?kologische, ?konomische und rechtliche umweltbewertung

Zusammenfassung  Der Artikel gibt einen überblick über eine Beitragsserie zum Thema Integrative Umweltbewertung. Es wird über die Genese sowie die inhaltliche und organisatorische Struktur eines Graduiertenkollegs berichtet, das in den Jahren 1996–2002 in zwei Phasen an der Universit?t Kiel eingerichter war. Insbesondere wird auf die zentralen Begriffe Integration, Umwelt und Bewertung eingegangen. Ein besonderes Augenmerk liegt zudem auf dem genannten Thema als Forschungs- und Lehrgegenstand sowie auf den Chancen und Barrieren für interdisziplin?re Kooperation und Kommunikation zwischen den Fachgruppen ?kosystemforschung, Rechtswissenschaften und Wirtschafts-/Sozialwissenschaften. Am Schluss dieses übersichtsbeitrages werden die Beitr?ge der Serie kurz vorgestellt. Online First 17.06.2002     

Calibrating climate change policies: the causes and consequences of sustained under-reaction

We apply insights from the recent literature on disproportionate policy reactions to the case of climate change policy-making. We show when and why climate change exhibits features of a sustained under-reaction: Governments may react to concerns about climate change not through substantive change but by efforts to manage blame strategically. As long as they can avoid blame for potential negative policy outcomes policy-makers can act to deny problems, or implement only small-scale or symbolic reforms. While this pattern may change as climate change problems worsen and public recognition of the issue and what can be done about it alters, opportunities to manage blame will still exist. Governments will only revert to more substantive interventions when attempts to fatalistically frame the problem as unavoidable fail in the face of increased public visibility.     

Dust storm frequency and its relation to climate changes in Northern China during the past 1000 years

Dust storm events and their relation to climate changes in Northern China during the past 1000 years were analyzed by using different paleoclimate archives such as ice cores, tree rings, and historical documents. The results show that in the semiarid region, the temperature and precipitation series were significantly negatively correlated to the dust storm frequency on a decadal timescale. Compared with temperature changes, however, there was a closer correlation between precipitation changes and dust storm events on a centennial timescale. At this timescale, precipitation accounts for 40% of the variance of dust fall variations during the last 1700 years, inferring precipitation control on the formation of dust storms. In the western arid region, both temperature and precipitation changes are important forcing factors for the occurrence of dust storms in the region on a centennial timescale. In the eastern arid region, the relationship between dust storm events and climate changes are similar like in the semiarid region. As a result, the effects of climate change on dust storm events were manifested on decadal and centennial timescales during the last millennium. However, there is a phase shift in the relation between climate change and the dust storm frequency. A 1400 years reconstruction of the strength of the Siberian High reveals that long-term variations of spring Siberian High intensity might provide a background for the dynamic conditions for the frequency of historical dust storm events in Northern China.     

Exposure of the Roots of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Populus nigra</Emphasis> L. cv. Loenen to PAHs and its Effect on growth and water balance

Poplar cuttings were cultivated for 4 weeks in a substrate, which consisted of a combination of sand and nutrient solution. The plants were treated for 24 days with BaP, Chr, Ant, Phen, P and Flt, single or in combination. The concentration of the PAHs ranged from 0.1-200 mg/kg substrate. The results of the pollution experiments can be summarized as follows: 1. The most significant deviations between the test groups and the control can be observed for transpiration, nutrient solution uptake, and root mass. 2. Although transpiration and nutrient solution uptake are significantly lower for all the treated groups than for the control group, the water content of the leaves was not affected by PAHs. 3. The biomass of the shoots and the growth in shoot length do not react as strongly to exposure to PAHs as transpiration, nutrient solution uptake and the volume of the roots. 4. The differences in leaf weight and leaf surface area are significantly less pronounced compared to the control groups. Growth inhibition is most evident with Flt. Growth and absorption of the nutrient solution dropped with just Flt 0.1 mg/kg substrate. When the substrate concentration was increased, growth and nutrient solution uptake dropped considerably and at a concentration of Flt 200, 5 of the 11 test plants died before the end of the period of exposure. Nutrient solution uptake and shoot development of the test plants decreased in the following order: BaP H approximately = Chr > Ant > Phen > Pyr > Flt.     

Assessing the susceptibility of societies to droughts: a political science perspective

In this article we develop a concept for the assessment of state’s susceptibility to drought based on a political science perspective. Different sources of capacities and sensitivities need to be taken into account to assess the overall susceptibility of states as political systems. We argue that the overall susceptibility of a society depends on an interplay of state capacity and readiness as main elements of political susceptibility, wealth and economic sensitivity as elements of economic susceptibility and the degree of social integration. To transform the conceptual model into a susceptibility assessment we developed an inference model in order to generate quantitative indices. For this purpose we apply fuzzy set theory using data from our case study regions, namely Andhra Pradesh (India), the Volga region (Russia) and (Southern) Portugal. The resulting computed trends for Portugal suggest that the society will be able to deal even with severe natural conditions due to existing political, economic, and social conditions. The assessment results for the Indian and Russian case study regions, in contrast, give reason for precaution since the occurrence of drought-induced crisis events seems much more likely in the light of more crucial, overall conditions, namely lower degrees of state capacity and readiness as well as, in the case of India, a high economic susceptibility. However, further improvements are possible given the improved availability of data and the integration of more qualitative information. Additionally, the expansion to further case study regions could help validate the overall concept.     

Impact of microcystin containing diets on physiological performance of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) concerning detoxification

Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) were fed by diets supplemented with cyanobacteria containing in part the cyanotoxin microcystin-LR (MC-LR) to determine the potential impacts on detoxification. Four different diets were prepared based on a commercial diet: (1) control, (2) MC-5% (containing 5% dried Microcystis sp. biomass with 4.92 μg MC-LR g(-1) diet), (3) MC-20% (containing 20% dried Microcystis sp. biomass with 19.54 μg MC-LR g(-1) diet), and (4) Arthr-20% (containing 20% dried Arthrospira sp. biomass without MC-LR). Blood and liver samples were taken after one, 7, and 28 days and protein has been determined in plasma and liver. In the liver, impacts on detoxification were measured by glutathione-S-transferase (GST) activities and gene expression of multi drug resistance protein (MDRP). Plasma protein did not change between all four diets at any sampling time whereas liver protein was significantly elevated already after one day in Arthr-20% and after 28 days in both, MC-20% and Arthr-20%. Biochemical measurements of GST activities revealed no significant impact at any sampling time. In order to characterize the potential effect of MC-LR on MDRP, RT-qPCR method was established. However, as for GST activities no significant changes in MDRP gene expression have been observed. Thus, in summary, oral exposure of MC-LR containing cyanobacteria to Nile tilapia via feed ingestion did not impact significantly detoxification in liver concerning GST activities and MDRP expression despite biochemical composition concerning liver protein was significantly elevated by the diets containing 20% cyanobacteria biomass, regardless whether they contained MC-LR or not.     

Bringing diverse knowledge sources together--a meta-model for supporting integrated catchment management

Integrated catchment management (ICM), as promoted by recent legislation such as the European Water Framework Directive, presents difficult challenges to planners and decision-makers. To support decision-making in the face of high complexity and uncertainty, tools are required that can integrate the evidence base required to evaluate alternative management scenarios and promote communication and social learning. In this paper we present a pragmatic approach for developing an integrated decision-support tool, where the available sources of information are very diverse and a tight model coupling is not possible. In the first instance, a loosely coupled model is developed which includes numerical sub-models and knowledge-based sub-models. However, such a model is not easy for decision-makers and stakeholders to operate without modelling skills. Therefore, we derive from it a meta-model based on a Bayesian Network approach which is a decision-support tool tailored to the needs of the decision-makers and is fast and easy to operate. The meta-model can be derived at different levels of detail and complexity according to the requirements of the decision-makers. In our case, the meta-model was designed for high-level decision-makers to explore conflicts and synergies between management actions at the catchment scale. As prediction uncertainties are propagated and explicitly represented in the model outcomes, important knowledge gaps can be identified and an evidence base for robust decision-making is provided. The framework seeks to promote the development of modelling tools that can support ICM both by providing an integrated scientific evidence base and by facilitating communication and learning processes.