Fourth-corner correlation is a score test statistic in a log-linear trait–environment model that is useful in permutation testing

Ecologists wish to understand the role of traits of species in determining where each species occurs in the environment. For this, they wish to detect associations between species traits and environmental variables from three data tables, species count data from sites with associated environmental data and species trait data from data bases. These three tables leave a missing part, the fourth-corner. The fourth-corner correlations between quantitative traits and environmental variables, heuristically proposed 20 years ago, fill this corner. Generalized linear (mixed) models have been proposed more recently as a model-based alternative. This paper shows that the squared fourth-corner correlation times the total count is precisely the score test statistic for testing the linear-by-linear interaction in a Poisson log-linear model that also contains species and sites as main effects. For multiple traits and environmental variables, the score test statistic is proportional to the total inertia of a doubly constrained correspondence analysis. When the count data are over-dispersed compared to the Poisson or when there are other deviations from the model such as unobserved traits or environmental variables that interact with the observed ones, the score test statistic does not have the usual chi-square distribution. For these types of deviations, row- and column-based permutation methods (and their sequential combination) are proposed to control the type I error without undue loss of power (unless no deviation is present), as illustrated in a small simulation study. The issues for valid statistical testing are illustrated using the well-known Dutch Dune Meadow data set.     

Social-ecological system resonance: a theoretical framework for brokering sustainable solutions

Sustainability science is a solution-oriented discipline. Yet, there are few theory-rich discussions about how this orientation structures the efforts of sustainability science. We argue that Niklas Luhmann’s social system theory, which explains how societies communicate problems, conceptualize solutions, and identify pathways towards implementation of solutions, is valuable in explaining the general structure of sustainability science. From Luhmann, we focus on two key concepts. First, his notion of resonance offers us a way to account for how sustainability science has attended and responded to environmental risks. As a product of resonance, we reveal solution-oriented research as the strategic coordination of capacities, resources, and information. Second, Luhmann’s interests in self-organizing processes explain how sustainability science can simultaneously advance multiple innovations. The value logic that supports this multiplicity of self-organizing activities as a recognition that human and natural systems are complex coupled and mutually influencing. To give form to this theoretical framework, we offer case evidence of renewable energy policy formation in Texas. Although the state’s wealth is rooted in a fossil-fuel heritage, Texas generates more electricity from wind than any US state. It is politically antagonistic towards climate-change policy, yet the state’s reception of wind energy technology illustrates how social and environmental systems can be strategically aligned to generate solutions that address diverse needs simultaneously. This case demonstrates that isolating climate change—as politicians do as a separate and discrete problem—is incapable of achieving sustainable solutions, and resonance offers researchers a framework for conceptualizing, designing, and communicating meaningfully integrated actions.     

Variability in the phytoplankton community of Kavaratti reef ecosystem (northern Indian Ocean) during peak and waning periods of El Niño 2016

El Niño, an interannual climate event characterized by elevated oceanic temperature, is a prime threat for coral reef ecosystems worldwide, owing to their thermal threshold sensitivity. Phytoplankton plays a crucial role in the sustenance of reef trophodynamics. The cell size of the phytoplankton forms the “master morphological trait” with implications for growth, resource acquisition, and adaptability to nutrients. In the context of a strong El Niño prediction for 2015–2016, the present study was undertaken to evaluate the variations in the size-structured phytoplankton of Kavaratti reef waters, a major coral atoll along the southeast coast of India. The present study witnessed a remarkable change in the physicochemical environment of the reef water and massive coral bleaching with the progression of El Niño 2015–2016 from its peak to waning phase. The fluctuations observed in sea surface temperature, pH, and nutrient concentration of the reef water with the El Niño progression resulted in a remarkable shift in phytoplankton size structure, abundance, and community composition of the reef waters. Though low nutrient concentration of the waning phase resulted in lower phytoplankton biomass and abundance, the diazotroph Trichodesmium erythraeum predominated the reef waters, owing to its capability of the atmospheric nitrogen fixation and dissolved organic phosphate utilization.     

The evolution of pollution profile and health risk assessment for three groups SVOCs pollutants along with Beijiang River,China

Three important groups of semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), organic chlorinated pesticides (OCPs) and phthalate esters (PAEs), were produced by various human activities and entered the water body. In this study, the pollution profiles of three species including 16 PAHs, 20 OCPs and 15 PAEs in water along the Beijiang River, China were investigated. The concentrations of Σ₁₆PAHs in the dissolved and particulate phases were obtained as 69–1.5 × 10² ng L^?1 and 2.3 × 10³–8.6 × 10⁴ ng g^?1, respectively. The levels of Σ₂₀OCPs were 23–66 ng L^?1 (dissolved phase) and 19–1.7 × 10³ ng g^?1 (particulate phase). Nevertheless, higher levels of PAEs were found both in the dissolved and particulate phases due to abuse use of plastic products. Furthermore, non-cancer and cancer risks caused by these SVOCs through the ingestion absorption and dermal absorption were also assessed. There was no non-cancer risk existed through two kinds of exposure of them at current levels, whereas certain cancer risk existed through dermal absorption of PAHs in the particulate phase in some sampling sites. The results will show scientific insights into the evaluation of the status of combined pollution in river basins, and the determination of strategies for incident control and pollutant remediation.     

Research priorities for managing the impacts and dependencies of business upon food,energy, water and the environment

Delivering access to sufficient food, energy and water resources to ensure human wellbeing is a major concern for governments worldwide. However, it is crucial to account for the ‘nexus’ of interactions between these natural resources and the consequent implications for human wellbeing. The private sector has a critical role in driving positive change towards more sustainable nexus management and could reap considerable benefits from collaboration with researchers to devise solutions to some of the foremost sustainability challenges of today. Yet opportunities are missed because the private sector is rarely involved in the formulation of deliverable research priorities. We convened senior research scientists and influential business leaders to collaboratively identify the top forty questions that, if answered, would best help companies understand and manage their food-energy-water-environment nexus dependencies and impacts. Codification of the top order nexus themes highlighted research priorities around development of pragmatic yet credible tools that allow businesses to incorporate nexus interactions into their decision-making; demonstration of the business case for more sustainable nexus management; identification of the most effective levers for behaviour change; and understanding incentives or circumstances that allow individuals and businesses to take a leadership stance. Greater investment in the complex but productive relations between the private sector and research community will create deeper and more meaningful collaboration and cooperation.     

Challenges in assessing biological recovery from acidification in Swedish lakes

Since the 1980s, Swedish lakes have in general become less acidified. Assessment of biological recovery is, however, hampered by poor pre-acidification data, confounding effects of climate change, and few lakes with annual sampling of fish and other organisms. Only three critically acidified, but non-limed, lakes had two decades of fish monitoring. The lakes had not yet recovered to pre-industrial chemical targets. Fish had low species richness compared to other organism groups. Roach (Rutilus rutilus) and/or European perch (Perca fluviatilis) were the dominant fish species, and the acid-sensitive roach had been lost from one of the lakes. Calcium decreased, possibly approaching pre-acidification concentrations, but exceeded minimum levels needed to sustain some Daphnia species. High or increasing levels of total organic carbon, likely due to reduced acidification and climate change, might influence the biological communities in unexpected ways, for example, facilitating more frequent occurrence of the invasive algae Gonyostomum semen.     

Present and future climate conditions for winegrowing in Spain

This study deals with the question of how winegrowing in Spain may be altered by anthropogenic climate change. The present state and expected future development of three bioclimatic indices relevant for winegrowing were assessed by observation, and four regional climate models from the EU-ENSEMBLES project were investigated. When comparing the 2061–2090 scenario period to the 1961–1990 reference period, the models unanimously indicate a significant increase in the mean of the two considered thermal indices over the entire study region. However, for the index based on temperature and precipitation, the models are heavily biased when verified against observations and generally disagree on the size of the projected future change. For this index, unanimous model agreement was only found for northwestern Spain where all models indicated a significant decrease in the mean. From these results, regional climate change is expected to negatively affect the quality of wine in the growing regions of central and southern Spain, and the Ebro valley, whereas positive effects should be expected in the northwest. No significant changes in the risk of mildew infestation are to be expected except for the northwest, where this risk is projected to decrease.     

Policy evaluation of vehicle exhaust standards in Japan from 1995 to 2005 based on two human health risk indices for air pollution and global warming

Measures for vehicle exhaust emissions aimed at reducing either air pollution or global warming could have counterproductive effects on one another. Increasing diesel passenger vehicles, which generally have lower CO₂ emissions than gasoline counterparts, leads to increasing particulate matter (PM) emissions, while gasoline has lower PM emissions than diesel. It is said that stringent limits on PM emission factors discourages improved CO₂ emission factors. Without including both effects in a risk evaluation, one cannot evaluate whether the total risk is reduced or not. Hence, we evaluated representative exhaust emission measures based on risk evaluation for both air pollution and global warming. Considering consumer choice between diesel and gasoline passenger vehicles and emissions standards adopted in Japan from 1995 to 2005, we built five cases for vehicle policy evaluation. For each case, we estimated disability-adjusted life years (DALY) as an index of human health risk caused by lung cancer linked to inhalation exposure of elemental carbon in PM as well as due to global warming linked to CO₂. The results of our risk evaluation reveal that the case adopting the 2005 new long-term Japanese emission standard reduces the human health risk caused by lung cancer due to air pollution by 0.6 × 10³ DALY, but would increase the risk due to global warming by 31.9 × 10³ DALY compared with the case of adopting EURO 4, for the same conditions of passenger vehicle choice from 1995. These results suggest that the characteristics of Japanese emissions standards are mainly designed to reduce air pollution.     

A review of vulnerability indicators for deltaic social–ecological systems

The sustainability of deltas worldwide is under threat due to the consequences of global environmental change (including climate change) and human interventions in deltaic landscapes. Understanding these systems is becoming increasingly important to assess threats to and opportunities for long-term sustainable development. Here, we propose a simplified, yet inclusive social–ecological system (SES)-centered risk and vulnerability framework and a list of indicators proven to be useful in past delta assessments. In total, 236 indicators were identified through a structured review of peer-reviewed literature performed for three globally relevant deltas—the Mekong, the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna and the Amazon. These are meant to serve as a preliminary “library” of potential indicators to be used for future vulnerability assessments. Based on the reviewed studies, we identified disparities in the availability of indicators to populate some of the vulnerability domains of the proposed framework, as comprehensive social–ecological assessments were seldom implemented in the past. Even in assessments explicitly aiming to capture both the social and the ecological system, there were many more indicators for social susceptibility and coping/adaptive capacities as compared to those relevant for characterizing ecosystem susceptibility or robustness. Moreover, there is a lack of multi-hazard approaches accounting for the specific vulnerability profile of sub-delta areas. We advocate for more comprehensive, truly social–ecological assessments which respond to multi-hazard settings and recognize within-delta differences in vulnerability and risk. Such assessments could make use of the proposed framework and list of indicators as a starting point and amend it with new indicators that would allow capturing the complexity as well as the multi-hazard exposure in a typical delta SES.     

Opportunities and challenges for mangrove carbon sequestration in the Mekong River Delta in Vietnam

Increasing value is attributed to mangroves due to their considerable capacity to sequester carbon, known as ‘blue carbon’. Assessments of opportunities and challenges associated with estimating the significance of carbon sequestered by mangroves need to consider a range of disciplinary perspectives, including the bio-physical science mangroves, social and economic issues of land use, local and international law, and the role of public and private finance. We undertook an interdisciplinary review based on available literature and fieldwork focused on parts of the Mekong River Delta (MRD). Preliminary estimates indicate mangrove biomass may be 70–150 t ha^?1, but considerably larger storage of carbon occurs in sediments beneath mangroves. These natural stores of carbon are compromised when mangroves are removed to accommodate anthropogenic activities. Mangroves are an important resource in the MRD that supplies multiple goods and services, and conservation or re-establishment of mangroves provides many benefits. International law and within-country environmental frameworks offer increasing scope to recognize the role that mangrove forests play through carbon sequestration, in order that these might lead to funding opportunities, both in public and private sectors. Such schemes need to have positive rather than negative impacts on the livelihoods of the many people living within and adjacent to these wetlands. Nevertheless, many challenges remain and it will require further targeted and coordinated scientific research, development of economic and social incentives to protect and restore mangroves, supportive law and policy mechanisms at global and national levels, and establishment of long-term financing for such endeavours.