TEMPORAL CHANGES IN THE YADKIN RIVER FLOW VERSUS SUSPENDED SEDIMENT CONCENTRATION RELATIONSHIP1

ABSTRACT: Dynamic linear models (DLM) and seasonal trend decomposition (STL) using local regression, or LOESS, were used to analyze the 50‐year time series of suspended sediment concentrations for the Yadkin River, measured at the U.S. Geological Survey station at Yadkin College, North Carolina. A DLM with constant trend, seasonality, and a log₁₀ streamflow regressor provided the best model to predict monthly mean log₁₀ suspended sediment concentrations, based on the forecast log likelihood. Using DLM, there was evidence (odds approximately 69:1) that the log₁₀ streamflow versus log₁₀ suspended sediment concentration relationship has changed, with an approximate 20 percent increase in the log₁₀ streamflow coefficient over the period 1981 to 1996. However, sediment concentrations in the Yadkin River have decreased during the decade of the 1990s, which has been accompanied by a concomitant increase in streamflow variability. Although STL has been shown to be a versatile trend analysis technique, DLM is shown to be more suitable for discovery and inference of structural changes (trends) in the model coefficient describing the relationship between flow and sediment concentration.     

MODELING THE IMPACTS OF WATER LEVEL CHANGES ON A GREAT LAKES COMMUNITY1

ABSTRACT: Recent research that couples climate change scenarios based on general circulation models (GCM) with Great Lakes hydrologic models has indicated that average water levels are projected to decline in the future. This paper outlines a methodology to assess the potential impact of declining water levels on Great Lakes waterfront communities, using the Lake Huron shoreline at Goderich, Ontario, as an example. The methodology utilizes a geographic information system (GIS) to combine topographic and bathymetric datasets. A digital elevation surface is used to model projected shoreline change for 2050 using water level scenarios. An arbitrary scenario, based on a 1 m decline from February 2001 lake levels, is also modeled. By creating a series of shoreline scenarios, a range of impact and cost scenarios are generated for the Goderich Harbor and adjacent marinas. Additional harbor and marina dredging could cost as much as CDN $7.6 million. Lake freighters may experience a 30 percent loss in vessel capacity. The methodology is used to provide initial estimates of the potential impacts of climate change that can be readily updated as more robust climate change scenarios become available and is adaptable for use in other Great Lakes coastal communities.     

CHARACTERIZATION OF INORGANIC PARTICLES IN SELECTED RESERVOIRS AND TRIBUTARIES OF THE NEW YORK CITY WATER SUPPLY1

ABSTRACT: Individual particle analysis (IPA) by scanning electron microscopy interfaced with automated image and X‐ray analyses was used to characterize inorganic particles in five reservoirs and four tributaries located within the Catskill and Delaware systems of the New York City water supply. Individual particle analysis provides combined elemental and morphologic characterizations. Results are presented in terms of particle projected area per unit volume (PAV), consistent with optical impacts, and partitioned into seven generic particle types according to composition. Minerals of terrigenous origins, particularly clay minerals, dominated the inorganic particle populations of all the study systems except one downstream reservoir. Higher PAV levels were observed in the Catskill system. Particle dynamics represented by PAV were driven primarily by runoff, while the reservoirs were also greatly influenced by the timing of sediment resuspension promoted by drawdown of the surface and fall mixing. The benefit of the serial configuration of the reservoirs in decreasing inorganic particles with progression downstream towards the city is demonstrated. The patterns in PAV levels among the study systems generally tracked those of more common metrics of impacts of suspensoids, including mass concentrations of suspended solids, turbidity, and Secchi disc transparency.     

Who changes consumption following residential energy evaluations? local programs need all income groups to achieve kyoto targets

The government of Canada ratified the Kyoto Protocol on 17 December 2002, but over 100 Canadian municipalities had joined the International Council for Local Environmental Intitatives' (ICLEI) Cities for Climate Protection (CCP) campaign up to a decade earlier. A low-cost home energy rating system (HERS) evaluation and individualized energy plan was provided to 420 households in Kitchener, Ontario, from September 2000 to August 2001. To assess the impact of the energy efficiency program, natural gas consumption in the year prior to the evaluation was compared with that in the year following. Overall, a 5% reduction was achieved, but individual responses varied widely. Situational and psychological factors were evaluated for three groups of households: the conservers, the consumers and the steady middle group. Conservers (30% of households) had higher initial energy consumption levels and achieved two-thirds of the potential savings identified by the energy evaluation. Consumers (12% of households) had higher ownership rates of high-efficiency furnaces and water heaters and demonstrated the rebound effect of increased demand for energy services following the evaluation. Low-income groups were the most likely to behave as conservers (42%) while high-income groups were the least likely to be conservers (13%) and the most likely to be consumers. Local programs need to be inclusive of all income groups to increase participation and implementation rates by systematically reducing barriers (financial, knowledge, trust) or increasing incentives (financial, regulatory or social) if the desired goal (e.g. Kyoto target) is to be achieved.     

Non-native Species <Emphasis Type="Italic">DO</Emphasis> Threaten the Natural Environment!

Sagoff [Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Ethics 18 (2005), 215–236] argues, against growing empirical evidence, that major environmental impacts of non-native species are unproven. However, many such impacts, including extinctions of both island and continental species, have both been demonstrated and judged by the public to be harmful. Although more public attention has been focused on non-native animals than non-native plants, the latter more often cause ecosystem-wide impacts. Increased regulation of introduction of non-native species is, therefore, warranted, and, contra Sagoff’s assertions, invasion biologists have recently developed methods that greatly aid prediction of which introduced species will harm the environment and thus enable more efficient regulation. The fact that introduced species may increase local biodiversity in certain instances has not been shown to result in desired changes in ecosystem function. In other locales, they decrease biodiversity, as they do globally.     

Cattle feedlot soil moisture and manure content: I. Impacts on greenhouse gases, odor compounds, nitrogen losses, and dust

Beef cattle feedlots face serious environmental challenges associated with manure management, including greenhouse gas, odor, NH3, and dust emissions. Conditions affecting emissions are poorly characterized, but likely relate to the variability of feedlot surface moisture and manure contents, which affect microbial processes. Odor compounds, greenhouse gases, nitrogen losses, and dust potential were monitored at six moisture contents (0.11, 0.25, 0.43, 0.67, 1.00, and 1.50 g H2O g(-1) dry matter [DM]) in three artificial feedlot soil mixtures containing 50, 250, and 750 g manure kg(-1) total (manure + soil) DM over a two-week period. Moisture addition produced three microbial metabolisms: inactive, aerobic, and fermentative at low, moderate, and high moisture, respectively. Manure content acted to modulate the effect of moisture and enhanced some microbial processes. Greenhouse gas (CO2, N2O, and CH4) emissions were dynamic at moderate to high moisture. Malodorous volatile fatty acid (VFA) compounds did not accumulate in any treatments, but their persistence and volatility varied depending on pH and aerobic metabolism. Starch was the dominant substrate fueling both aerobic and fermentative metabolism. Nitrogen losses were observed in all metabolically active treatments; however, there was evidence for limited microbial nitrogen uptake. Finally, potential dust production was observed below defined moisture thresholds, which were related to manure content of the soil. Managing feedlot surface moisture within a narrow moisture range (0.2-0.4 g H2O g(-1) DM) and minimizing the accumulation of manure produced the optimum conditions that minimized the environmental impact from cattle feedlot production.     

Cattle feedlot soil moisture and manure content: II. Impact on Escherichia coli O157

The moisture and manure contents of soils at cattle feedlot surfaces vary spatiotemporally and likely are important factors in the persistence of Escherichia coli O157 in these soils. The impacts of water content (0.11-1.50 g H2O g(-1) dry feedlot surface material [FSM]) and manure level (5, 25, and 75% dry manure in dry FSM) on E. coli O157:H7 in feedlot soils were evaluated. Generally, E. coli O157:H7 numbers either persisted or increased at all but the lowest moisture levels examined. Manure content modulated the effect of water on E. coli growth; for example, at water content of 0.43 g H2O g(-1) dry FSM and 25% manure, E. coli O157:H7 increased by 2 log10 colony forming units (CFU) g(-1) dry FSM in 3 d, while at 0.43 g H2O g(-1) dry FSM and 75% manure, populations remained stable over 14 d. Escherichia coli and coliform populations responded similarly. In a second study, the impacts of cycling moisture levels and different drying rates on naturally occurring E. coli O157 in feedlot soils were examined. Low initial levels of E. coli O157 were reduced to below enumerable levels by 21 d, but indigenous E. coli populations persisted at >2.50 log10 CFU g(-1) dry FSM up to 133 d. We conclude that E. coli O157 can persist and may even grow in feedlot soils, over a wide range of water and manure contents. Further investigations are needed to determine if these variables can be manipulated to reduce this pathogen in cattle and the feedlot environment.     

DRY AND WET WEATHER FLOW NUTRIENT LOADS FROM A LOS ANGELES WATERSHED1

Effective watershed management requires an accurate assessment of the pollutant loads from the associated point and nonpoint sources. The importance of wet weather flow (WWF) pollutant loads is well known, but in semi‐arid regions where urbanization is significant the pollutant load in dry weather flow (DWF) may also be important. This research compares the relative contributions of potential contaminants discharged in DWF and WWF from the Ballona Creek Watershed in Los Angeles, California. Models to predict DWF and WWF loads of total suspended solids, biochemical oxygen demand, nitrate‐nitrogen, nitrite‐nitrogen, ammonia‐nitrogen, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, and total phosphorus from the Ballona Creek Watershed for six water years dating from 1991 to 1996 were developed. The contaminants studied were selected based on data availability and their potential importance in the degradation of Ballona Creek and Santa Monica Bay beneficial uses. Wet weather flow was found to contribute approximately 75 percent to 90 percent of the total annual flow volume discharged by the Ballona Creek Watershed. Pollutant loads are also predominantly due to WWF, but during the dry season, DWF is a more significant contributor. Wet weather flow accounts for 67 to 98 percent of the annual load of the constituents studied. During the dry season, however, the portion attributable to DWF increases to greater than 40 percent for all constituents except biochemical oxygen demand and total suspended solids. When individual catchments within the watershed are considered, the DWF pollutant load from the largest catchment is similar to the WWF pollutant load in two other major catchments. This research indicates WWF is the most significant source of nonpoint source pollution load on an annual basis, but management of the effects of the nonpoint source pollutant load should consider the seasonal importance of DWF.     

MODELING LIGHT ATTENUATION,SECCHI DISK,AND EFFECTS OF TRIPTON IN SENACA RIVER,NEW YORK,USA1

The development, testing, and application of a probabilistic model framework for the light attenuation coefficient for downwelling irradiance (K_d) and Secchi disc transparency (SD) that resolves the effects of several light attenuating constituents, including phytoplankton and nonliving particles (tripton), is documented. The model is consistent with optical theory, partitioning the magnitudes of the light attenuating processes of absorption and scattering according to the contributions of attenuating constituents as simple summations. The probabilistic framework accommodates variations in the character and concentrations of these constituents and ambient conditions during measurements, and recognizes a linear relationship between the magnitudes of absorption and scattering by tripton. The model is tested and applied for a 21 km reach of the Seneca River, New York, that features optical gradients caused by an intervening hypereutrophic lake and dam, and a severe infestation of the exotic zebra mussel. The model is applied to resolve the roles of phytoplankton and tripton in regulating measured longitudinal patterns of SD along the study reach of the river and increases in SD since the zebra mussel invasion, and to predict decreases in K_d since the invasion.     

HISTORICAL TRENDS IN SEDIMENTATION RATES AND SEDIMENT PROVENANCE,FAIRFIELD LAKE,WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA1

Sedimentation rates and sediment provenance were examined for lacustrine sediments deposited in Fairfield Lake, western North Carolina, during the past 111 years. Stratigraphic, radionuclide, and cartographic data indicate that sedimentation rates have increased several fold during the past three decades in response to localized development. The magnitude of increased sedimentation was surprising given limited development within the basin: 0.12 to 0.68 buildings/ha in 2000 in those parts directly delivering sediment to the dated cores. Thus, the analysis illustrates the potential sensitivity of watersheds in the southern Appalachians to changes in land cover. An approach that combined geochemical fingerprinting with sediment mixing models was subsequently evaluated to determine its ability to accurately estimate the contribution of sediment from (1) major bedrock formations that underlie the watershed and (2) potential sources associated with four land cover categories. Sediment sources in both analyses proved difficult to geochemically fingerprint to greater than 90 percent accuracy using data on acid‐soluble metals and selected isotopes of lead (Pb). The relative contributions of sediment from delineated sources, estimated by the mixing models, generally corresponded with known temporal and spatial patterns of land cover. However, the models were plagued by two significant problems — the chemical alteration of sediments as they were transported through upland streams to depositional sites within the lake and the loss of elemental mass. Thus, future investigations using the fingerprinting approach in this area of intense weathering, and presumably others, will need to modify the existing methods to more accurately elucidate changes in sediment provenance related to development.