Assessing the potential for greenhouse gas mitigation in intensively managed annual cropping systems at the regional scale

We predicted changes in yields and direct net soil greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes from converting conventional to alternative management practices across one of the world's most productive agricultural regions, the Central Valley of California, using the DAYCENT model. Alternative practices included conservation tillage, winter cover cropping, manure application, a 25% reduction in N fertilizer input and combinations of these. Alternative practices were evaluated for all unique combinations of crop rotation, climate, and soil types for the period 1997-2006. The crops included were alfalfa, corn, cotton, melon, safflower, sunflower, tomato, and wheat. Our predictions indicate that, adopting alternative management practices would decrease yields up to 5%. Changes in modeled SOC and net soil GHG fluxes corresponded to values reported in the literature. Average potential reductions of net soil GHG fluxes with alternative practices ranged from −0.7 to −3.3 Mg CO₂-eq ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ in the Sacramento Valley and −0.5 to −2.5 Mg CO₂-eq ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ for the San Joaquin Valley. While adopting a single alternative practice led to modest net soil GHG flux reductions (on average −1 Mg CO₂-eq ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹), combining two or more of these practices led to greater decreases in net soil GHG fluxes of up to −3 Mg CO₂-eq ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹. At the regional scale, the combination of winter cover cropping with manure application was particularly efficient in reducing GHG emissions. However, GHG mitigation potentials were mostly non-permanent because 60-80% of the decreases in net soil GHG fluxes were attributed to increases in SOC, except for the reduced fertilizer input practice, where reductions were mainly attributed to decreased N₂O emissions. In conclusion, there are long-term GHG mitigation potentials within agriculture, but spatial and temporal aggregation will be necessary to reduce uncertainties around GHG emission reductions and the delivery risk of the associated C credits.     

Modeling Large Fire Frequency and Burned Area in Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystems with Poisson Models

Large wildland fires are major disturbances that strongly influence the carbon cycling and vegetation dynamics of Canadian boreal ecosystems. Although large wildland fires have recently received much scrutiny in scientific study, it is still a challenge for researchers to predict large fire frequency and burned area. Here, we use monthly climate and elevation data to quantify the frequency of large fires using a Poisson model, and we calculate the probability of burned area exceeding a certain size using a compound Poisson process. We find that the Poisson model simulates large fire occurrence well during the fire season (May through August) using monthly climate, and the threshold probability calculated by the compound Poisson model agrees well with historical records. Threshold probabilities are significantly different among different Canadian ecozones, with the Boreal Shield ecozone always showing the highest probability. The fire prediction model described in this study and the derived information will facilitate future quantification of fire risks and help improve fire management in the region.     

Assessment of Spatiotemporal Varying Relationships Between Rainfall,Land Cover and Surface Water Area Using Geographically Weighted Regression

Traditional regression techniques such as ordinary least squares (OLS) are often unable to accurately model spatially varying data and may ignore or hide local variations in model coefficients. A relatively new technique, geographically weighted regression (GWR) has been shown to greatly improve model performance compared to OLS in terms of higher R ² and lower corrected Akaike information criterion (AIC_C). GWR models have the potential to improve reliabilities of the identified relationships by reducing spatial autocorrelations and by accounting for local variations and spatial non-stationarity between dependent and independent variables. In this study, GWR was used to examine the relationship between land cover, rainfall and surface water habitat in 149 sub-catchments in a predominately agricultural region covering 2.6 million ha in southeast Australia. The application of the GWR models revealed that the relationships between land cover, rainfall and surface water habitat display significant spatial non-stationarity. GWR showed improvements over analogous OLS models in terms of higher R ² and lower AIC_C. The increased explanatory power of GWR was confirmed by the results of an approximate likelihood ratio test, which showed statistically significant improvements over analogous OLS models. The models suggest that the amount of surface water area in the landscape is related to anthropogenic drainage practices enhancing runoff to facilitate intensive agriculture and increased plantation forestry. However, with some key variables not present in our analysis, the strength of this relationship could not be qualified. GWR techniques have the potential to serve as a useful tool for environmental research and management across a broad range of scales for the investigation of spatially varying relationships.     

Triclocarban: UV photolysis,wastewater disinfection,and ecotoxicity assessment using molecular biomarkers

Triclocarban (TCC) is an antibacterial agent found in pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCP). It is potentially bioaccumulative and an endocrine disruptor, being classified as a contaminant of emerging concern (CEC). In normal uses, approximately 96% of the used TCC can be washed down the drain going into the sewer system and eventually enter in the aquatic environment. UV photolysis can be used to photodegrade TCC and ecotoxicity assays could indicate the photodegradation efficiency, since the enormous structural diversity of photoproducts and their low concentrations do not always allow to identify and quantify them. In this work, the TCC was efficiently degraded by UVC direct photolysis and the ecotoxicity of the UV-treated mixtures was investigated. Bioassays indicates that Daphnia similis (48 h EC₅₀ = 0.044 μM) was more sensitive to TCC than Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata (72 h IC₅₀ = 1.01 μM). TCC and its photoproducts caused significant effects on Eisenia andrei biochemical responses (catalase and glutathione-S-transferase); 48 h was a critical exposure time, since GST reached the highest activity values. UVC reduced the TCC toxic effect after 120 min. Furthermore, TCC was photodegraded in domestic wastewater which was simultaneously disinfected for total coliform bacterial (TCB) (360 min) and Escherichia coli (60 min).

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Graphical abstract TCC degradation and ecotoxicological assessment

     

Regional impervious surface estimation: an urban heat island application

This paper describes a GIS-based estimation method that can be used to forecast future amounts of impervious surface as a mitigation measure for urban heat island effect in a metropolitan region. The method is unique because it employs a regression model that links the existing amount of impervious surface to population and employment at the census tract level. This approach provides a means to forecast future amounts of impervious surface based on projected population and employment. The method also includes a detailed analysis of high-resolution aerial photography to divide impervious surfaces into different categories. Subdividing impervious surfaces is necessary to evaluate potential urban heat island mitigation policies for different types of impervious surface. The analysis here shows that the impervious surface in the metropolitan Atlanta region will increase to 2638 km2 2. “The Albedo is defined as the hemispherical reflectivity averaged over the solar spectrum. A perfect reflector has a = 1, and a perfect absorber has a = 0” (Pomerantz et al. 1999 Pomerantz, M. 1999. Reflective surfaces for cooler buildings and cities. Philosophical magazine B, 79: 1457–1476. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar], p. 1458). View all notes in 2030, an increase of 45% from 2000. The most common type of impervious surface is dark-coloured pavement. Within this study area, the analyses showed that two-thirds of impervious surfaces are dark. Replacing dark pavement with light pavement materials, therefore, represents an important opportunity to mitigate the urban heat island effect in the Atlanta region.     

Development of a Quantitative Pasture Phosphorus Management Tool Using the SWAT Model1

Abstract: Assessment tools to evaluate phosphorus loss from agricultural lands allow conservation planners to evaluate the impact of management decisions on water quality. Available tools to predict phosphorus loss from agricultural fields are either: (1) qualitative indices with limited applicability to address offsite water quality standards, or (2) models which are prohibitively complex for application by most conservation planners. The purpose of this research was to develop a simple interface for a comprehensive hydrologic/water quality model to allow its usage by farmers and conservation planners. The Pasture Phosphorus Management (PPM) Calculator was developed to predict average annual phosphorus (P) losses from pastures under a variety of field conditions and management options. PPM Calculator is a vastly simplified interface for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model that requires no knowledge of SWAT by the user. PPM Calculator was validated using 33 months of data on four pasture fields in northwestern Arkansas. This tool has been extensively applied in the Lake Eucha/Spavinaw Basin in northeastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas. PPM Calculator allows conservation planners to take advantage of the predictive capacity of a comprehensive hydrologic water quality model typically reserved for use by hydrologists and engineers. This research demonstrates the applicability of existing water quality models in the development of user friendly P management tools.     

The response of hydrophobic organics and potential toxicity in streams to urbanization of watersheds in six metropolitan areas of the United States

Semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs) were deployed in streams along a gradient of urban land-use intensity in and around six metropolitan areas: Atlanta, Georgia; Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina; and Denver-Fort Collins, Colorado, in 2003; and Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas; Milwaukee-Green Bay, Wisconsin; and Portland, Oregon, in 2004 to examine relations between percent urban land cover in watersheds and the occurrence, concentrations, and potential toxicity of hydrophobic compounds. Of the 142 endpoints measured in SPMD dialysates, 30 were significantly (alpha = 0.05) related to the percent of urban land cover in the watersheds in at least one metropolitan area. These 30 endpoints included the aggregated measures of the total number of compounds detected and relative toxicity (Microtox(R) and P450RGS assays), in addition to the concentrations of 27 individual hydrophobic compounds. The number of compounds detected, P450RGS assay values, and the concentrations of pyrogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were significantly related to percent urban land cover in all six metropolitan areas. Pentachloroanisole, the most frequently detected compound, was significantly related to urban land cover in all metropolitan areas except Dallas-Fort Worth. Petrogenic PAHs and dibenzofurans were positively related to percent urban land cover in Atlanta, Raleigh-Durham, Denver, and Milwaukee-Green Bay. Results for other endpoints were much more variable. The number of endpoints significantly related to urban land cover ranged from 6 in Portland to 21 Raleigh-Durham. Based on differences in the number and suite of endpoints related to urban intensity, these results provide evidence of differences in factors governing source strength, transport, and/or fate of hydrophobic compounds in the six metropolitan areas studied. The most consistent and significant results were that bioavailable, aryl hydrocarbon receptor agonists increase in streams as basins become urbanized. Potential toxicity mediated by this metabolic pathway is indicated as an important factor in the response of aquatic biota to urbanization.     

Measurement of Volatile Organics at Part per Billion Concentrations Using a Cold Trap Inlet and High Speed Gas Chromatography

Direct inlet gas chromatography (GC) is becoming one of the most frequently used techniques for measurement of volatile organics in air. Although GC is an effective tool, its usefulness as a field method can be limited by retention times of several minutes or more, and by the limits of detection. In order to address these issues, a high speed GC system featuring a capillary cold trap inlet and variable speed electrometeramplifier was developed and tested.

The gas cooled inlet was used to collect and focus organic vapors from injection volumes of up to 1 ml. Resistance heating of the metal cold trap produced a narrow injection band that allowed simple separations to be completed in 5 to 20 seconds. Use of a variable speed electrometer-amplifier allowed the response time and noise suppression characteristics to be adjusted to the needs of the specific analysis.

Simple mixtures of organics including aromatics, alkanes and chlorinated hydrocarbons were separated in 20 seconds or less. The limits of detection for 13 test compounds ranged from less than 1 part per billion by volume (ppbv) to about 50 ppbv. Data presented here indicate that high speed GC using a cold trap inlet may be a feasible approach for near real-time measurement of volatile organics in ambient air.     

Modeling kelp forest distribution and biomass along temperate rocky coastlines

We address the global deficit of data describing kelp forest distribution, relative covers and biomass by testing the ability of species distribution models to predict these attributes at locations where data are currently limited. We integrated biological ground truth data with high-resolution environmental datasets to develop generalized additive models that accurately predict the structure of Laminaria forests within the Bay of Morlaix (48°42′42″N, 3°55′40″W). Forest distribution and proportional covers were predicted using water depth, light availability, wave exposure and sediment dynamics. The biomass of individual kelp species was modeled by supplementing these same variables with measures of seafloor slope and benthic position. Biomass predictions for Laminaria digitata and Laminaria hyperborea contrast the physiological tolerances of these species to light and wave exposure gradients. As a direct management output, we produced high-resolution maps (25 m² grids) that closely match independent field data and provide vital information for marine spatial planning.