste disposal concept and to illustrate the combined probabilistic and deterministic approach. Both ¹³⁵Cs and ⁷⁹Se are used as examples. Probabilistic analyses of the system considering all parameters, as well as physical and societal parameters independently, allow quantification of their mutual impact on overall uncertainty. As physical parameter uncertainties decreased, for example with the availability of further experimental and field data, the societal uncertainties, which are less easily constrained, particularly for the long term, become more and more significant. One also has to distinguish uncertainties impacting the low dose portion of a distribution from those impacting the high dose range, the latter having logically a greater impact in an assessment situation. The use of cumulative probability curves allows us to quantify probability variations as a function of the dose estimate, with the ratio of the probability variation (slope of the curve) indicative of uncertainties of different radionuclides. In the case of ¹³⁵Cs with better constrained physical parameters, the uncertainty in human behaviour is more significant, even in the high dose range, where they increase the probability of higher doses. For both radionuclides, uncertainties impact more strongly in the intermediate than in the high dose range. In an assessment context, the focus will be on probabilities of higher dose values. The probabilistic approach can furthermore be used to construct critical groups based on a predefined probability level and to ensure that critical groups cover the expected range of uncertainty.     

Is Daily Mortality Associated Specifically with Fine Particles? Data Reconstruction and Replication of Analyses

ABSTRACT

In 1996, Schwartz, Dockery, and Neas¹ reported that daily mortality was more strongly associated with concentrations of PM_2.5 than with concentrations of larger particles (coarse mass [CM]) in six U.S. cities (“original paper'V'original analyses”). Because of the public policy implications of the findings and the uniqueness of the concentration data, we undertook a reanalysis of these results. This paper presents results of the reconstruction of these data and replication of the original analyses using the reconstructed data. The original investigators provided particulate air pollution data for this paper. Daily weather and daily counts of total and cause-specific deaths were reconstructed from original public records. The reconstructed particulate air pollution and weather data were consistent with the summaries presented in the original paper. Daily counts of deaths in the reconstructed data set were lower than in the original paper because of restrictions on residence and place of death. The reconstruction process identified an administrative change in county codes that led to higher numbers of deaths in St. Louis. Despite these differences in daily counts of deaths, the estimated effects of par-ticulate air pollution from the reconstructed dataset, using analytic methods as described in the original paper, produced combined effect estimates essentially equivalent to the originally published results. For example, the estimated association of a 10 |j.g/m³ increase in 2-day mean particulate air pollution on total mortality was 1.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.9-1.7%, t = 6.53) for PM₂₅ based on the reconstructed dataset, compared to the originally reported association of 1.5% (95% CI 1.1-1.9%, t = 7.41). For coarse particles, the estimated association from the reconstructed dataset was 0.4% (95% CI -0.2-0.9%, t = 1.43) compared to the originally reported association of 0.4% (95% CI -0.1-1.0%, t = 1.48). These results from the reconstructed data suggest that the original results reported by Schwartz, Dockery, and Neas¹ were essentially replicated.     

Calibrating climate change policies: the causes and consequences of sustained under-reaction

We apply insights from the recent literature on disproportionate policy reactions to the case of climate change policy-making. We show when and why climate change exhibits features of a sustained under-reaction: Governments may react to concerns about climate change not through substantive change but by efforts to manage blame strategically. As long as they can avoid blame for potential negative policy outcomes policy-makers can act to deny problems, or implement only small-scale or symbolic reforms. While this pattern may change as climate change problems worsen and public recognition of the issue and what can be done about it alters, opportunities to manage blame will still exist. Governments will only revert to more substantive interventions when attempts to fatalistically frame the problem as unavoidable fail in the face of increased public visibility.     

Dust storm frequency and its relation to climate changes in Northern China during the past 1000 years

Dust storm events and their relation to climate changes in Northern China during the past 1000 years were analyzed by using different paleoclimate archives such as ice cores, tree rings, and historical documents. The results show that in the semiarid region, the temperature and precipitation series were significantly negatively correlated to the dust storm frequency on a decadal timescale. Compared with temperature changes, however, there was a closer correlation between precipitation changes and dust storm events on a centennial timescale. At this timescale, precipitation accounts for 40% of the variance of dust fall variations during the last 1700 years, inferring precipitation control on the formation of dust storms. In the western arid region, both temperature and precipitation changes are important forcing factors for the occurrence of dust storms in the region on a centennial timescale. In the eastern arid region, the relationship between dust storm events and climate changes are similar like in the semiarid region. As a result, the effects of climate change on dust storm events were manifested on decadal and centennial timescales during the last millennium. However, there is a phase shift in the relation between climate change and the dust storm frequency. A 1400 years reconstruction of the strength of the Siberian High reveals that long-term variations of spring Siberian High intensity might provide a background for the dynamic conditions for the frequency of historical dust storm events in Northern China.     

Exposure of the Roots of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Populus nigra</Emphasis> L. cv. Loenen to PAHs and its Effect on growth and water balance

Poplar cuttings were cultivated for 4 weeks in a substrate, which consisted of a combination of sand and nutrient solution. The plants were treated for 24 days with BaP, Chr, Ant, Phen, P and Flt, single or in combination. The concentration of the PAHs ranged from 0.1-200 mg/kg substrate. The results of the pollution experiments can be summarized as follows: 1. The most significant deviations between the test groups and the control can be observed for transpiration, nutrient solution uptake, and root mass. 2. Although transpiration and nutrient solution uptake are significantly lower for all the treated groups than for the control group, the water content of the leaves was not affected by PAHs. 3. The biomass of the shoots and the growth in shoot length do not react as strongly to exposure to PAHs as transpiration, nutrient solution uptake and the volume of the roots. 4. The differences in leaf weight and leaf surface area are significantly less pronounced compared to the control groups. Growth inhibition is most evident with Flt. Growth and absorption of the nutrient solution dropped with just Flt 0.1 mg/kg substrate. When the substrate concentration was increased, growth and nutrient solution uptake dropped considerably and at a concentration of Flt 200, 5 of the 11 test plants died before the end of the period of exposure. Nutrient solution uptake and shoot development of the test plants decreased in the following order: BaP H approximately = Chr > Ant > Phen > Pyr > Flt.