Hydrological change--climate change impact simulations for Sweden

Climate change resulting from the enhanced greenhouse effect is expected to give rise to changes in hydrological systems. This hydrological change, as with the change in climate variables, will vary regionally around the globe. Impact studies at local and regional scales are needed to assess how different regions will be affected. This study focuses on assessment of hydrological impacts of climate change over a wide range of Swedish basins. Different methods of transferring the signal of climate change from climate models to hydrological models were used. Several hydrological model simulations using regional climate model scenarios from Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme (SWECLIM) are presented. A principal conclusion is that subregional impacts to river flow vary considerably according to whether a basin is in northern or southern Sweden. Furthermore, projected hydrological change is just as dependent on the choice of the global climate model used for regional climate model boundary conditions as the choice of anthropogenic emissions scenario.     

Assessment of Bilateral Thoracic Loading on the Near-Side Occupant Due to Occupant-to-Occupant Interaction in Vehicle Crash Tests

Objective: This study aims, by means of the WorldSID 50th percentile male, to evaluate thoracic loading and injury risk to the near-side occupant due to occupant-to-occupant interaction in combination with loading from an intruding structure.

Method: Nine vehicle crash tests were performed with a 50th percentile WorldSID male dummy in the near-side (adjacent to the intruding structure) seat and a THOR or ES2 dummy in the far-side (opposite the intruding structure) seat. The near-side seated WorldSID was equipped with 6 + 6 IR-Traccs (LH and RH) in the thorax/abdomen enabling measurement of bilateral deflection. To differentiate deflection caused by the intrusion, and the deflection caused by the neighboring occupant, time history curves were analyzed. The crash tests were performed with different modern vehicles, equipped with thorax side airbags and inflatable curtains, ranging from a compact car to a large sedan, and in different loading conditions such as car-to-car, barrier, and pole tests. Lateral delta V based on vehicle tunnel acceleration and maximum residual intrusion at occupant position were used as a measurement of crash severity to compare injury measurements.

Result: In the 9 vehicle crash tests, thoracic loading, induced by the intruding structure as well as from the far-side occupant, varied due to the size and structural performance of the car as well as the severity of the crash. Peak deflection on the thoracic outboard side occurred during the first 50 ms of the event. Between 70 to 150 ms loading induced by the neighboring occupant occurred and resulted in an inboard-side peak deflection and viscous criterion. In the tests where the target vehicle lateral delta V was below 30 km/h and intrusion less than 200 mm, deflections were low on both the outboard (20–40 mm) and inboard side (10–15 mm). At higher crash severities, delta V 35 km/h and above as well as intrusions larger than 350 mm, the inboard deflections (caused by interaction to the far-side occupant) were of the same magnitude or even higher (30–70 mm) than the outboard deflections (30–50 mm).

Conclusion: A WorldSID 50th percentile male equipped with bilateral IR-Traccs can detect loading to the thorax from a neighboring occupant making injury risk assessment feasible for this type of loading. At crash severities resulting in a delta V above 35 km/h and intrusions larger than 350 mm, both the inboard deflection and VC resulted in high risks of Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 3+ injury, especially for a senior occupant.     

Biofidelity Corridors for Sternum Kinematics in Low-Speed Side Impacts

Objective: Field data show that side impact car crashes have become responsible for a greater proportion of the fatal crashes compared to frontal crashes, which suggests that the protection gained in frontal impact has not been matched in side impact. One of the reasons is the lack of understanding of the torso injury mechanisms in side impact. In particular, the deformation of the rib cage and how it affects the mechanical loading of the individual ribs have yet to be established. Therefore, the objective of this study was to characterize the ribcage deformation in side impacts by describing the kinematics of the sternum relative to the spine.

Methods: The 3D kinematics of the 1st and of the 5th or 6th thoracic vertebrae and of the sternum were obtained for three Post Mortem Human Subjects (PMHS) impacted laterally by a rigid wall traveling at 15 km/h. The experimental data were processed to express the kinematics of the sternum relative to the spine throughout the impact event. Methods were developed to interpolate the kinematics of the vertebrae for which experimental data were not available.

Results: The kinematics of the sternocostal junction for ribs 1 to 6 as well as the orientation of the sternum were expressed in the vertebra coordinate systems defined for each upper thoracic vertebra (T1 to T6). Corridors were designed for the motion of the sternum relative to each vertebra. In the experiments, the sternum moved upward for all rib levels (1 to 6), and away from the spine with an amplitude that increased with the decreasing rib level (from rib 1 to rib 6). None of the differences observed in the kinematics could be correlated to the occurrence of rib fractures.

Conclusions: This study provides both qualitative and quantitative information for the ribcage skeletal kinematics in side impact. This data set provides the information required to better evaluate computational models of the thorax for side impact simulations. The corridors developed in this study provide new biofidelity targets for the impact response of the ribcage. This study contributes to augmenting the state of knowledge of the human chest deformation in side impact to better characterize the rib fracture mechanisms.