Vorlesungs- und Seminarprojekt ‘Globale Zukunftsfragen’

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Effects of time-averaging climate parameters on predicted multicompartmental fate of pesticides and POPs

With the aim to investigate the justification of time-averaging of climate parameters in multicompartment modelling the effects of various climate parameters and different modes of entry on the predicted substances' total environmental burdens and the compartmental fractions were studied. A simple, non-steady state zero-dimensional (box) mass-balance model of intercompartmental mass exchange which comprises four compartments was used for this purpose. Each two runs were performed, one temporally unresolved (time-averaged conditions) and a time-resolved (hourly or higher) control run. In many cases significant discrepancies are predicted, depending on the substance and on the parameter. We find discrepancies exceeding 10% relative to the control run and up to an order of magnitude for prediction of the total environmental burden from neglecting seasonalities of the soil and ocean temperatures and the hydroxyl radical concentration in the atmosphere and diurnalities of atmospheric mixing depth and the hydroxyl radical concentration in the atmosphere. Under some conditions it was indicated that substance sensitivity could be explained by the magnitude of the sink terms in the compartment(s) with parameters varying. In general, however, any key for understanding substance sensitivity seems not be linked in an easy manner to the properties of the substance, to the fractions of its burden or to the sink terms in either of the compartments with parameters varying. Averaging of diurnal variability was found to cause errors of total environmental residence time of different sign for different substances. The effects of time-averaging of several parameters are in general not additive but synergistic as well as compensatory effects occur. An implication of these findings is that the ranking of substances according to persistence is sensitive to time resolution on the scale of hours to months. As a conclusion it is recommended to use high temporal resolution in multi-media modelling.     

Analysis of groundwater contamination using concentration-time series recorded during an integral pumping test: bias introduced by strong concentration gradients within the plume

When only few monitoring wells are available to assess the extent and level of groundwater contamination, inversion of concentration breakthrough curves acquired during an integral pumping test can be used as an alternative quantification method. The idea is to use concentration-time series recorded during integral pumping tests through an inversion technique to estimate contaminant mass fluxes crossing a control plane. In this paper, we examine how a longitudinal concentration gradient along a contaminant plume length scale affects the estimated inversed-concentration distribution and its associated mass flux. The analytically inversed-concentration distribution at the imaginary control plane (ICP) is compared to a numerically generated concentration distribution, treating the latter one as a "real contaminant plume" characterized by the presence of a longitudinal concentration gradient. It is found that the analytically inversed-concentration can lead to overestimation or underestimation of concentration distribution values depending on the transport time period and dispersivity values. At lower dispersivity values, with shorter transport time periods, the analytically inversed-concentration distribution overestimates the "real" concentration distribution. A better fit of the estimated concentration distribution to the "real" one is observed when the transport time period increases, i.e. when the advective front has already crossed the ICP. However, for higher dispersivity values, underestimation of the real concentration distribution is observed. Deviation of the inversed-concentration distribution from the "real" one is assessed for a site-specific concentration gradient term. A concentration gradient adjusted contaminant mass flux is thus formulated to evaluate groundwater contamination levels at a given time period through an ICP. This concentration gradient ratio can indicate whether the ICP is well positioned to evaluate accurately contaminant mass fluxes which are representative of groundwater contamination levels.     

Substrate choice and settlement preferences of planula larvae of five Scyphozoa (Cnidaria) from German Bight,North Sea

The settlement behaviour of planula larvae and their development to young polyps was investigated in laboratory experiments in five scyphozoan species [Aurelia aurita (L.), Cyanea capillata (L.), Cyanea lamarckii Péron and Leseur, Chrysaora hysoscella (L.), and Rhizostoma octopus (L.)]. The undersides of settling plates were strongly preferred for settlement. Shells, the only natural substrate type offered, were less attractive than artificial substrates (concrete, machined wood, polyethylene, and glass). The advantages of colonization of substrate undersides for survival and reproduction of polyps are discussed. It is supposed that the increase of artificial substrates in our seas, due to marine litter pollution and submarine building activities, enlarge the areas of distribution of scyphozoan polyps, in coastal as well as in off-shore regions. Subsequent increases in ephyra production by polyps are probably one reason for the increase in mass occurrences of jellyfish recognized worldwide during the last few decades. It is suggested that the early developmental stages in the cnidarian life cycle, the planula larvae, and the polyps, play the key role in the development of jellyfish outbursts.     

Systematische Exploration stoffbezogener Umweltproblematiken

With the aim of providing results for precautionary environmental politics at an early point in time, a strategy is being sought to optimize the identification of research objects in substance-related environmental research. Both, proven as well as potential substance risks are considered as such. This approach is meant to support pro-active elements in environmental chemistry (as opposited to re-active elements associated with environmental damage). In the atmosphere, substance risks are created by perturbations of functions of the atmosphere and of other natural spheres, as far as atmospheric functions are part of the cause-effect relationships. A complete risk assessment includes exposure and effects analyses, a prerequisite for the latter is the identification of critical effect thresholds (in general: criticalities). However, the state of knowledge in many cases does not allow for a quantitative analysis of the cause-effect relationships. Exposure analysis can be significant for the identification of relevant research objects, because the quantification of the spatial and temporal extent of the potential damage constitutes an important risk category which can be addressed by exposure analysis. Examples for priority issues of substance-related environmental research are given based on combined exposure and effect analyses, as well as on exposure analyses alone. References for the knowledge production process in substance-related environmental science are provided in the field of risk assessment and using the syndrome concept.