Will Observation Error and Biases Ruin the Use of Simple Extinction Models?

Abstract: Estimating the risk of extinction for populations of endangered species is an important component of conservation biology. These estimates must be made from data that contain both environmental noise in the year-to-year transitions in population size (so-called "process error"), random errors in sampling, and possible biases in sampling ( both forms of observation errors). To determine how much faith to place in estimated extinction rates, it is important to know how sensitive they are to observation error. We used three simple, commonly employed models of population dynamics to generate simulated population time series. We then combined random observation error or systematic biases with those data, fit models to the time series data, and observed how close the extinction dynamics of the fitted models compared with the dynamics of the underlying models. We found that systematic biases in sampling rarely affected estimates of extinction risk. We also found that even moderate levels of random observation error do not significantly affect extinction estimates except over a small range of process errors, corresponding to the region where extinction risk is most uncertain. With more substantial sampling error, estimates of extinction risk degraded rapidly. Field census techniques for a variety of taxa often involve observation errors within ±32% of actual population sizes. For typical time series used in conservation, therefore, we often may not need to be overly concerned about observation errors as an extra source of imperfection in our estimated extinction rates.     

The predictability of evolution: glimpses into a post-Darwinian world

The very success of the Darwinian explanation, in not only demonstrating evolution from multiple lines of evidence but also in providing some plausible explanations, paradoxically seems to have served to have stifled explorations into other areas of investigation. The fact of evolution is now almost universally yoked to the assumption that its outcomes are random, trends are little more than drunkard’s walks, and most evolutionary products are masterpieces of improvisation and far from perfect. But is this correct? Let us consider some alternatives. Is there evidence that evolution could in anyway be predictable? Can we identify alternative forms of biological organizations and if so how viable are they? Why are some molecules so extraordinarily versatile, while others can be spoken of as “molecules of choice”? How fortuitous are the major transitions in the history of life? What implications might this have for the Tree of Life? To what extent is evolutionary diversification constrained or facilitated by prior states? Are evolutionary outcomes merely sufficient or alternatively are they highly efficient, even superb? Here I argue that in sharp contradistinction to an orthodox Darwinian view, not only is evolution much more predictable than generally assumed but also investigation of its organizational substrates, including those of sensory systems, which indicates that it is possible to identify a predictability to the process and outcomes of evolution. If correct, the implications may be of some significance, not least in separating the unexceptional Darwinian mechanisms from underlying organizational principles, which may indicate evolutionary inevitabilities.     

Large-scale environmental degradation results in inequitable impacts to already impoverished communities: A case study from the floating villages of Cambodia

Cambodian subsistence communities within the Tonle Sap Great Lake area rely on resource extraction from the lake to meet livelihood needs. These fishing communities—many of which consist of dwellings floating on the lake—face potentially profound livelihood challenges because of climate change and changing hydrology due to dam construction for hydroelectricity within the Mekong Basin. We conducted interviews across five village communities, with local subsistence fisher people in the Tonle Sap in 2015, and used thematic analysis methods to reveal a fishery system that is undergoing rapid ecological decline, with local fishing communities increasingly experiencing reductions in available fish stocks. As a result, over 100 000 people living in these communities are experiencing a direct loss of well-being and livelihood. We discuss these losses and consider their implications for the future viability of Cambodian floating village communities.     

High and low value fish chains in the Mekong Delta: challenges for livelihoods and governance

This paper investigates the structure, function and wealth distribution within the Pangasius hypophthalmus and Henicorhynchus spp./Labiobarbus spp. value chains in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam. The analysis is driven by key questions relating to the form and function of value chains, their contribution to the livelihoods of farmers and fishers, the effectiveness of government policy and the potential for value chain governance mechanisms, such as contracts and certification, to steer towards sustainable production. The results indicate that actors in the high value Pangasius hypopthalmus export chain have a higher potential income, but face considerably higher economic vulnerability from global markets. Alternatively, Henichorhychus/Labiobarbus spp. fishers are severely constrained in their ability to negotiate higher prices for their fish but appear to be less vulnerable to economic and environmental change. The paper concludes that for value chain governance to improve the livelihoods of fishers and farmers in both high and low value chains, new arrangements are needed that better accommodate customary institutions and informal market relations.     

Evaluation of leaching and extraction procedures for soil and waste

Laboratory leaching tests may be used for source term determination as a basis for risk assessment for soil-groundwater pathways on contaminated sites. In order to evaluate different leaching procedures, batch extraction tests and percolation tests were performed using three reference materials produced from contaminated soil, demolition waste and municipal solid waste incinerator bottom ash. Emphasis was placed on the investigation of the leachability of the heavy metals copper and chromium, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and the anions chloride and sulfate. Significant discrepancies between column experiments and batch/extraction tests were found for the release of PAHs and to a lesser extent for the heavy metals Cu and Cr. Additionally interlaboratory comparisons were conducted based on different leaching tests with the reference materials and evaluated using the criteria of comparability and reproducibility. The best reproducibility was achieved for all investigated substances in column tests. The reproducibility of batch tests was acceptable except for PAHs. The results from the experimental work will help establish standardized and feasible laboratory procedures as fundamental for substance specific risk assessment of contaminated sites.     

Plasma concentration of organochlorine compounds is associated with age and not obesity

It has been suggested that obese individuals, because of an increased dilution space (body fat) for lipophilic organochlorines compounds, may have greater levels of toxic pollutants than lean sedentary individuals. It is important to further examine this possibility because of the potential contribution of organochlorine pesticides in the development of Parkinson's disease and other neurological diseases. The aim of this study was to further investigate the relationship between the magnitude of obesity and the plasma concentration of organochlorines for a wide range of BMI (with participants at steady state body weight). Fifty-three individuals were selected on the basis of their body mass index (BMI): lean controls (n=16; mean BMI 22.8+/-2.2 kg/m(2); mean age 38.8+/-9.4 years), obese individuals (n=19; mean BMI 33.4+/-3.0 kg/m(2); mean age 38.6+/-7.6 years) and morbidly obese individuals (n=18; mean BMI 49.3+/-6.5 kg/m(2); mean age 44.3+/-9.2 years). Blood samples were analyzed for organochlorine compounds. The relationship between the total plasma organochlorine concentration and BMI was tested using a multiple regression analysis. Age was included in the model. There was no relationship between the total plasma organochlorine concentration and BMI. Organochlorine concentrations, however, were correlated with age (BMI-adjusted R(2)=0.46; p<0.001). At steady state body weight, toxic pollutant concentrations are not associated to obesity but strongly correlate with age.     

Environmental impact of the substitution of imported soybean meal with locally-produced rapeseed meal in dairy cow feed

Growing public concerns about the traceability, safety and environmental-friendliness of food products provide an incentive for shorter supply chains in agricultural production. Here, we assessed the environmental impacts of the substitution of imported soybean meal with locally-produced rapeseed meal in French dairy production systems, using a life-cycle approach. Two feeding rations based on either French-produced rapeseed meal or Brazilian-produced soy meal as concentrates, were compared for nine impact categories, including global warming, ecotoxicity and eutrophication. Crop production was the main contributor to most impacts, while overseas transport of soy meal only had a marginal effect. The “Soybean” ration appeared more environmentally-efficient than the “Rapeseed” ration because it involved less intensive management practices, in particular regarding synthetic fertilizers consumption. However, land use changes brought about by soybean cultivation should also be examined.