Methodological uncertainties in multi-regression analyses of middle-atmospheric data series

Multi-regression analyses have often been used recently to detect trends, in particular in ozone or temperature data sets in the stratosphere. The confidence in detecting trends depends on a number of factors which generate uncertainties. Part of these uncertainties comes from the random variability and these are what is usually considered. They can be statistically estimated from residual deviations between the data and the fitting model. However, interferences between different sources of variability affecting the data set, such as the Quasi-Biennal Oscillation (QBO), volcanic aerosols, solar flux variability and the trend can also be a critical source of errors. This type of error has hitherto not been well quantified. In this work an artificial data series has been generated to carry out such estimates. The sources of errors considered here are: the length of the data series, the dependence on the choice of parameters used in the fitting model and the time evolution of the trend in the data series. Curves provided here, will permit future studies to test the magnitude of the methodological bias expected for a given case, as shown in several real examples. It is found that, if the data series is shorter than a decade, the uncertainties are very large, whatever factors are chosen to identify the source of the variability. However the errors can be limited when dealing with natural variability, if a sufficient number of periods (for periodic forcings) are covered by the analysed dataset. However when analysing the trend, the response to volcanic eruption induces a bias, whatever the length of the data series. The signal to noise ratio is a key factor: doubling the noise increases the period for which data is required in order to obtain an error smaller than 10%, from 1 to 3-4 decades. Moreover, if non-linear trends are superimposed on the data, and if the length of the series is longer than five years, a non-linear function has to be used to estimate trends. When applied to real data series, and when a breakpoint in the series occurs, the study reveals that data extending over 5 years are needed to detect a significant change in the slope of the ozone trends at mid-latitudes.     

Nest separation and the dynamics of the Gestalt odor in the polydomous ant Cataglyphis iberica (Hymenoptera, Formicidae)

In the polydomous ant species Cataglyphis iberica, nests belonging to the same colony are completely separated during hibernation. In order to examine whether this separation induces changes both in the hydrocarbon profile and in recognition ability between adult nestmates, we separated groups of workers for several months under two different conditions: at hibernation temperature and at room temperature. At room temperature, recognition remained unchanged but separation led to longer mutual antennations relative to non-separated controls. When half of a colony was placed under hibernation conditions, antennal interactions also increased in duration and a few aggressive interactions emerged between separated ants. This aggressiveness never reached the intercolonial level observed in this species. In both cases, the hydrocarbon profiles showed differences between individuals after separation while remaining homogeneous within each nest. This chemical modification may induce the longer antennations observed. After separated groups were reunited, individuals recovered their previous antennation pattern and a convergence in hydrocarbon profiles was again observed. These concurrent observations suggest that hydrocarbons are transferred between nestmates. In C. iberica, the formation of the colonial odor seems to follow the “Gestalt” model which allows all satellite nests of a colony to have a common colonial odor. In the field, temporary nest isolation during hibernation may induce divergence between satellites. The role of adult transport in connecting nests during the active season to obtain an efficient Gestalt odor is discussed. Received: 16 June 1997 / Accepted after revision: 25 October 1997     

A hydrological modeling framework for defining achievable performance standards for pesticides

This paper proposes a hydrological modeling framework to define achievable performance standards (APSs) for pesticides that could be attained after implementation of recommended management actions, agricultural practices, and available technologies (i.e., beneficial management practices [BMPs]). An integrated hydrological modeling system, Gestion Intégrée des Bassins versants à l'aide d'un Système Informatisé, was used to quantify APSs for six Canadian watersheds for eight pesticides: atrazine, carbofuran, dicamba, glyphosate, MCPB, MCPA, metolachlor, and 2,4-D. Outputs from simulation runs to predict pesticide concentration under current conditions and in response to implementation of two types of beneficial management practices (reduced pesticide application rate and 1- to 10-m-wide edge-of-field and/or riparian buffer strips, implemented singly or in combination) showed that APS values for scenarios with BMPs were less than those for current conditions. Moreover, APS values at the outlet of watersheds were usually less than ecological thresholds of good condition, when available. Upstream river reaches were at greater risk of having concentrations above a given ecological thresholds because of limited stream flows and overland loads of pesticides. Our integrated approach of "hydrological modeling-APS estimation-ecotoxicological significance" provides the most effective interpretation possible, for management and education purposes, of the potential biological impact of predicted pesticide concentrations in rivers.     

Responses of juvenile European flounder (Platichthys flesus) to multistress in the Vilaine estuary, during a 6-month survey

Physiological and genetic responses of age 0+ Platichthys flesus were investigated in the eutrophicated and moderately contaminated Vilaine estuary, during a 6-month survey. The main objective of this study was to explore the biological responses of fishes during their juvenile period in an estuarine system in order to detect a possible selective pressure induced by the environmental stress. Our results showed a general convergence in physiological responses along the survey: an increase in genotoxicity was associated with an increase in mRNA expression of ATPase and betaine homocysteine methyltransferase. These results could suggest an increase of cellular damage, energetic request, and detoxification rate related to the growing exposure time to stress. Considering the aging of the cohort, the genetic characteristics of the Vilaine flounder cohort came closer to the one observed in a highly stressed system, the Seine estuary, suggesting a potential selective pressure mainly induced by the chemical stress.     

Calibration and validation of an integrated nitrate transport model within a well capture zone

Groundwater contamination by nitrate was investigated in an agricultural area in southern Quebec, Canada, where a municipal well is the local source of drinking water. A network of 38 piezometers was installed within the capture zone of the municipal well to monitor water table levels and nitrate concentrations in the aquifer. Nitrate concentrations were also measured in the municipal well. A Water flow and Nitrate transport Global Model (WNGM) was developed to simulate the impact of agricultural activities on nitrate concentrations in both the aquifer and municipal well. The WNGM first uses the Agriflux model to simulate vertical water and nitrate fluxes below the root zone for each of the seventy agricultural fields located within the capture zone of the municipal well. The WNGM then uses the HydroGeoSphere model to simulate three-dimensional variably-saturated groundwater flow and nitrate transport in the aquifer using water and nitrate fluxes computed with the Agriflux model as the top boundary conditions. The WNGM model was calibrated by reproducing water levels measured from 2005 to 2007 in the network of piezometers and nitrate concentrations measured in the municipal well from 1997 to 2007. The nitrate concentrations measured in the network of piezometers, however, showed greater variability than in the municipal well and could not be reproduced by the calibrated model. After calibration, the model was validated by successfully reproducing the decrease of nitrate concentrations observed in the municipal well in 2006 and 2007. Although it cannot predict nitrate concentrations in individual piezometers, the calibrated and validated WNGM can be used to assess the impact of changes in agricultural practices on global nitrate concentrations in the aquifer and in the municipal well.     

Effects of long exposure to low temperatures on nitrifying biofilm and biomass in wastewater treatment

Attached growth biological treatment systems are a promising solution to ammonia removal in cold-temperature climates. Environmental scanning electron microscopy (ESEM) and confocal laser scanning microscopy in combination with fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) was used to investigate the effects of 4 months of exposure to 4 degrees C on nitrifying biofilm and biomass. These molecular and microscopic methods were modified to minimize loss of mass and distortion of in situ perspectives. Environmental scanning electron microscopy revealed that nitrifying biofilm did not exhibit significant changes in volume with exposure to 4 degrees C. Confocal laser scanning microscopy in combination with FISH showed that the number of ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB) cells present in the biofilm was statistically consistent during exposure to 4 degrees C. The RNA content of AOB cells remained sufficient for FISH enumeration. The number of nitrite-oxidizing bacteria cells remained steady during exposure to 4 degrees C; however, the RNA content of the cells appeared to decrease with exposure to 4 degrees C, thereby preventing their enumeration using FISH.     

Uranium bioaccumulation and biological disorders induced in zebrafish (Danio rerio) after a depleted uranium waterborne exposure

Because of its toxicity and its ubiquity within aquatic compartments, uranium (U) represents a significant hazard to aquatic species such as fish. In a previous study, we investigated some biological responses in zebrafish either exposed to depleted or to enriched U (i.e., to different radiological activities). However, results required further experiments to better understand biological responses. Moreover, we failed to clearly demonstrate a significant relationship between biological effects and U radiological activity. We therefore chose to herein examine U bioaccumulation and induced effects in zebrafish according to a chemical dose-response approach. Results showed that U is highly bioconcentrated in fish, according to a time- and concentration-dependent model. Additionally, hepatic antioxidant defenses, red blood cells DNA integrity and brain acetylcholinesterase activity were found to be significantly altered. Generally, the higher the U concentration, the sooner and/or the greater the effect, suggesting a close relationship between accumulation and effect.     

Degradation in an Inert Solid Medium of Poly(Lactic Acid) Polymeric Material by Kibdelosporangium aridum

The aim of this work was to estimate the biodegradation of a poly(lactic acid) polymeric material by the actinomycetes Kibdelosporangium aridum using a vermiculite based inert solid medium which could simulate compost medium and enable us to achieve complete carbon balances. The mineralisation rate at the end of the test was compared to those obtained for two basal media. It was shown that cumulative mineralisation after 45 days of degradation was greater (70%) in vermiculite with a basal medium containing gelatin than in vermiculite with a basal medium containing glucose (20%).     

Trapping efficiencies of cultivated and natural riparian vegetation of northern Laos

In northern Laos, intensification of cultivation on sloping land leads to accelerated erosion processes. Management of riparian land may counteract the negative impacts of higher sediment delivery rates on water quality. This study assessed water and sediment concentration trapping efficiencies of riparian vegetation in northern Laos and the effect of cultivation of riparian land on water quality. Runoff flowing in and out of selected riparian sites was monitored by means of open troughs. In 2005, two native grass, two bamboo, and two banana sites were monitored. In 2006, adjacent to steep banana, bamboo, and native grass sites, three upland rice sites were established and monitored. Water trapping efficiency (WTE) and sediment concentration trapping efficiency (SCTE) were calculated on an event basis; means and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated with a bootstrapping approach. Confidence intervals were large and overlapping among sites. Seepage conditions severely limited trapping efficiency. Native grass resulted in the highest WTE (95% CI, -0.10 to 0.23), which was not significantly different from zero. Banana resulted in the highest SCTE (95% CI, 0.06-0.40). Bamboo had negative WTE and SCTE. Median outflow runoff from rice sites was nine times the inflow. Median outflow sediment concentration from rice sites was two to five times that of their adjacent sites and two to five times the inflow sediment concentration. Although low-tillage banana plantation may reduce sediment concentration of runoff, cultivation of annual crops in riparian land leads to delivery of turbid runoff into the stream, thus severely affecting stream water quality.     

Exposure assessment of French women and their newborns to tetrabromobisphenol-A: occurrence measurements in maternal adipose tissue, serum, breast milk and cord serum

A French monitoring study was initiated to evaluate the exposure of fetus and newborn to brominated flame retardants (BFR). A previously developed multi-residue analytical method was used for measuring the main classes of BFR (tetrabromobisphenol-A, and tri- to decabomodiphenyl ethers) in various human biological matrices. Analyzed samples (maternal and cord serum, adipose tissue and breast milk) were collected from 93 volunteer women during caesarean deliveries. TBBPA was detected in 44% of the analyzed breast milk samples, at levels varying from 0.06 to 37.34 ng g(-1) lipid weight, but was not detected in adipose tissue. This compound was also detected in 30% of the analyzed serum samples, with similar average values in maternal and cord serum (154 pg g(-1) fresh weight versus 199 pg g(-1) fresh weight, respectively). The interpretation of the collected data permitted the demonstration of (1) a significant exposure to TBBPA both for mothers and fetuses and (2) a possible risk of overexposure of newborns through breastfeeding.