Growth of the Decision Tree: Advances in Bottom‐Up Climate Change Risk Management

There has recently been a return in climate change risk management practice to bottom‐up, robustness‐based planning paradigms introduced 40 years ago. The World Bank's decision tree framework (DTF) for “confronting climate uncertainty” is one incarnation of those paradigms. In order to better represent the state of the art in climate change risk assessment and evaluation techniques, this paper proposes: (1) an update to the DTF, replacing its “climate change stress test” with a multidimensional stress test; and (2) the addition of a Bayesian network framework that represents joint probabilistic behavior of uncertain parameters as sensitivity factors to aid in the weighting of scenarios of concern (the combination of conditions under which a water system fails to meet its performance targets). Using the updated DTF, water system planners and project managers would be better able to understand the relative magnitudes of the varied risks they face, and target investments in adaptation measures to best reduce their vulnerabilities to change. Next steps for the DTF include enhancements in: modeling of extreme event risks; coupling of human‐hydrologic systems; integration of surface water and groundwater systems; the generation of tradeoffs between economic, social, and ecological factors; incorporation of water quality considerations; and interactive data visualization.     

Measurements of primary trace gases and NOY composition in Houston,Texas

Concentrations of CO, SO₂, NO, NO₂, and NO_Y were measured atop the University of Houston's Moody Tower supersite during the 2006 TexAQS-II Radical and Aerosol Measurement Project (TRAMP). The lowest concentrations of all primary and secondary species were observed in clean marine air in southerly flow. SO₂ concentrations were usually low, but increased dramatically in sporadic midday plumes advected from sources in the Houston Ship Channel (HSC), located NE of the site. Concentrations of CO and NO_x displayed large diurnal variations in keeping with their co-emission by mobile sources in the Houston Metropolitan Area (HMA). CO/NO_x emission ratios of 5.81 ± 0.94 were observed in the morning rush hour. Nighttime concentrations of NO_x (NO_x = NO + NO₂) and NO_Y (NO_Y = NO + NO₂ + NO₃ + HNO₃ + HONO + 21N₂O₅ + HO₂NO₂ + PANs + RONO₂ + p-NO₃^? + …) were highest in winds from the NNW-NE due to emission from mobile sources. Median ratios of NO_x/NO_Y were approximately 0.9 overnight, reflecting the persistence and/or generation of NO_Z (NO_Z = NO_Y ? NO_x) species in the nighttime Houston boundary layer, and approached unity in the morning rush hour. Daytime concentrations of NO_x and NO_Y were highest in winds from the HSC. NO_x/NO_Y ratios reached their minimum values (median ca 0.63) from 1300 to 1500 CST, near local solar noon, and air masses often retained enough NO_x to sustain additional O₃ formation farther downwind. HNO₃ and PANs comprised the dominant NO_Z species in the HMA, and on a median basis represented 17–20% and 12–15% of NO_Y, respectively, at midday. Concentrations of HNO₃, PANs, and NO_Z, and fractional contributions of these species to NO_Y, were at a maximum in NE flow, reflecting the source strength and reactivity of precursor emissions in the HSC. As a result, daytime O₃ concentrations were highest in air masses with HSC influence. Overall, our findings confirm the impact of the HSC as a dominant source region within the HMA. A comparison of total NO_Y measurements with the sum of measured NO_Y species (NO_Yi = NO_x + HNO₃ + PANs + HONO + p-NO₃^?) yielded excellent overall agreement during both day ([NO_Y](ppb) = ([NO_Yi](ppb)11.03 ± 0.16) ? 0.42; r² = 0.9933) and night ([NO_Y](ppb) = ([NO_Yi](ppb)11.01 ± 0.16) + 0.18; r² = 0.9975). A similar comparison between NO_Y–NO_x concentrations and the sum of NO_Zi (NO_Zi = HNO₃ + PANs + HONO + p-NO₃^?) yielded good overall agreement during the day ([NO_Z](ppb) = ([NO_Zi](ppb)11.01 ± 0.30) + 0.044 ppb; r² = 0.8527) and at night ([NO_Z](ppb) = ([NO_Zi](ppb)11.12 ± 0.69) + 0.16 ppb; r² = 0.6899). Median ratios of NO_Z/NO_Zi were near unity during daylight hours but increased to approximately 1.2 overnight, a difference of 0.15–0.50 ppb. Differences between NO_Z and NO_Zi rarely exceeded combined measurement uncertainties, and variations in NO_Z/NO_Zi ratios may have resulted solely from errors in conversion efficiencies of NO_Y species and changes in NO_Y composition. However, nighttime NO_Z/NO_Zi ratios and the magnitude of NO_Z ? NO_Zi differences were generally consistent with recent observations of ClNO₂ in the nocturnal Houston boundary layer.     

Microcosm investigations of stormwater pond sediment toxicity to embryonic and larval amphibians: variation in sensitivity among species

Stormwater ponds have become common features of modern development and often represent significant amounts of open space in urbanized areas. Although stormwater ponds may provide habitat for wildlife, factors responsible for producing variation in wildlife use of ponds have received limited attention. To investigate the role of variation in species tolerances of pollutants in structuring pond-breeding amphibian assemblages, we exposed species tolerant (Bufo americanus) and not tolerant (Rana sylvatica) of urbanization to pond sediments in laboratory microcosms. Pond microcosms had elevated sediment metal levels and chloride water concentrations. Among R. sylvatica embryos, exposure to pond sediments resulted in 100% mortality. In contrast, B. americanus embryos and larvae experienced only sublethal effects (i.e., reduced size at metamorphosis) due to pond sediment exposure. Our results suggest variation in pollutant tolerance among early developmental stages of amphibians may act in concert with terrestrial habitat availability to structure amphibian assemblages associated with stormwater ponds.     

Cranial biomechanics of Diplodocus (Dinosauria, Sauropoda): testing hypotheses of feeding behaviour in an extinct megaherbivore

Sauropod dinosaurs were the largest terrestrial herbivores and pushed at the limits of vertebrate biomechanics and physiology. Sauropods exhibit high craniodental diversity in ecosystems where numerous species co-existed, leading to the hypothesis that this biodiversity is linked to niche subdivision driven by ecological specialisation. Here, we quantitatively investigate feeding behaviour hypotheses for the iconic sauropod Diplodocus. Biomechanical modelling, using finite element analysis, was used to examine the performance of the Diplodocus skull. Three feeding behaviours were modelled: muscle-driven static biting, branch stripping and bark stripping. The skull was found to be ‘over engineered’ for static biting, overall experiencing low stress with only the dentition enduring high stress. When branch stripping, the skull, similarly, is under low stress, with little appreciable difference between those models. When simulated for bark stripping, the skull experiences far greater stresses, especially in the teeth and at the jaw joint. Therefore, we refute the bark-stripping hypothesis, while the hypotheses of branch stripping and/or precision biting are both consistent with our findings, showing that branch stripping is a biomechanically plausible feeding behaviour for diplodocids. Interestingly, in all simulations, peak stress is observed in the premaxillary–maxillary ‘lateral plates’, supporting the hypothesis that these structures evolved to dissipate stress induced while feeding. These results lead us to conclude that the aberrant craniodental form of Diplodocus was adapted for food procurement rather than resisting high bite forces.     

Food contamination as a pathway for lead exposure in children during the 2010–2013 lead poisoning epidemic in Zamfara, Nigeria

In 2010, an estimated 400 to 500 children died of acute lead poisoning associated with artisanal gold mining in Zamfara, Nigeria. Processing of gold ores containing up to 10% lead within residential compounds put residents, especially children, at the highest risk. Principal routes of exposure were incidental ingestion and inhalation of contaminated soil and dusts. Several Nigerian and international health organizations collaborated to reduce lead exposures through environmental remediation and medical treatment. The contribution of contaminated food to total lead exposure was assessed during the environmental health response. Objectives of this investigation were to assess the influence of cultural/dietary habits on lead exposure pathways and estimate the contribution of contaminated food to children's blood lead levels(BLLs). A survey of village dietary practices and staple food lead content was conducted to determine dietary composition, caloric intakes, and lead intake. Potential blood lead increments were estimated using bio-kinetic modeling techniques. Most dietary lead exposure was associated with contamination of staple cereal grains and legumes during post-harvest processing and preparation in contaminated homes. Average post-harvest and processed cereal grain lead levels were 0.32 mg/kg and 0.85 mg/kg dry weight, respectively. Age-specific food lead intake ranged from 7 to 78 μg/day. Lead ingestion and absorption were likely aggravated by the dusty environment, fasting between meals, and nutritional deficiencies. Contamination of staple cereal grains by highly bioavailable pulverized ores could account for as much as 11%–34% of children's BLLs during the epidemic, and were a continuing source after residential soil remediation until stored grain inventories were exhausted.     

EFFECTIVENESS OF TIMBER HARVEST PRACTICES FOR CONTROLLING SEDIMENT RELATED WATER QUALITY IMPACTS1

ABSTRACT: Timber harvest best management practices (BMPs) in Washington State were evaluated to determine their effectiveness at achieving water quality standards pertaining to sediment related effects. A weight‐of‐evidence approach was used to determine BMP effectiveness based on assessment of erosion with sediment delivery to streams, physical disturbance of stream channels, and aquatic habitat conditions during the first two years following harvest. Stream buffers were effective at preventing chronic sediment delivery to streams and physical disturbance of stream channels. Practices for ground‐based harvest and cable yarding in the vicinity of small streams without buffers were ineffective or only partially effective at preventing water quality impacts. The primary operational factors influencing BMP effectiveness were: the proximity of ground disturbing activities to streams; presence or absence of designated stream buffers; the use of special timber falling and yarding practices intended to minimize physical disturbance of stream channels; and timing of harvest to occur during snow cover or frozen ground conditions. Important site factors included the density of small streams at harvest sites and the steepness of inner stream valley slopes. Recommendations are given for practices that provide a high confidence of achieving water quality standards by preventing chronic sediment delivery and avoiding direct stream channel disturbance.     

上海地区霾时气溶胶类型垂直分布的季节变化

采用上海地区2007年1月~2010年11月CALIPSO星载激光雷达Level 2反演资料,对清洁海洋型、沙尘型、大陆污染型、大陆清洁型、污染沙尘型和烟尘型等类型气溶胶垂直分布进行了分析,研究了其季节变化规律.结果表明:霾发生时0~2km高度烟尘型气溶胶出现频率明显高于非霾时,而在2~8km高度,沙尘型、污染沙尘型与大陆污染型明显高于非霾时.0~2km高度春季霾大陆污染型气溶胶出现频率高于其他季节;0~2km夏季污染沙尘型气溶胶与海洋型气溶胶出现频率均高于其他季节,特别是污染沙尘型;秋季霾期间,0~2km高度范围内烟尘型出现频率明显高于2~6km高度;冬季污染沙尘型、烟尘、大陆污染型气溶胶出现频率高于其他季节.     

Trends and Seasonality in the Nitrate Concentrations and Loads of the Bere Stream (Dorset) for the Period 1966-1986

Neutron activation analysis was used for the determination of the elemental composition of different plants and soils. Variations in concentrations of elements during the day were found. Mean concentrations, standard deviations and relationships between elements in soils and different parts of plants were studied. It was shown that the behaviour of chemical elements in samples from urban and unpolluted areas have significant differences.