An interactive simulation and visualization tool for flood analysis usable for practitioners

Developing strategies to mitigate or to adapt to the threats of floods is an important topic in the context of climate changes. Many of the world’s cities are endangered due to rising ocean levels and changing precipitation patterns. It is therefore crucial to develop analytical tools that allow us to evaluate the threats of floods and to investigate the influence of mitigation and adaptation measures, such as stronger dikes, adaptive spatial planning, and flood disaster plans. Up until the present, analytical tools have only been accessible to domain experts, as the involved simulation processes are complex and rely on computational and data-intensive models. Outputs of these analytical tools are presented to practitioners (i.e., policy analysts and political decision-makers) on maps or in graphical user interfaces. In practice, this output is only used in limited measure because practitioners often have different information requirements or do not trust the direct outcome. Nonetheless, literature indicates that a closer collaboration between domain experts and practitioners can ensure that the information requirements of practitioners are better aligned with the opportunities and limitations of analytical tools. The objective of our work is to present a step forward in the effort to make analytical tools in flood management accessible for practitioners to support this collaboration between domain experts and practitioners. Our system allows the user to interactively control the simulation process (addition of water sources or influence of rainfall), while a realistic visualization allows the user to mentally map the results onto the real world. We have developed several novel algorithms to present and interact with flood data. We explain the technologies, discuss their necessity alongside test cases, and introduce a user study to analyze the reactions of practitioners to our system. We conclude that, despite the complexity of flood simulation models and the size of the involved data sets, our system is accessible for practitioners of flood management so that they can carry out flood simulations together with domain experts in interactive work sessions. Therefore, this work has the potential to significantly change the decision-making process and may become an important asset in choosing sustainable flood mitigations and adaptation strategies.     

Injuries and risk-taking behaviours in Portuguese adolescents: Highlights from the health behaviour in school-aged children survey

Aim

Injuries in adolescence are an important public health problem and a major cause of morbidity and mortality in this age group. This study aimed to determine the behaviour profile associated to risk of injury and the differences between genders, region and ethnic origin.

Methods

A cross-sectional study design of a nationally representative sample of 1581 adolescents of the Portuguese Health Behaviour in School-Aged Children study.

Results

An occurrence of one injury-related event in the previous year was reported by 21.4% of the respondents and 5.9% referred having more than one injury-related event. Boys reported higher frequency of those events when compared to girls, and non-Portuguese subjects referred higher frequency of events. Scoring higher in violence-related behaviour and psychosomatic complaints was associated to higher chances of referring more than one injury-related event.

Conclusion

Gender, social background and behaviour profile are factors that seem to influence the risk of injuries. This information should guide those involved in the planning of injuries prevention programs in youth.     

A method for simplifying the analysis of traffic accidents injury severity on two-lane highways using Bayesian networks

Introduction

This study describes a method for reducing the number of variables frequently considered in modeling the severity of traffic accidents. The method's efficiency is assessed by constructing Bayesian networks (BN).

Method

It is based on a two stage selection process. Several variable selection algorithms, commonly used in data mining, are applied in order to select subsets of variables. BNs are built using the selected subsets and their performance is compared with the original BN (with all the variables) using five indicators. The BNs that improve the indicators’ values are further analyzed for identifying the most significant variables (accident type, age, atmospheric factors, gender, lighting, number of injured, and occupant involved). A new BN is built using these variables, where the results of the indicators indicate, in most of the cases, a statistically significant improvement with respect to the original BN.

Conclusions

It is possible to reduce the number of variables used to model traffic accidents injury severity through BNs without reducing the performance of the model.

Impact on Industry

The study provides the safety analysts a methodology that could be used to minimize the number of variables used in order to determine efficiently the injury severity of traffic accidents without reducing the performance of the model.     

Mitochondrial and microsatellite assessment of population structure of South American sea lion (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Otaria flavescens</Emphasis>) in the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean

Several major breeding areas have been defined for the South American sea lion (Otaria flavescens) along the Atlantic Ocean including the Uruguayan and Patagonian coasts. Together with a documented and severe reduction in population sizes caused by commercial hunting in the last century, these areas show opposite population trends. While Patagonian populations are recovering since hunting ceased, Uruguayan populations are declining. In this context, population genetic structure and genetic diversity were studied for the first time with both nuclear (microsatellites) and mitochondrial (control region) markers together. Alternative scenarios were found for both markers. While mitochondrial marker showed geographically structured populations, the nuclear loci showed a lack of geographical structure. These opposite patterns in genetic structure could be explained by female phylopatry and high male dispersion. The reduction in population size caused by commercial hunting did not leave a detectable footprint of bottleneck at the genetic level.     

Saharan dust episodes and pregnancy

Desert dust is one of the natural contributors to atmospheric particulate matter worldwide. Although particulate pollution has been shown to adversely affect pregnancy, the available evidence on the impact of dust episodes on pregnancy is very scarce. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of Saharan dust episodes on pregnancy complications (preeclampsia and bacteriuria) and outcomes (birth weight and gestational age at delivery). This study was based on a cohort of births (N = 3565) that occurred in a major university hospital in Barcelona during 2003-2005. To determine Saharan dust episodes, we developed a two-stage approach based on meteorological evidence of the presence of Saharan dust cloud over the region and unusually high levels of particulate levels on the ground while taking account of traffic sources. The associations between the number of Saharan dust episodes during whole pregnancy as well as each pregnancy trimester and pregnancy complications and outcomes were analysed. There were 152 days (out of 838 days) with Saharan dust cloud over the region from which 45 days were determined as episodic days. We did not observe any statistically significant harmful effect of Saharan dust episodes on our included pregnancy complications and outcomes. However, we observed a small but statistically significant increase in gestational age at delivery in association with the number of episodic days during the third trimester and whole pregnancy (0.8 and 0.5 days respectively). Our findings were not suggestive for any adverse effect of Saharan dust episodes on our included pregnancy complications and outcomes.     

Actinides and decay products in selected produce and bioindicators in the vicinity of a uranium plant

Cypress needles collected at the edge of the Malvési uranium facility (SW France) exhibit enhanced activities of actinides and some decay products (uranium, americium, plutonium, (230)Th, (226)Ra) compared to a remote site. These enhanced activities resulted from the release of U via smokestacks and passive release from former artificial ponds located inside the nuclear site. Enhanced activities are also observed in selected produce (wheat, lettuce, fruits) sampled from the edge of the site. However, excess actinides measured in wheat grains in 2007 are inconsistent with the activities and the uranium ratio measured in the soils. This result suggests that the studied annual crops were contaminated mainly through the short-term release of airborne actinides, and that other transfer pathways, such as, uptake through the roots or adhesion of soil particles, were negligible.     

Scaling-up spatially-explicit ecological models using graphics processors

How the properties of ecosystems relate to spatial scale is a prominent topic in current ecosystem research. Despite this, spatially explicit models typically include only a limited range of spatial scales, mostly because of computing limitations. Here, we describe the use of graphics processors to efficiently solve spatially explicit ecological models at large spatial scale using the CUDA language extension. We explain this technique by implementing three classical models of spatial self-organization in ecology: a spiral-wave forming predator-prey model, a model of pattern formation in arid vegetation, and a model of disturbance in mussel beds on rocky shores. Using these models, we show that the solutions of models on large spatial grids can be obtained on graphics processors with up to two orders of magnitude reduction in simulation time relative to normal pc processors. This allows for efficient simulation of very large spatial grids, which is crucial for, for instance, the study of the effect of spatial heterogeneity on the formation of self-organized spatial patterns, thereby facilitating the comparison between theoretical results and empirical data. Finally, we show that large-scale spatial simulations are preferable over repetitions at smaller spatial scales in identifying the presence of scaling relations in spatially self-organized ecosystems. Hence, the study of scaling laws in ecology may benefit significantly from implementation of ecological models on graphics processors.     

Social parasitism of queens and workers in the Cape honeybee (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Apis mellifera capensis</Emphasis>)

Workers of a queenless honeybee colony can requeen the colony by raising a new queen from a young worker brood laid by the old queen. If this process fails, the colony becomes hopelessly queenless and workers activate their ovaries to lay eggs themselves. Laying Cape honeybee workers (Apis mellifera capensis) produce female offspring as an additional pathway for requeening. We tested the frequency of successful requeening in ten hopelessly queenless colonies. DNA genotyping revealed that only 8% of all queens reared in hopelessly queenless colonies were the offspring of native laying worker offspring. The vast majority of queens resulted from parasitic takeovers by foreign queens (27%) and invading parasitic workers (19%). This shows that hopelessly queenless colonies typically die due to parasitic takeovers and that the parasitic laying workers are an important life history strategy more frequently used than in providing a native queen to rescue the colony. Parasitism by foreign queens, which might enter colonies alone or accompanied by only a small worker force is much more frequent than previously considered and constitutes an additional life history strategy in Cape honeybees.     

Influence of americium-241 on the microbial population and biodegradation of organic waste

The present study investigated the influence of ²⁴¹Am on microbial growth and the degradation of organic waste. Leachate samples collected in a lysimeter were periodically analyzed for bacterial growth, under both aerobic and anaerobic conditions. ²⁴¹Am inhibited bacterial growth, and the degradation of organic matter was delayed in comparison with the control. Minimal inhibitory concentration assays and survival curves revealed that it inhibits the growth of Pseudomonas putida F1. The assay also revealed that ²⁴¹Am is more toxic than ²³⁸U, Zn²⁺ and Cd²⁺. This study further led to the finding of four new radionuclide-tolerant bacterial strains: Flavobacterium spp., Pseudomonas gladioli, Chryseobacterium indologenes and Ochrobactrum anthropi. The survival curves of P. gladioli, C. indologenes revealed that these bacteria are resistant to metal as consortia.     

Mass balance in the monitoring of pollutants in tidal rivers of the Guanabara Bay, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

This study addressed the identification and monitoring of pollution sources of terrestrial origin in rivers (domestic sewage and industrial effluents) and critical fluvial segments in highly polluted environments under tidal influence (mixing marine and continental sources) from Guanabara Bay Basin, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The mass balance of contaminants was determined in conditions of continuous flow (low tide) during dry season (lower dilution capability). The results allowed the evaluation of the potential of contaminant mass generation by the different river segments and the estimation of their natural and anthropogenic components. The water quality of Igua?ú and Sarapuí Rivers were evaluated for metals and biochemical oxygen demand. The method gave an excellent response, including the possibility of sources identification and contaminated river segments ranking. The approach also offers fast execution and data interpretation, being highly efficient.