Comparing universal kriging and land-use regression for predicting concentrations of gaseous oxides of nitrogen (NOx) for the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air)

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies that assess the health effects of long-term exposure to ambient air pollution are used to inform public policy. These studies rely on exposure models that use data collected from pollution monitoring sites to predict exposures at subject locations. Land use regression (LUR) and universal kriging (UK) have been suggested as potential prediction methods. We evaluate these approaches on a dataset including measurements from three seasons in Los Angeles, CA. METHODS: The measurements of gaseous oxides of nitrogen (NOx) used in this study are from a "snapshot" sampling campaign that is part of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air). The measurements in Los Angeles were collected during three two-week periods in the summer, autumn, and winter, each with about 150 sites. The design included clusters of monitors on either side of busy roads to capture near-field gradients of traffic-related pollution. LUR and UK prediction models were created using geographic information system (GIS)-based covariates. Selection of covariates was based on 10-fold cross-validated (CV) R(2) and root mean square error (RMSE). Since UK requires specialized software, a computationally simpler two-step procedure was also employed to approximate fitting the UK model using readily available regression and GIS software. RESULTS: UK models consistently performed as well as or better than the analogous LUR models. The best CV R(2) values for season-specific UK models predicting log(NOx) were 0.75, 0.72, and 0.74 (CV RMSE 0.20, 0.17, and 0.15) for summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. The best CV R(2) values for season-specific LUR models predicting log(NOx) were 0.74, 0.60, and 0.67 (CV RMSE 0.20, 0.20, and 0.17). The two-stage approximation to UK also performed better than LUR and nearly as well as the full UK model with CV R(2) values 0.75, 0.70, and 0.70 (CV RMSE 0.20, 0.17, and 0.17) for summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. CONCLUSION: High quality LUR and UK prediction models for NOx in Los Angeles were developed for the three seasons based on data collected for MESA Air. In our study, UK consistently outperformed LUR. Similarly, the 2-step approach was more effective than the LUR models, with performance equal to or slightly worse than UK.     

Using process-based models to filter out natural variability in observed concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus in river water

Advances in process-based modelling of loads of nitrogen and phosphorus carried by rivers have created new possibilities to interpret time series of water quality data. We examined how model runs with constant anthropogenic forcing can be used to estimate and filter out weather-driven variation in observational data and, thereby, draw attention to other features of such data. An assessment of measured and modelled nutrient concentrations at the outlets of 45 Swedish rivers provided promising results for total nitrogen. In particular, joint analyses of observational data and outputs from the catchment model S-HYPE strengthened the evidence that downward trends in nitrogen were due to mitigation measures in agriculture. Evaluation of modelled and observed total phosphorus concentrations revealed considerable bias in the collection or chemical analysis of water samples and also identified weaknesses in the model outputs. Together, our results highlight the need for more efficient two-way communication between environmental modelling and monitoring.     

Levels of perfluorochemicals in water samples from Catalonia,Spain: is drinking water a significant contribution to human exposure?

Background, aim, and scope  In recent years, due to a high persistence, biomagnification in food webs, presence in remote regions, and potential toxicity, perfluorochemicals (PFCs) have generated a considerable interest. The present study was aimed to determine the levels of perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS), perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), and other PFCs in drinking water (tap and bottled) and river water samples from Tarragona Province (Catalonia, Spain). Materials and methods  Municipal drinking (tap) water samples were collected from the four most populated towns in the Tarragona Province, whereas samples of bottled waters were purchased from supermarkets. River water samples were collected from the Ebro (two samples), Cortiella, and Francolí Rivers. After pretreatment, PFC analyses were performed by HPLC-MS. Quantification was done using the internal standard method, with recoveries between 68% and 118%. Results  In tap water, PFOS and PFOA levels ranged between 0.39 and 0.87 ng/L (0.78 and 1.74 pmol/L) and between 0.32 and 6.28 ng/L (0.77 and 15.2 pmol/L), respectively. PFHpA, PFHxS, and PFNA were also other detected PFCs. PFC levels were notably lower in bottled water, where PFOS could not be detected in any sample. Moreover, PFHpA, PFHxS, PFOA, PFNA, PFOS, PFOSA, and PFDA could be detected in the river water samples. PFOS and PFOA concentrations were between <0.24 and 5.88 ng/L (<0.48 and 11.8 pmol/L) and between <0.22 and 24.9 ng/L (<0.53 and 60.1 pmol/L), respectively. Discussion  Assuming a human water consumption of 2 L per day, the daily intake of PFOS and PFOA by the population of the area under evaluation was calculated (0.78–1.74 and 12.6 ng, respectively). It was found that drinking water might be a source of exposure to PFCs as important as the dietary intake of these pollutants. Conclusions  The contribution of drinking water (tap and bottled) to the human daily intake of various PFCs has been compared for the first time with data from dietary intake of these PFCs. It was noted that in certain cases, drinking water can be a source of exposure to PFCs as important as the dietary intake of these pollutants although the current concentrations were similar or lower than those reported in the literature for surface water samples from a number of regions and countries. Recommendations and perspectives  Further studies should be carried out in order to increase the knowledge of the role of drinking water in human exposure to PFCs.     

Recent mild and wet years in relation to long observation records and future climate change in Sweden

Recent mild and wet years in Sweden were compared with long observation series of temperature, precipitation and runoff. Spatial average series for northern and southern Sweden were constructed and analyzed for the period 1901-2002. Precipitation increased considerably during the period, whereas temperature and runoff increases were weaker. On average, for the whole country, the differences between the period 1991-2002 and 1901-1990 were +0.7 degrees C for temperature, +11% in precipitation and +7% in runoff. The differences in temperature and precipitation, but not runoff, were significant at the 5% level. However, the 1930s were equally mild, and the runoff was almost as high in the 1920s. The characteristic feature of the past decade is the combination of high temperature, precipitation and runoff. The deviation between the most recent decade and the preceding years is consistent with climate scenario projections for Sweden, but there are also differences in the seasonal pattern.     

Evaluation of the Galega-Rhizobium galegae system for the bioremediation of oil-contaminated soil

The bioremediation potential of a nitrogen-fixing leguminous plant, Galega orientalis, and its microsymbiont Rhizobium galegae was evaluated in BTX (benzene, toluene, xylene)-contaminated soils in microcosm and mesocosm scale. To measure the intrinsic tolerance of the organisms to m-toluate, a model compound representing BTX, G. orientalis and R. galegae were cultivated under increasing concentrations of m-toluate alone and in association with Pseudomonas putida pWWO, a bacterial strain able to degrade toluene-derived compounds. The test plants and rhizobia remained viable in m-toluate concentrations as high as 3000 ppm. Plant growth was inhibited in concentrations higher than 500 ppm, but restituted when plants were transferred into m-toluate-free medium. Nodulation was blocked under the influence of m-toluate, but was restored after the plants were transferred into the non-contaminated media. In the mesocosm assay the Galega plants showed good growth, nodulation and nitrogen fixation, and developed a strong rhizosphere in soils contaminated with oil or spiked with 2000 ppm m-toluate. Thus, this legume system has good potential for use on oil-contaminated sites     

Body condition and the grouping behavior of brood-caring female common eiders (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Somateria mollissima</Emphasis>)

Both theoretical and empirical work has shown that group size increases with increasing ecological constraints on solitary breeding. Ecological constraints refer to extrinsic factors such as availability of breeding sites, food or mates. Common eider (Somateria mollissima) females pool their broods and share brood-rearing duties, or rear broods alone. Females are often in poor condition at hatching, as incubation is accomplished without feeding, and variation in body condition is largely environmentally induced and thus unpredictable. We found that the intensity of and duration of parental care that females provide is positively correlated with their body condition at hatching. This suggests that body condition is an ecological constraint on successful solitary breeding. We further observed that group productivity in common eider broods is a decelerating function of the number of tending females. As predicted, females in poorer condition (i.e., facing stronger ecological constraints) were found in larger groups. This result is straightforward if solitary tenders can enter any group at no cost. However, if entry is group-controlled, stable groups of non-relatives are predicted not to occur when per capita reproduction declines with group size. The N-person staying incentive model permits groups to form under these conditions, because reproduction is unevenly divided between dominants and subordinates in the group. We discuss the plausibility of these alternative models of group size for understanding the grouping behavior of brood-caring female common eiders.Communicated by M. Webster     

Food access, brood size and filial cannibalism in the fantail darter, Etheostoma flabellare

We compared the occurrence of filial cannibalism in fed and starved male fantail darters (Etheostoma flabellare). All males in the experiment consumed eggs, and 56% ate all of their eggs. A male's initial body condition did not explain the number of eggs that he ate. Neither did non-fed males eat more eggs than fed males. Fed males were able to maintain better body condition during the experiment, but the change in body condition also depended on the number of eggs eaten. Thus, males who ate more eggs were able to maintain better body condition.The most important determinant of whether or not a male ate all of his eggs was his initial egg number. Males with small egg masses ate all of their eggs whereas males with large egg masses were only partial cannibals. There was, however, no difference in the total number of eggs eaten by total and partial cannibals. We conclude that eggs are only partially eaten for energetic reasons. We also suggest that small egg masses are completely consumed because the costs of caring for a small egg mass may exceed the expected reproductive benefits of a small egg mass. Received: 26 January 1996 / Accepted after revision: 2 November 1996     

Is asynchronous hatching adaptive in herring gulls (Larus argentatus)?

Hatching asynchrony commonly induces a size hierarchy among siblings and the resultant competition for food between siblings can often lead to starvation of the smallest chicks within a brood. We created herring gull (Larus argentatus) broods with varying degrees of hatching synchrony by manipulating the timing of incubation while maintaining the originally laid eggs. The degree of hatching asynchrony affected sibling size hierarchy at the time of hatching of the last-hatched ”c-chick.” In unmanipulated broods, there was no disadvantage of being a c-chick. However, when asynchrony was experimentally increased, we found reduced survival of the c-chick only in the exaggerated asynchronous experimental group. The effects were observable only during the first 10 days of chick life. We recorded no cases of the chicks dying of starvation. Furthermore, behavioral observations indicated that there was no sibling competition, and no selective feeding of larger sibs in the study colony. We propose that the observed lower survival rates of c-chicks in exaggerated asynchronous broods resulted from their lesser motor abilities, affecting their chances of escaping predators. Fledging success for the whole colony was generally high and almost half of all pairs fledged all three chicks, which is indicative of a good feeding environment. We argue that normal hatching asynchrony is a favorable solution in a good feeding environment, but that increased asynchrony reduces breeding success. We do not view asynchrony in the herring gull as an adaptation for brood reduction and propose instead that it may come about because there has been selection for incubation to start before clutch completion. Received: 14 April 1999 / Received in revised form: 20 October 1999 / Accepted: 23 January 2000     

Parameter precision in the HBV-NP model and impacts on nitrogen scenario simulations in the Rönneå river, southern Sweden

The HBV-NP model is a newly developed water quality model that describes the turnover and fluxes of both nitrogen and phosphorous. It is based on the conceptual precipitation/runoff HBV model. The HBV-NP model was applied for simulation of nitrogen for the R?nne? catchment in southern Sweden. The catchment was divided into 64 subcatchments in the model. Discharge measurements from six stations and nitrogen measurements from 12 stations were used in the calibration of parameters in the model. Eight automatic calibrations were performed with different combinations of time periods, objective functions, and levels of the nitrogen load in the model. A regionally extended interpretation of the Nash-Sutcliffe R2 criterion was used in the calibration. In the evaluation of the criterion, the errors were summed over both time steps and sampling points. Scenario simulations of combined measures for reduction of nitrogen load into the sea by 30% were thereafter performed with the eight sets of parameters established by calibration. The model parameters were not uniquely defined by the calibration. However, the simulated relative reduction of nitrogen load into the sea was relatively insensitive to the choice of parameter set, given the available input sources, variables, and data.     

Algal blooms decrease care but increase egg survival in a fish with paternal care

Human-induced eutrophication, resulting in algal blooms and increased water turbidity, is an alarming problem in aquatic systems. Here, we experimentally tested the impact of algal turbidity on parental care, egg fanning, and time in the nest, in the sand goby, Pomatoschistus minutus, a fish with uniparental male care. We allowed males to care for their eggs in either clear water or water made turbid by planktonic algae. In the early brood cycle, males fanned their eggs less in turbid than in clear water, but this difference disappeared later. Despite decreased care, egg survival was higher in turbid conditions, indicating that early fanning may partly be redundant for egg survival and perhaps used more as courtship. Males also spent more time out of their nest in turbid water, perhaps as a means to encounter additional females under conditions of low visibility.