Modeling range dynamics in heterogeneous landscapes: invasion of the hemlock woolly adelgid in eastern North America

Range expansion by native and exotic species will continue to be a major component of global change. Anticipating the potential effects of changes in species distributions requires models capable of forecasting population spread across realistic, heterogeneous landscapes and subject to spatiotemporal variability in habitat suitability. Several decades of theory and model development, as well as increased computing power and availability of fine-resolution GIS data, now make such models possible. Still unanswered, however, is the question of how well this new generation of dynamic models will anticipate range expansion. Here we develop a spatially explicit stochastic model that combines dynamic dispersal and population processes with fine-resolution maps characterizing spatiotemporal heterogeneity in climate and habitat to model range expansion of the hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA; Adelges tsugae). We parameterize this model using multiyear data sets describing population and dispersal dynamics of HWA and apply it to eastern North America over a 57-year period (1951-2008). To evaluate the model, the observed pattern of spread of HWA during this same period was compared to model predictions. Our model predicts considerable heterogeneity in the risk of HWA invasion across space and through time, and it suggests that spatiotemporal variation in winter temperature, rather than hemlock abundance, exerts a primary control on the spread of HWA. Although the simulations generally matched the observed current extent of the invasion of HWA and patterns of anisotropic spread, it did not correctly predict when HWA was observed to arrive in different geographic regions. We attribute differences between the modeled and observed dynamics to an inability to capture the timing and direction of long-distance dispersal events that substantially affected the ensuing pattern of spread.     

Priority areas for conservation of Old World vultures

The prosperity and well-being of human societies relies on healthy ecosystems and the services they provide. However, the biodiversity crisis is undermining ecosystems services and functions. Vultures are among the most imperiled taxonomic groups on Earth, yet they have a fundamental ecosystem function. These obligate scavengers rapidly consume large amounts of carrion and human waste, a service that may aid in both disease prevention and control of mammalian scavengers, including feral dogs, which in turn threaten humans. We combined information about the distribution of all 15 vulture species found in Europe, Asia, and Africa with their threats and used detailed expert knowledge on threat intensity to prioritize critical areas for conserving vultures in Africa and Eurasia. Threats we identified included poisoning, mortality due to collision with wind energy infrastructures, and other anthropogenic activities related to human land use and influence. Areas important for vulture conservation were concentrated in southern and eastern Africa, South Asia, and the Iberian Peninsula, and over 80% of these areas were unprotected. Some vulture species required larger areas for protection than others. Finally, countries that had the largest share of all identified important priority areas for vulture conservation were those with the largest expenditures related to rabies burden (e.g., India, China, and Myanmar). Vulture populations have declined markedly in most of these countries. Restoring healthy vulture populations through targeted actions in the priority areas we identified may help restore the ecosystem services vultures provide, including sanitation and potentially prevention of diseases, such as rabies, a heavy burden afflicting fragile societies. Our findings may guide stakeholders to prioritize actions where they are needed most in order to achieve international goals for biodiversity conservation and sustainable development.     

Ecological boundary detection using Bayesian areal wombling

The study of ecological boundaries and their dynamics is of fundamental importance to much of ecology, biogeography, and evolution. Over the past two decades, boundary analysis (of which wombling is a subfield) has received considerable research attention, resulting in multiple approaches for the quantification of ecological boundaries. Nonetheless, few methods have been developed that can simultaneously (1) analyze spatially homogenized data sets (i.e., areal data in the form of polygons rather than point-reference data); (2) account for spatial structure in these data and uncertainty associated with them; and (3) objectively assign probabilities to boundaries once detected. Here we describe the application of a Bayesian hierarchical framework for boundary detection developed in public health, which addresses these issues but which has seen limited application in ecology. As examples, we analyze simulated spread data and the historic pattern of spread of an invasive species, the hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae), using county-level summaries of the year of first reported infestation and several covariates potentially important to influencing the observed spread dynamics. Bayesian areal wombling is a promising approach for analyzing ecological boundaries and dynamics related to changes in the distributions of native and invasive species.     

Environmental risk and liability management and its influence on profitability

Managing environmental risk and liability for corporations and consultants requires a prudent combination of insurance techniques, company risk control plans, pollution prevention, and the proper allocation of retention funds. This article presents a review of current risk management techniques used to shield profits from limited and catastrophic loss scenarios. We recommend that corporations and consulting firms integrate insurance and risk management planning to mitigate environmental liabilities, navigate business risks, and safeguard corporate performance..© 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Assessing links between crop diversity and food self-sufficiency in three agroecological regions of Nepal

Increasing on-farm crop diversity is one agroecological approach to enhancing food self-sufficiency that helps small-scale farmers keep their food systems stable by reducing risks associated with stressors, such as a pest outbreaks or droughts. But understanding how crop diversity and food self-sufficiency are related is unknown. To explore this complex relation, this study presents household data (n = 1664) from Nepal to test the hypothesis that families with high crop diversity enjoy greater household food self-sufficiency. Data are presented for three districts that are representative of three distinct agroecological regions of the country: (1) Sarlahi, which is affluent, market-oriented, and on the plains; (2) Makwanpur District in the hills, which has well-developed integrated farm production; and (3) the mountainous District of Humla, which has the poorest quality environment and is the most remote. Results show that in the Humla District, families with greater crop diversity were more self-sufficient. In contrast, farmers in Makwanpur, who have already established a high degree of crop diversity based on vegetable production, do not benefit from additional crop diversity in terms of their ability to provide for themselves. Finally, data from Sarlahi show that families’ food self-sufficiency benefits from crop diversification. We conclude that boosting crop diversity is a viable strategy for maintaining stability in food systems, but this varies depending on the accessibility of a farm and, in particular, access to markets.     

Autotoxic effects of essential oils on photosynthesis in parsley, parsnip, and rough lemon

Summary. Many plant species contain essential oils with allelochemical properties, yet the extent to which these same chemicals can be autotoxic is unclear. In this study, we tested the toxicity of several essential oil components to three species that produce them—Pastinaca sativa and Petroselinum crispum (Apiaceae), and Citrus jambhiri (Rutaceae). The effects of exogenous application of small amounts of essential oil components to the surface of foliage, followed by a pinprick to allow entry into the leaf, were monitored by chlorophyll fluorescence imaging. Rapid and spatially extensive declines in photosynthetic capacity were detected within 200 s. The most toxic constituents were monoterpenes. Two sesquiterpenes, caryophyllene and farnesene, and the phenylpropanoid myristicin, by comparison, were not toxic. Autotoxicity of endogenous essential oil was investigated by slicing through containment structures (glands or tubes); significant toxicity, manifested by reduced photosynthetic activity, was observed in all three species but was most pronounced in P. sativa and P. crispum, both of which possess oil tubes.     

MODIS derived fire characteristics and aerosol optical depth variations during the agricultural residue burning season, north India

Agricultural residue burning is one of the major causes of greenhouse gas emissions and aerosols in the Indo-Ganges region. In this study, we characterize the fire intensity, seasonality, variability, fire radiative energy (FRE) and aerosol optical depth (AOD) variations during the agricultural residue burning season using MODIS data. Fire counts exhibited significant bi-modal activity, with peak occurrences during April-May and October-November corresponding to wheat and rice residue burning episodes. The FRE variations coincided with the amount of residues burnt. The mean AOD (2003-2008) was 0.60 with 0.87 (+1σ) and 0.32 (−1σ). The increased AOD during the winter coincided well with the fire counts during rice residue burning season. In contrast, the AOD-fire signal was weak during the summer wheat residue burning and attributed to dust and fossil fuel combustion. Our results highlight the need for ‘full accounting of GHG’s and aerosols’, for addressing the air quality in the study area.     

Combined effects of elevated CO2 and natural climatic variation on leaf spot diseases of redbud and sweetgum trees

Atmospheric CO₂ concentrations are predicted to double within the next century and alter climate regimes, yet the extent that these changes will affect plant diseases remains unclear. In this study conducted over five years, we assessed how elevated CO₂ and interannual climatic variability affect Cercospora leaf spot diseases of two deciduous trees. Climatic data varied considerably between the five years and altered disease expression. Disease incidence and severity for both species were greater in years with above average rainfall. In years with above average temperatures, disease incidence for Liquidambar styraciflua was decreased significantly. When significant changes did occur, disease incidence and severity always increased under elevated CO₂. Chlorophyll fluorescence imaging of leaves revealed that any visible increase in disease severity induced by elevated CO₂ was mitigated by higher photosynthetic efficiency in the remaining undamaged leaf tissue and in a halo surrounding lesions.     

Comparison of the Photodegradation of Imazethapyr in Aqueous Solution,on Epicuticular Waxes,and on Intact Corn (Zea Mays) and Soybean (Glycine Max) Leaves

A direct, controlled comparison of the photodegradation of imazethapyr has been made between imazethapyr in aqueous solutions, imazethapyr on the surface of epicuticular waxes of corn and soybean plants, and imazethapyr on the surface of intact corn and soybean plant leaves. In some experiments, the imazethapyr solutions were allowed to evaporate partially or fully after application to better model environmental conditions. The photodegradation of imazethapyr was fastest in aqueous solutions (k?=?0.16?±?0.02?h^?1) and slowest on the surface of corn and soybean plants (k_corn?=?0.00048?±?0.001?h^?1 and k_soy?=?0.00054?±?0.003?h^?1). Experiments allowing evaporation during irradiation have intermediate rate constants (e.g., k_corn?=?0.082?±?0.005?h^?1). Finally, identification of photoproducts was also examined on epicuticular waxes of corn and soybean plants for the first time.     

The Weakness of Tight Ties: Why Scientists Almost Destroyed the Coachella Valley Multispecies Habitat Conservation Plan in Order to Save it

Two groups of biologists were responsible for an unprecedented delay in completing a endangered species habitat conservation plan in the Coachella Valley of southern California. While antagonism grew as each group relentlessly promoted their perspective on whether to add a few areas to the habitat preserve, their inability to resolve their differences was not simply a matter of mistrust or poor facilitation. I analyze how these biologists practiced science in a way that supported specific institutional and ecological relationships that in turn provided a setting in which each group’s biological expertise was meaningful, credible, and useful. This tight coupling between scientific practice and society meant that something was more important to these scientists than finishing the plan. For both factions of biologists, ensuring the survival of native species in the valley rested on their ability to catalyze institutional relationships that were compatible with their scientific practice. Understanding this co-production of science and the social order is a first step toward effectively incorporating different experts in negotiation and implementation of technically complex collaborative agreements.