Climate dynamics and extreme precipitation and flood events in Central Europe

Past changes and possible future variations in the nature of extreme precipitation and flood events in Central Europe and the Alpine region are examined from a physical standpoint. An overview is given of the following key contributory physical processes: (1) the variability of the large-scale atmospheric flow and the associated changes of the North-Atlantic storm track; (2) the feedback process between climate warming and the water cycle, and in particular the potential for more frequent heavy precipitation events; and (3) the catchment-scale hydrological processes associated with variations in major river flooding events and that are related to land-use changes, river training measures, and shifts in the proportion of rain to snowfall. In this context an account is provided of the possible future forecasting and warning methodologies based upon high-resolution weather prediction and runoff models. Also consideration is given to the detectability of past (future) changes in observed (modeled) extreme events. It is shown that their rarity and natural fluctuation largely impedes a detection of systematic variations. These effects restrict trend analysis of such events to return periods of below a few months. An illustration using daily precipitation from the Swiss Alps does yield evidence for pronounced trends of intense precipitation events (return period 30 days), while trends of stronger event classes are not detectable (but nevertheless can not be excluded). The small detection probability for extreme events limits possible mitigation of future damage costs through an abatement of climate change alone, and points to the desirability of developing improved early forecasting/warning systems as an additional no-regret strategy. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Bifocal/varifocal spectacles, lighting and missed-step accidents

Good lighting and the correct use of spectacles generally improve vision and presumably reduce the risk of accidents. However, bifocal and varifocal spectacles can increase the risk of misjudging distances when negotiating underfoot hazards. In some circumstances, the portion of the lens used for close work may inadvertently be used where accurate judgement of distance is necessary. This paper reports results from two studies of patient interviews using the Merseyside Accident Information Model; the first a study of accidents which occurred during paid employment (1504 cases) and the second of 1326 accidents mainly in domestic and leisure activities. Underfoot accidents were identified by the first unforeseen event perceived by the patient. The relationship between underfoot events and the type of spectacles worn by the patient at the time of accident was analysed. In both studies there was a significant association between accidents where the first event was ‘missed edge of’ (step) and wearing bifocal/varifocal spectacles. Corporal movements reported in both studies indicated that ‘stepping down’ when wearing bifocal/varifocal spectacles, increased the risk of ‘missed edge’ accidents. In the work environment corporal movements associated with manual handling of loads also increased the risk of ‘missed edge’ accidents when wearing bifocal/varifocal spectacles.     

XAFS studies of cobalt(II) binding by solid peat and soil-derived humic acids and plant-derived humic acid-like substances

This work has examined cobalt(II) binding by a variety of solid humic acids (HAs) isolated from peat, plant and soil sources at temperatures down to 60K. The results confirm that X-ray absorption near-edge spectroscopy (XANES) measurements cannot distinguish between aquo and carboxylato ligands in the inner coordination sphere of Co(II). However, between 1 and 2 inner-sphere carboxylato ligands can be detected in all the peat, plant and soil-derived HA samples by extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) measurements, indicating inner-sphere coordination of HA-bound Co(II). The precision of C(carboxylate) detection is limited by the extent and quality of the data and the contribution from inner-sphere O to the Fourier transformed peaks used to detect carbon. Putative chelate ring formation is consistent with a relatively negative entropy change in step A, the stronger Co(II) binding step by HA functional groups, and could relate to 'non-exchangeable' metal binding by HSs.     

Passive sampling: partition coefficients for a silicone rubber reference phase

Silicone rubber sheeting can be used as a passive sampling device for hydrophobic organic contaminants in the environment to determine the available concentrations in water and sediments. Reliable sampler-water partition coefficients are required to determine the sampling rates and the dissolved contaminant concentrations in water and in sediment pore water. Log partition coefficients (logK(sr,w)) for silicone rubber-water have been estimated for 32 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), 2 deuterated PAH analogues and 32 chlorobiphenyls (CBs) using the cosolvent method, with methanol as cosolvent. Strong linear relationships were found with literature values for the corresponding log octanol-water partition coefficients (logK(ow)) for both CBs and PAHs, confirming that partitioning into the silicone rubber is strongly determined by the hydrophobicity of the compounds, which suggests logK(ow) is a good predictor of logK(sr,w) and that absorption is the main mechanism for accumulation of analytes into the silicone rubber polymer.     

How Do River Nitrate Concentrations Respond to Changes in Land-use? A Modelling Case Study of Headwaters in the River Derwent Catchment,North Yorkshire,UK

A combined semi-distributed hydrological model (CASCADE/QUESTOR) is used to evaluate the steady-state that may be achieved after changes in land-use or management and to explore what additional factors need to be considered in representing catchment processes. Two rural headwater catchments of the River Derwent (North Yorkshire, UK) were studied where significant change in land-use occurred in the 1990s and the early 2000s. Much larger increases in mean nitrate concentration (55%) were observed in the catchment with significant groundwater influence (Pickering Beck) compared with the surface water-dominated catchment (13% increase). The increases in Pickering Beck were considerably greater than could be explained by the model in terms of land-use change. Consequently, the study serves to focus attention on the long-term increases in nitrate concentration reported in major UK aquifers and the ongoing and chronic impact this trend is likely to be having on surface water concentrations. For river environments, where groundwater is a source, such trends will mask the impact of measures proposed to reduce the risk of nitrate leaching from agricultural land. Model estimates of within-channel losses account for 15–40% of nitrate entering rivers.