Contextualising risk within enterprise risk management through the application of systems thinking

New and emerging risks create growing uncertainty and unpredictability within enterprise risk management. While ISO 31000:2009 is a progressive risk management framework, it is limited in its guidance on how to contextualise complex risks. The application of systems thinking to risk management provides the opportunity to better understand complexity by viewing risk and the consequence of change as part of overall system behaviour. System modelling tools enable organisations to better contextualise their risk landscape. These tools assist organisations to identify vulnerabilities between social and ecological variables in the system within they exist. Determining drivers of change leading to system vulnerabilities can assist in understanding threshold limits of the system, thus enabling the organisation to build system resilience and organisational sustainability.     

Fate and effects of metal-based nanoparticles in two marine invertebrates,the bivalve mollusc Scrobicularia plana and the annelid polychaete Hediste diversicolor

The objective of this paper is to synthesize results from seven published research papers employing different experimental approaches to evaluate the fate of metal-based nanoparticles (Ag NPs, Au NPs, CuO NPs, CdS NPs, ZnO NPs) in the marine environment and their effects on two marine endobenthic species, the bivalve Scrobicularia plana and the ragworm Hediste diversicolor. The experiments were carried out under laboratory (microcosms) conditions or under environmentally realistic conditions in outdoor mesocosms. Based on results from these seven papers, we addressed the following research questions: (1) How did the environment into which nanoparticles were released affect their physicochemical properties?, (2) How did the route of exposure (seawater, food, sediment) influence bioaccumulation and effects?, (3) Which biomarkers were the most responsive? and (4) Which tools were the most efficient to evaluate the fate and effects of NPs in the marine environment? The obtained results showed that metal‐based NPs in general were highly agglomerated/aggregated in seawater. DGT tools could be used to estimate the bioavailability of metals released from NPs under soluble form in the aquatic environment. Both metal forms (nanoparticulate, soluble) were generally bioaccumulated in both species. Among biochemical tools, GST and CAT were the most sensitive revealing the enhancement of anti-oxidant defenses in both species exposed to sub-lethal concentrations of metal-based NPs. Apoptosis and genotoxicity were frequently observed.     

Methane emissions from 20 landfills across the United States using vertical radial plume mapping

Landfill fugitive methane emissions were quantified as a function of climate type and cover type at 20 landfills using US. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Other Test Method (OTM)-10 vertical radial plume mapping (VRPM) with tunable diode lasers (TDLs). The VRPM data were initially collected as g CH4/sec emission rates and subsequently converted to g CH4/m2/ day rates using two recently published approaches. The first was based upon field tracer releases of methane or acetylene and multiple linear regression analysis (MLRM). The second was a virtual computer model that was based upon the Industrial Source Complex (ISC3) and Pasquill plume stability class models (PSCMs). Calculated emission results in g CH4/m2/day for each measured VRPM with the two approaches agreed well (r2 = 0.93). The VRPM data were obtained from the working face, temporary soil, intermediate soil, and final soil or synthetic covers. The data show that methane emissions to the atmosphere are a function of climate and cover type. Humid subtropical climates exhibited the highest emissions for all cover types at 207, 127, 102, and 32 g CH4/m2/day, for working face (no cover), temporary, intermediate, and final cover, respectively. Humid continental warm summers showed 67, 51, and 27 g CH4/m2/day for temporary, intermediate, and final covers. Humid continental cool summers were 135, 40, and 26 g CH4/m2/day for the working face, intermediate, and final covers. Mediterranean climates were examined for intermediate and final covers only and found to be 11 and 6 g CH4/m2/day, respectively, whereas semiarid climates showed 85, 11, 3.7, and 2.7 g CH4/m2/day for working face, temporary, intermediate, and final covers. A closed, synthetically capped landfill covered with soil and vegetation with a gas collection system in a humid continental warm summer climate gave mostly background methane readings and average emission rates of only 0.09 g CH4/m2/day flux when measurable.     

Framing Climate Change for Public Deliberation: What Role for Interpretive Social Sciences and Humanities?

Public deliberation is increasingly marshalled as a viable avenue for climate governance. Although climate change can be framed in multiple ways, it is widely assumed that the only relevant public meaning of climate change is that given by the natural sciences. Framing climate change as an inherently science-based public issue not only shields institutional power from scrutiny, but it can also foster an instrumental approach to public deliberation that can constrain imaginative engagement with present and future socio-environmental change. By fostering the normative value of pluralism as well as the substantive value of epistemic diversity, the interpretive social sciences and humanities can assist in opening up public deliberation on climate change such that alternative questions, neglected issues, marginalized perspectives and different possibilities can gain traction for policy purposes. Stakeholders of public deliberation are encouraged to reflect on the orchestration of the processes by which climate change is defined, solutions identified and political collectives convened.     

An Inventory of Particulate Emissions from Open Sources

Open sources are those stationary sources of air pollution too great in extent to be controlled through enclosure or ducting. Open sources of atmospheric particles include: wind erosion, tilling, and prescribed burning of agricultural cropland; surface mining and wind erosion of tailings piles; vehicular travel on both paved and unpaved roads; construction site activity; and forest fires. It is estimated that in 1976 the total open source emissions of particles in the U.S. amounted to over 580 × 10⁶ ton. These estimates indicate that emissions from the two largest open source classes, travel on unpaved roads and agricultural wind erosion, accounted for 86% of this total. The open source emissions in ten states (AZ, CA, KS, MN, MT, NM, ND, OH, SD, TX) contributed 6 2% of the national emissions for 1976.     

Design and Performance of a Reliable Personal Monitoring System for Respirable Participates

Personal exposure to respirable particulates and sulfates is being measured as a part of a long term prospective epidemiological study of the respiratory health effects of air pollution, the Harvard Six City Study.¹ The purpose of this monitoring program is to develop better estimators of actual personal exposure from comparison of the direct measurements of personal exposure with simultaneous measurements of the normally measured outdoor air, the air inside each participant’s home, and records of the daily activities of each participant. Results are reported in a paper by Dockery and Spengler.²     

A Review of the Role of Temperate Forests in the Global CO2 Balance

The role of temperate forests in the global carbon balance is difficult to determine because many uncertainties exist in the data, and many assumptions must be made in these determinations. Still, there is little doubt that increases in atmospheric CO₂ and global warming would have major effects on temperate forest ecosystems. Increases in atmospheric CO₂ may result in increases in photosynthesis, changes in water and nitrogen use efficiency, and changes in carbon allocation. Indirect effects of changes in global carbon balance on regional climate and on microenvironmental conditions, particularly temperature and moisture, may be more important than direct effects of increased CO₂ on vegetation. Increased incidence of forest perturbations might also be expected. The evidence suggests that conditions favorable to forest growth and development may exist in the northern latitudes, while southern latitude forests may undergo drought stress. Current harvest of temperate and world forests contributes substantial amounts of carbon to the atmosphere, possibly as much as 3 gigatons (Gt) per year. Return of this carbon to forest storage may require decades. Forest managers should be aware of the global as well as local impact their management decisions will have on the atmospheric carbon balance of the ecosystems they oversee.     

Temporal Variations of PM2.5, PM10, and Gaseous Precursors during the 1995 Integrated Monitoring Study in Central California

ABSTRACT

The spatial and temporal distributions of particle mass and its chemical constituents are essential for understanding the source-receptor relationships as well as the chemical, physical, and meteorological processes that result in elevated particulate concentrations in California’s San Joaquin Valley (SJV). Fine particulate matter ₍PM_2.5), coarse particulate matter (PM₁₀), and aerosol precursor gases were sampled on a 3-hr time base at two urban (Bakersfield and Fresno) and two non-urban (Kern Wildlife Refuge and Chowchilla) core sites in the SJV during the winter of 1995–1996.

Day-to-day variations of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ and their chemical constituents were influenced by the synoptic-scale meteorology and were coherent among the four core sites. Under non-rainy conditions, similar diurnal variations of PM_2.5 and coarse aerosol were found at the two urban sites, with concentrations peaking during the nighttime hours. Conversely, PM_2.5 and coarse aerosol peaked during the morning and afternoon hours at the two non-urban sites. Under rainy and foggy conditions, these diurnal patterns were absent or greatly suppressed.

In the urban areas, elevated concentrations of primary pollutants (e.g., organic and elemental carbons) during the late afternoon and nighttime hours reflected the impact from residential wood combustion and motor vehicle exhaust. During the daytime, these concentrations decreased as the mixed layer deepened. Increases of secondary nitrate and sulfate concentrations were found during the daylight hours as a result of photochemical reactions. At the non-urban sites, the same increases in secondary aerosol concentrations occurred during the daylight hours but with a discernable lag time. Concentrations of the primary pollutants also increased at the non-urban sites during the daytime. These observations are attributed to mixing aloft of primary aerosols and secondary precursor gases in urban areas followed by rapid transport aloft to non-urban areas coupled with photochemical conversion.